With just eight days until the 2023 NFL Draft, Aaron Rodgers remains on the Green Bay Packers‘ roster. Although it’s been more than a month since Rodgers stated his intention to play for the New York Jets next season, there’s been little movement on a possible trade. But recent news indicates that a deal could take place in the near future.
Will Aaron Rodgers Be Traded Before the Draft?
Appearing on The Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said that while it appears the Packers and Jets are still at something of an impasse, a Rodgers trade could be completed in advance of the draft.
“It doesn’t even sound like there’s been much conversation,” Rapoport said. ” … At the last minute it can get done, it’ll probably get done, so I would imagine that’s next week.”
Recent reporting from Yahoo’s Charles Robinson indicated that the Packers are looking for a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 first-round pick in exchange for Rodgers. Additionally, Green Bay is willing to send a conditional 2025 selection to New York if Rodgers retires after the 2023 campaign.
However, Robinson added that Jets owner Woody Johnson is “not gonna do it.” Fearful of the Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford trade outcomes, Johnson reportedly worries that New York could end up sacrificing a top-10 selection to the Packers if something goes wrong next season.
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In addition to the 13th overall pick, the Jets also own two choices in the second round. They acquired the No. 42 selection by trading wide receiver Elijah Moore to the Cleveland Browns earlier this year, and they organically hold the No. 43 slot.
While Rapoport suggested a Rodgers trade could occur next week, ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently indicated a deal is unlikely to be completed before the draft. Of course, those two statements aren’t necessarily incongruous. The Jets and Packers could agree to a trade during the draft or after the event is complete.
New York’s best strategy might be refusing to seriously engage in trade discussions until the draft is over. At that point, Gang Green won’t have to worry about giving up 2023 picks. If Rodgers plays well next season, the Jets’ 2023 first-rounder will likely be a lower selection than No. 13.
Every bit of news around the Rodgers trade hints that a deal will get done. The Packers talk about Rodgers in the past tense. Jets general manager Joe Douglas told a New York crowd that Rodgers is “gonna be here.”
But it feels like we’ll have to wait for next week until we see any serious movement.
Could a Post-June 1 Rodgers Trade Make Sense?
If a Rodgers trade doesn’t come together next week, it might behoove the Packers to wait until after June 1 to make a deal.
As with post-June 1 releases, post-June 1 trades allow the selling team to spread out the exiting player’s dead money across two seasons. For Green Bay, waiting until June would mean they’d take on $15.8 million of dead money in 2023 and $24.5 million in 2024.
The Packers would have to carry Rodgers at his current salary cap figure until June, but that probably doesn’t matter all that much to the team’s decision-makers. Green Bay already has plenty of cap space at $21+ million. And they’ve been among the least active teams in free agency, with long-snapper Matt Orzech being their only external addition.
It’s important to note that while teams can designate a player as a post-June 1 release while cutting him earlier in the year, there’s no such thing as a post-June 1 trade designation. The Packers and Jets would simply have to wait until after June 1 to complete the Rodgers swap.
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A delay isn’t likely to concern New York, either. A veteran like Rodgers might not have even participated in the Jets’ offseason program. And he’s already intimately familiar with New York’s offensive scheme after they hired former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett in the same role.
A draft week Rodgers trade now looks like the target for the Jets and Packers. But if nothing happens next week, a postponement until June might be the best option.