Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen is nearing the end of his career. After looking washed last season, does Thielen have a rebound year in him on his new team? Should fantasy football managers draft Thielen at his ADP this season?
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Adam Thielen’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Thielen said he went to the Panthers because he wants to win. I guess Thielen thinks he’s playing another 3-4 years because the Panthers are not particularly close to winning. Based on his performance last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if 2023 is Thielen’s last year.
Just two short years ago, Thielen averaged 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game. He commanded a 21% target share and was targeted on 22.8% of his routes run. He was also a priority end-zone target for Kirk Cousins, scoring 10 times in 13 games.
Last year, Thielen’s target share dropped to 17%. He was targeted on just 17.2% of his routes run. He played all 17 games but scored only six times. Thielen averaged 1.15 yards per route run, outside the top 80.
The man was on the field and running more routes than almost every other player in football. Yet, he couldn’t command volume. Why? He’s done.
Father Time remains undefeated. And in 2022, he claimed Thielen. If Thielen were still the guy from 2018-2021, the Vikings wouldn’t have cut him.
Now, Thielen seeks to continue his career on a new team with a rookie quarterback. It’s just not a recipe for success.
Historically, wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks are bad investments. The ones that are able to break through are truly elite talents.
Thielen was always better than he was given credit for. But at age 33, it’s over. Even if he runs a ton of routes, it’s difficult to see him performing any better than he did last season when he averaged 10.6 ppg.
The Panthers also signed DJ Chark and drafted Jonathan Mingo in the second round. Thielen and Chark will start to open the season, but there’s no allegiance to either of them. If Mingo outplays Thielen, he could take his job. There are just multiple ways for Thielen to fail and no realistic path in which he succeeds.
Is Thielen a Good Fantasy Pick?
Drafting Thielen is not going to sink your season. He has an ADP of WR54, No. 151 overall. If you do take him, he will be your WR5 or WR6. You’re probably going to end up dropping whoever you take instead of Thielen, anyway.
With that said, those later rounds are the time for home-run swings. Take a shot on players with high ceilings. No one going that late has a high probability of success.
Thielen’s best-case scenario is volume-based low WR3. And even that feels overly ambitious. You are far better off taking a young, unproven player with an unknown ceiling.
I have Thielen ranked at WR59, which is exactly where we have him in our PFN consensus rankings. I can confidently tell you I will not be drafting him anywhere.