After one of the best seasons for a quarterback in recent memory, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has somehow found a way to raise his fantasy outlook despite sustained high-level play for many years. Now fully committed for the 2021 season, how should fantasy football managers approach Rodgers on draft day, and should he be considered at his current ADP?
Aaron Rodgers’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Age is nothing but a number to Rodgers. Despite turning 37 during the 2020 season, Rodgers had arguably his best season yet. That is saying something, given he is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Super Bowl champion, former league MVP, and possibly the most talented QB in NFL history.
Completing 372 of his 526 attempts, Rodgers threw for 4,299 yards for an astounding 48 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. While not exactly fleet of foot, he also churned out 149 yards on 38 rushes for 3 more touchdowns. His 48 passing TDs were a career-high, along with his 70.7% completion percentage and 9.1% TD rate.
Averaging 24.2 fantasy points per game, Rodgers was the QB3 overall in fantasy (4 pt per TD). It’s the consistency of Rodgers that is so impressive. Since 2011, when playing in 15 or more games, he has never finished outside the top 10 in QB rankings, with five seasons inside the top three.
After an offseason filled with speculation, appearances on Jeopardy, trips to Hawaii, shots across the bow from the management, and panic at 1265 Lombardi Ave., Rodgers gave us all the answer we hoped for with his intention to return for the 2021 season.
That exhale you just heard was every Packers fan breathing a sigh of relief and fantasy managers’ excitement looking to target the Packers again this season.
Rodgers is a locked-in QB1 but will regress in 2021
Paired with perhaps the best receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams, a revelation at TE with Robert Tonyan, Aaron Jones in the backfield, along with complementary pieces scattered across the offense, Rodgers is primed for another successful season.
With that said, do not take the lack of turnover as a sign of guaranteed performance. I am bullish on Rodgers, but it would be naive to expect another 48-touchdown season. Regression will come. The question is by how much.
He is a locked-in QB1 with top-six upside. But the lack of rushing compared to his contemporaries keeps Rodgers from pushing for the QB1 overall spot.
Fantasy projection
At least to this point, we have a relatively clear idea of what the Packers want to do under head coach Matt LaFleur.
As an offense, the Packers ran 62.8 plays per game last year (63.2 in 2019) while passing on 56.2% of the plays (59.8% in 2019). In 2021, Adams will lead all receivers with nearly 33% of the targets. Tight ends will be around 18 to 19%. Meanwhile, running backs will be around 22 to 24%, and the remaining 27% will split amongst the rest of the pass catchers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Amari Rodgers, and Randall Cobb.
We also know Aaron Rodgers will be hyper-efficient anytime he drops back to pass, averaging a 65% completion percentage and around 8 to 8.3 average intended yards per throw. We have enough of a sample size to know what to expect, which is refreshing for fantasy football in terms of projections and rankings.
Current projections have Rodgers slated for approximately 605 attempts, 4,750 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, along with an additional 150 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers’ ADP
According to Sleeper, Rodgers is currently the QB8 with an ADP of 76.1 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he jumps to 34.5. Meanwhile on Fleaflicker, Rodgers is the QB6 with a 53 ADP. On the high stakes NFC he is the QB8 at an ADP of 73.9.
Should you draft Rodgers in 2021 for fantasy?
While Rodgers was the QB3, it took a career year in many aspects to pull it off. And even then, he was beaten out by other QBs. Of the elite quarterbacks, Rodgers has one of, if not the safest floor. But I would argue that Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott have higher ceilings.
It comes down to how you like to build your fantasy roster. Shoot for upside or take the stable floor, which allows you a few more risks at other positions. It will cost a mid-round pick to acquire him, but we all know what an angry Rodgers can do, and that is a player I want on my fantasy team when given a chance.