The NFL is officially on vacation, but the NFL noise machine never sleeps. So stories that would probably otherwise be ignored get real traction.
The latest example: A report from new FS1 host Craig Carton this week that the New England Patriots made a play for Aaron Rodgers prior to his trade to the New York Jets, but that Rodgers vetoed the deal.
Did Aaron Rodgers Veto Trade to New England Patriots?
Carton said the following Wednesday morning:
“The New England Patriots made an offer to the Green Bay Packers to get Aaron Rodgers, and when Aaron Rodgers heard it, his agent said no. We ain’t playing for New England. We want to be a Jet.”
Considering this is the only outlet so far that’s reported this news (as far as we’re aware), it’s wise to proceed with caution. Perhaps it’s true. But unless Rodgers, Bill Belichick (LOL), or Brian Gutekunst cops to it, we’ll never know for sure.
But that doesn’t mean we cannot speculate about what Earth 2 would look like if that counterfactual was actually factual.
So let’s get to it.
What New England Patriots Would Look Like With Aaron Rodgers
If this is true, it’s just another data point proving that Belichick has some reservations about Mac Jones, to put it kindly.
And he’d be well within his rights. Jones in Year 2 went 6-8 as a starter, completing 65.2% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, averaged 6.8 passing yards per attempt, and posted a meager passer rating (84.8) and QBR (36.2).
He was arguably no better than rookie Bailey Zappe (2-0, 70.7%, 5-3, 8.5 Y/A, 100.9 rating and 34.5 QBR).
It should be said that Jones has had a positive offseason. He looked good in spring ball, Belichick has voiced his support, and his new offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien, is a big upgrade over his clown show predecessor, Matt Patricia.
But c’mon. Mac Jones is and never will be Aaron Rodgers.
And there’s a reason Caesars lists the Patriots at 60-1 to win the Super Bowl, +800 to win the AFC East, +250 to make the playoffs, and with a 7.5 win total over/under.
But the Patriots, with Rodgers and a top-five defense, would likely be the frontrunners to win the AFC East and a real threat to unseat the Kansas City Chiefs as Super Bowl champs. They certainly had the resources to make such a deal. New England entered the offseason with roughly $50 million in projected 2023 salary cap space, fourth-most in football.
None of the players they used most of that money on — Jonathan Jones (2/$19M), JuJu Smith-Schuster (3/$25.5M), Riley Reiff (1/$5M), Jabrill Peppers (2/$9M), Mike Gesicki (1/$4.5M), and Jalen Mills (1/$3.8M) — were irreplaceable.
When you can get a player like Rodgers, you are OK with tradeoffs.
And really, would there have been any price Belichick wouldn’t have been willing to pay to win a Super Bowl without Tom Brady?
What New York Jets Would Look Like Without Rodgers
The Jets might have had the best defense with the worst quarterback situation in football in 2022. There’s zero chance Woody Johnson was going to let Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas roll with Zach Wilson or Mike White as his starter in 2023.
So the Jets were always going to be big players in the 2023 quarterback market. In Rodgers, they landed the biggest fish, even if that fish doesn’t swim as fast as he once did.
Rodgers is a four-time MVP and the most talented quarterback to ever play for the Jets, even after an 8-9 2022 season in which he completed 64.6% of his passes for 26 TDs, 12 INTs, a 6.8 Y/A average, and a 91.1 rating.
Not only were the Jets OK giving up significant trade compensation for Rodgers, they were OK swallowing his nearly $60 million, fully-guaranteed roster bonus, which they essentially delayed paying for a year with a contract restructure.
But that wasn’t the only condition the Jets had to meet to land Rodgers. They also reunited him with Allen Lazard (four years, $44 million) and Randall Cobb (one year, $3 million). It’s fair to wonder if either receiver would be in Gang Green without Rodgers signing on.
But of course, the biggest butterfly effect from Rodgers joining the Pats is what the Jets would have done at QB.
The Jets almost certainly would have targeted Derek Carr (who ended up with the Saints) or Jimmy Garoppolo (the Raiders) if Rodgers said no, and perhaps would have made a long-shot attempt to land Lamar Jackson (who signed the most lucrative contract in NFL history, remaining with the Ravens).
Certainly, with Carr or Garoppolo, the Jets wouldn’t be 15-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and better than even money to make the playoffs.
But they on paper would still have been much better than they were a year ago.
Would they have competed for the AFC East? Probably not, considering what the Patriots, Dolphins, and Bills rosters would look like. But they would have been in the playoff hunt, and the AFC East might have been the NFL’s best division since going to its expanded format in 2002.
