In the seven-team NFL playoff format, only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye. The AFC’s home-field advantage race is a three-team competition. Who will end up No. 1 in the AFC?
With the help of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s run through the various scenarios and top-seed odds for the three teams with the clearest path to claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Updated AFC Clinching Scenario Results | Week 14
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Results
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) def. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Results
- Los Angeles Rams (7-6) def. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Sunday Night Football Results
- Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) def. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
According to PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, after the Week 14 slate, the Chiefs currently have a 81.1% chance to win the AFC, the Bills sit at 11.5% after their loss, and the Steelers at 4.2%. These numbers will update as games are finished throughout the week.
Below, you can see the playoff scenarios heading into Week 14.
How Can the Kansas City Chiefs Clinch AFC No. 1 Seed?
The defending Super Bowl champions got off to a 9-0 start before suffering a Week 11 road loss to the Buffalo Bills. Since then, they’ve barely escaped two of the worst teams in the league, narrowly defeating the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Chiefs continue to win despite not playing at their very best. You can always point to small things throughout any game, but if not for a blocked kick and a botched snap, this team could easily have lost three of its last four and be sitting at 9-3 in a fight to win the division. According to PFN’s Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, the Chiefs have the NFL’s eighth-best offense and 14th-best defense.
The Raiders fumble it, the Chiefs recover it to seal the game ‼️#LVvsKC on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/WvNvUONRM5— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2024
Kansas City’s performances are trending downward despite having played the NFL’s third-easiest schedule to this point. The PFN luck metric, which uses Offense+ and Defense+ numbers from each game to produce an expected win-loss record and calculate how many wins each team has above expectation, has the Chiefs graded as the “luckiest” team in the NFL, with 3.21 wins above expectation through 13 weeks. Still, the Chiefs deserve credit for recording 14 straight wins in one-score games.
Entering Week 14, the Chiefs have a 61.3% chance of landing the top seed, per PFN’s model. Kansas City still has the AFC’s best record but would lose to the Bills in a head-to-head tiebreaker for the top seed. So, the Chiefs must finish with at least one more win than Buffalo to finish higher in the standings.
As for the Steelers, the Chiefs will visit Pittsburgh in Week 17 for a game that could impact the standings depending on how the next few weeks shake out. If the Bills and Chiefs both lose at least one game before then, the Steelers could be playing for the No. 1 seed.
If the Chiefs win out, they will own the No. 1 seed. However, that won’t be easy, as they have the NFL’s seventh-hardest remaining schedule. Four of their final five games are against teams currently in the playoff picture (vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos).
How Can the Buffalo Bills Clinch AFC No. 1 Seed?
The Buffalo Bills are growing in confidence on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. According to PFN’s Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, the Bills have the NFL’s fifth-best offense and 12th-best defense.
After their Sunday Night Football win over the San Francisco 49ers, PFN’s model gives the Bills a 29.5% chance of landing the top seed.
Because the Bills defeated the Chiefs in Week 11, they hold the tiebreaker over Kansas City, so Buffalo’s easiest path to the No. 1 seed is if it wins out and K.C. drops a game.
However, the Bills are about to head on a tough two-game road trip against the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. If they come out of that 2-0, their odds of capturing the No. 1 seed will increase significantly since their final three games are much easier (vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots).
It’s hard to envision the Chiefs losing more than two games the rest of the way, so the Bills can probably only afford one more loss — if any.
How Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Clinch AFC No. 1 Seed?
It’s hard to believe the Steelers even are in this position, but they are. Credit to head coach Mike Tomlin and his perpetual streak of non-losing seasons.
After their 44-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, the Steelers have a 4.6% chance of landing the No. 1 seed. It’s obviously a long shot, but it’s not impossible!
As mentioned previously, the Steelers will host the Chiefs in Week 17. They’ll need to win that game (and several others) to have any chance of earning the top seed.
Pittsburgh isn’t in control of its own destiny — it could win out and still finish with just the No. 3 seed. However, the Steelers would claim the No. 1 seed if they go undefeated down the stretch and the Bills and Chiefs both drop two games.
There are also ways for the Steelers to win the tiebreaker against the Bills, but there are too many permutations to accurately determine that right now. Since the two teams don’t play each other, conference records would be the first tiebreaker. Both have a pair of AFC losses, though the Steelers have played one fewer conference game.
Here’s the issue for Pittsburgh: their remaining schedule is brutal. It only ranks as the eighth-toughest in the NFL because the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns are bottom-10 teams in PFN’s rankings, but that’s misleading. Those teams have already proven they can challenge the Steelers. Then, there is a road rematch against the Baltimore Ravens and games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Chiefs.
Sitting at 9-3 in first place in the division, the Steelers have a 95.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 62.4% chance of winning the AFC North. However, with such a tough remaining schedule, it seems very unlikely Pittsburgh will land the conference’s top seed.