It’s been two years since we saw Aaron Rodgers play any real football. It’s been three years since we saw him play it at a level that would make an impact in fantasy football.
Saddled with no shortage of weapons with the New York Jets, does Rodgers still have what it takes to be an elite fantasy QB?
Should You Select Aaron Rodgers at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 142nd Overall (QB19)
- Past Glory and Recent Struggles: Rodgers was once a fantasy powerhouse, winning back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021. However, his performance dipped significantly in 2022, where he averaged just 14.8 ppg and finished as the overall QB21. His 2023 season was cut short after only four plays due to a torn Achilles.
- Injury and Age Concerns: Rodgers is coming off a devastating Achilles injury and will turn 41 years old this season. While modern medicine offers hope for recovery, it’s uncertain if Rodgers can return to form and produce at a high level.
- Supporting Cast: The Jets have surrounded Rodgers with weapons, including Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and Malachi Corley. However, the biggest challenge will be whether Rodgers can still be a QB1 in a league that favors mobile quarterbacks.
- ADP Analysis: Rodgers’ ADP is currently QB19, the lowest of his career. While he’s likely to outperform this ADP, he remains a streaming candidate rather than a draftable asset in most leagues.
- Final Verdict: Rodgers could surprise fantasy managers with strong performances, but his lack of mobility and the challenges of returning from injury make him a risky pick. It’s safer to leave him on the waiver wire and pick him up if he shows signs of life early in the season.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Aaron Rodgers
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. We’ve listed the consensus QB rankings for your reference.
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
15) Jared Goff, QB | Detroit Lions
16) Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Miami Dolphins
17) Justin Herbert, QB | Los Angeles Chargers
18) Trevor Lawrence, QB | Jacksonville Jaguars
19) Aaron Rodgers, QB | New York Jets
20) Matthew Stafford, QB | Los Angeles Rams
21) Deshaun Watson, QB | Cleveland Browns
22) Baker Mayfield, QB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23) Will Levis, QB | Tennessee Titans
24) Geno Smith, QB | Seattle Seahawks
Rodgers’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
The last time we thought Rodgers was cooked was in 2019. He averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB14. As a result, he entered the 2020 season with the lowest ADP of his career.
All Rodgers did after that was win back-to-back MVPs. He averaged 24.3 points per game in 2020, the second-highest number of his career. In 2021, Rodgers posted 21.1 ppg.
Heading into the 2022 season, fantasy managers were no longer doubting Rodgers. He’ll be done when he retires. Naturally, with restored faith, Rodgers had the worst season of his career, averaging a paltry 14.8 ppg, finishing as the overall QB21.
Unfortunately, that is our last real memory of Rodgers. Well, apart from him walking off the field after four plays last season due to a torn Achilles.
Here is where we stand: We have a quarterback who will turn 41 years old before the end of the year, and he’s coming off one of the most devastating injuries an NFL player can sustain.
Although it’s his second year with the Jets, we’ve yet to see Rodgers actually perform with his current team. And, to top it all off, the last time we saw Rodgers, he showed significant signs of decline.
How does Rodgers overcome all of this to return to fantasy greatness? It starts with the magic of modern medicine.
Rodgers’ age doesn’t help the cause, but he’s not exactly a mobile guy anymore. A stationary Rodgers should still be able to protect himself in the pocket. Given that he tore his Achilles in Week 1, he should have no issues pushing off the previously injured foot.
As for his chemistry with his team, we’re banking on the talent around him. Garrett Wilson looks like one of the most gifted wide receivers in the league. The additions of Mike Williams and Malachi Corley can’t possibly be worse than the complete disasters that were Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb last season.
The biggest challenge, though, is whether Rodgers can still be a QB1 in a modern NFL that so heavily favors rushing quarterbacks. Yes, we saw him do it in 2020, but it took 48 passing touchdowns. Rodgers will have to get to at least 35 to have any semblance of a shot this season. That is asking a lot.
Is Rodgers a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Odds are, Rodgers will end up outperforming his ADP. Rodgers is going off the board as the QB19, the lowest ADP of his career. It may be shocking for us old-timers to see, but Rodgers is very likely to go undrafted in most fantasy leagues.
Of course, there’s no chance Rodgers remains on the waiver wire all season. There will inevitably be matchups where he’s a viable streamer.
But should you draft him? I can’t endorse that.
I have Rodgers ranked as my QB19. But the reality is any QB ranked outside the top 15 or so is not someone I am looking to draft. At that point, they’re pretty much all the same — they’re in-season streaming candidates, at best.
If Rodgers pops off for 300 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 and looks like his old self, fantasy managers will undoubtedly flock to the waiver wire to pick him up. It’s certainly possible. As a quick aside, Rodgers had exactly zero 300-yard passing games when we last saw him play in 2022.
But in the year 2024, my quarterbacks need some semblance of mobility. Rodgers just doesn’t fit the bill.