The events of Wild Card weekend mean that 2020 will give us the most inexperienced group of playoff quarterbacks the AFC has seen in over a decade. This game is actually the more experienced of the two games, with both quarterbacks having two playoff games under their belt. The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to gain traction early coming off their bye week, while the Houston Texans will be hoping to repeat their exploits earlier this season in Arrowhead. The most exciting aspect of this matchup is that we could be seeing the first in a long line of playoff battles between Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Watson and the Texans enter this game 1-0 in the head-to-head, but the Chiefs will be desperate not to waste the home-field advantage in this one. Let’s take a look at the picks that our NFL betting team has for this Texans vs. Chiefs AFC divisional battle.
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Time: 3:05 pm EST
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
O/U: 50
Ever since the line opened at a seven-point margin on this game, we have seen it slowly creeping its way towards the Chiefs. The number of bets on this game has evened out, but the money is still in favor of the Chiefs, and we may see it go another half a point before kickoff. The total has also been moving up, with a huge 80% of the money coming in on the over. After opening at 49, you can currently get the total at either 50 or 51. It would not be surprising if we see that get to 52 or even 53 by kickoff.
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Bet predictions from Ben Rolfe
This game is bizarre because of the way the Texans played for large parts of the Wild Card game against Buffalo. I am seriously concerned about what happens to them here. However, last week had so much pressure for Houston, that being at home may have been a negative for them in some respects. In fact, NRG Stadium has not been a fun place for the Texans. Yes, they have a 6-3 record at home, with one of those losses being resting players, but they have gone just 3-6 ATS, demonstrating they have just been scraping by. In contrast, they went 5-2-1 ATS on the road, with their only blowout defeat being in Baltimore.
The problem is that the Chiefs have been excellent down the stretch, winning six straight and outscoring their opponents by 61 combined points in their last three home games. In those six games, their defense has come to the fore, allowing a total of just 69 points. Watson will be by far the most talented quarterback of their six games, but can the Texans keep it close?
I think they can. J.J. Watt is back, and Watson is the type of player you can never really write off. Will Fuller will be another x-factor in this game. If he is on the field, I think the Texans can win, but I am going to hedge my bets. With the Chiefs such heavy favorites, I am going to tease the spread through 10 and 14, all the way to 15.5, and combine that by moving the total down to 44 and taking the over. At least one of these teams should get to 30, and the other has every chance of getting to 20.
1u – Teaser: Texans +16 & Over 45 Total Points | -120
Bet predictions from Ryan Gosling
Sunday, we get an exciting matchup between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. Most of Houston’s team statistical rankings will surprise you because, when they are bad, the Texans are really bad. The upside, however, is high, and the visitors have a lot going for them. They come into KC as 9.5 point road dogs.
J.J. Watt is rounding back into form. WR Will Fuller, whose absence against Buffalo was significant, is expected to return in his role of stretching the defense. QB Deshaun Watson has become a playmaker supreme who inspires confidence in the offense. They might have gotten into a 16 point hole against Buffalo last week, but they came back for the impressive OT win.
Houston failed to cover in only two road games this season, while Chiefs coach Andy Reid is on a 2-5 ATS playoff slide. The Texans also won at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 6. I think the Chiefs get the win but tease them down. They will pull this off by a field goal.
2u – Teaser: Chiefs -1.5 & Ravens -2 | -120
Bet predictions from Jason Sarney
Houston travels to Kansas City in a spicy BBQ matchup of quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes can thank the Miami Dolphins for his week of rest, and Deshaun Watson is coming off an iconic sack escape to send the Texans to the Divisional round. The Chiefs are the better team. Combine that with the extra week to prepare and heal, and it will be too much for the Texans, who won’t be able to keep up with Mahomes and crew.
1u – Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 | -107
1u – Over 51 Total Points | -110
Bet predictions from Chris Smith
Sometimes things look too good to be true because they’re actually true. Taking the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens in an advantage teaser will be the most popular NFL bet since the Cowboys-Saints teasers on Thanksgiving. Hopefully, that doesn’t bring up any bad memories for you. The Wild Card round saw two big underdog wins on the road with New England and New Orleans both being eliminated early. We could be in for more underdog winners this week as inflated lines in the divisional round traditionally lead to favorites failing to cover larger numbers. That said, higher seeds at home coming off the bye in this round are hitting nearly 70% straight up in these scenarios since the turn of the century. Teasing both the Chiefs and Ravens through the key numbers of 3 and 7 eliminates the worry of failing to cover a potential double-digit spread by kickoff.
Houston traveled to Kansas City and beat the Chiefs by a touchdown back in October of this season. However, this time around, the Chiefs will be well-rested, and it’s difficult to overstate the importance of Andy Reid having an extra week of preparation against a Bill O’Brien-coached team. Deshaun Watson was fantastic in the 4th quarter against Buffalo on Saturday night, but I suspect the revamped Chiefs defense will put pressure on the MVP candidate at Arrowhead Sunday afternoon. Patrick Mahomes has all of his weapons available on the other side of the football and could be due for a monster game against a weak Houston secondary.
2u – Teaser: Chiefs -1.5 & Ravens -2.5 | -140
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