The New York Jets will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Aaron Rodgers.
Is Aaron Rodgers Playing in Week 16?
Rodgers is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Jets’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Aaron Rodgers in Week 16?
Oh, buddy.
I get a hard time for my, let’s say, lack of word efficiency. If I were creating a résumé based on how I write, I’d flip that weakness into a strength and label it as an “unbridled work ethic that will stop at nothing to provide the most detailed and well-thought-out analysis.” But I get it, and you’re right.
More is more in my head when it comes to writing. Ask any boss I’ve worked for, ask my wife, ask my hot water-heater guy that I’m bouncing this Aaron Rodgers profile off of right now.
I’m wordy. Sue me.
For Rodgers, it’s deserving. My hunch is that you’ve seen the clips of him throwing Davante Adams open, racking up 600+ yards over a two-week Florida spin, and generally playing with a smile on his face. That’s all great and maybe you took a flier on him at the beginning of the month and are benefiting in a major way.
Great. Love that for you.
But does any of that production get you a win in Week 16? Not in my leagues, so let’s evaluate this week as its own entity.
This season, 39.1% of Rodgers’ touchdown passes have come from outside the red zone, an unsustainably high rate. The league average trends around 70%, and while Rodgers doesn’t have to apologize for the chunk plays resulting in touchdowns, it’s not the easiest thing to continue doing at any point, let alone as the weather flips.
Counting on those scores becomes even more difficult against a Rams defense. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass from outside the red zone in four of its past six games and in seven of 11 after a slow start. They also happen to grade out as the sixth-best red-zone defense in the NFL, so banking on red-zone touchdown pass regression for Rodgers isn’t exactly a safe bet, either.
There’s more.
In Aaron Donald’s last Defensive Player of the Year season (2020), the Rams created pressure on 44.2% of blitzes. That’s a strong mark that ranked sixth that season, with the Chiefs leading the way at 49.8%.
The Rams currently sit at 50%. Now we are onto something. Since the beginning of 2022, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown on 3.4% of such (pressured while blitzed) attempts. I assume you need context on that rate, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.
- NFL average: 4.8%
Need more? Fine, needy reader. The almighty quartet of Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew II, Mac Jones, and Daniel Jones have a 3.5% pass touchdown rate over that stretch.
Not pretty.
Rodgers has been absurdly productive over the past two weeks in play-action situations (19.9 yards per completion and 11.6 yards per attempt), but why fake the run if it’s not being stopped?
Through 15 weeks, against running backs, the Rams rank 22nd in rushing TD rate inside the five-yard line, 25th in EPA, and 26th in third-down conversion rate.
With freezing temperatures expected at MetLife with some wind to consider, looking for a 41-year-old to sustain the excellence he showed in sunny Florida recently is optimistic.
So, yeah, the fact that Rodgers has thrown for more yards in consecutive second halves than he did in any of his three full games prior is a fun and accurate stat. I want to see discount double-check celebrations at the end of a lost season as much as anyone, but there’s not a chance I’m putting the fate of my fantasy season in Rodgers’ hands in this ultra-specific spot.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 16
As of Sunday morning, Rodgers is projected to score 13.6 fantasy points in Week 16. This includes 185.6 passing yards, 1.4 passing touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions. It also includes 1.4 rushing attempts for 4.4 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Rams' Defense
The Rams' defense had been recovering from a terrible start to become a league-average unit. The slow start, coupled with the disastrous Week 14 showing against Buffalo, still keeps this unit near the bottom of the rankings, but Los Angeles bounced back in a big way last Thursday night.
The win over the 49ers resulted in an 84.1 (B) grade, the Rams' second-best in a game this season behind the Week 7 win vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. Los Angeles had the second-best pass defense success rate (73.5%) of any team in Week 15 while also allowing its fewest yards per play (3.6) in a game this year.
Most of the Rams' season-long numbers look ugly, but the one area they've thrived in all year is red-zone defense. Los Angeles has the sixth-best red-zone defense (50%), though the 49ers weren't even able to reach inside the 20. Still, that strength has helped compensate for the Rams not getting off the field very quickly (fifth-most yards allowed per drive).
The highs for this unit have been more frequent than its lows, despite the poor season-long ranking. Week 15 was the fourth time the Rams have finished with one of the five highest grades in a single week this season.
Conversely, they've only finished in the bottom five twice and the bottom 10 on five occasions. While the offense is still far likelier to carry the team to a playoff win, the defense's upside is higher than many realize.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Aaron Rodgers’ Week 16 Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 6:05 AM ET on Sunday, December 22. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 16 QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. NE)
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI (at WAS)
3) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. PIT)
4) Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. CLE)
5) Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. PHI)
6) Brock Purdy | SF (at MIA)
7) Sam Darnold | MIN (at SEA)
8) Kyler Murray | ARI (at CAR)
9) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (vs. SF)
10) Baker Mayfield | TB (at DAL)
11) Bo Nix | DEN (at LAC)
12) Jared Goff | DET (at CHI)
13) Jordan Love | GB (vs. NO)
14) Justin Herbert | LAC (vs. DEN)
15) Matthew Stafford | LAR (at NYJ)
16) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. HOU)
17) Anthony Richardson | IND (vs. TEN)
18) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at KC)
19) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. LAR)
20) Geno Smith | SEA (vs. MIN)
21) Russell Wilson | PIT (at BAL)
22) Drake Maye | NE (at BUF)
23) Bryce Young | CAR (vs. ARI)
24) Cooper Rush | DAL (vs. TB)
25) Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. DET)
26) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (at CIN)
27) Mac Jones | JAX (at LV)
28) Mason Rudolph | TEN (at IND)
29) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs. NYG)
30) Aidan O'Connell | LV (vs. JAX)
31) Spencer Rattler | NO (at GB)
32) Drew Lock | NYG (at ATL)
Rams at Jets Trends and Insights
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Los Angeles has won all four of their road games since the loss in Chicago back in Week 4, winning each of those games by a single possession.
QB: Matthew Stafford has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season when not pressured (two touchdowns and two picks when feeling the heat).
Offense: Los Angeles has converted eight-of-nine fourth down attempts over their past eight games after opening the season six-of-12.
Defense: The Rams forced a punt on 63.6% of 49er drives last week, the first time Los Angeles has posted a rate over 50% this season.
Fantasy: Puka Nacua had a historic rookie season – he’s averaging 6.1% more PPR fantasy points per target this season than last!
Betting: The Rams have covered six of eight games after opening the season 1-5 ATS.
New York Jets
Team: The Jets have scored 106 points over their past four games (previous six games: 101).
QB: Aaron Rodgers has thrown for at least 187 yards in consecutive second halves – this coming on the heels of three straight games in which he failed to reach that total.
Offense: Instances over the past 10 years in which a player had 190 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single half:
- Davante Adams Sunday vs. the Jaguars
- Ja'Marr Chase Week 10 vs. the Ravens
- Tyreek Hill 2020 vs. the Bucs
- Odell Beckham Jr. 2016 vs. the Ravens
Defense: The Jets allowed the Jaguars to pick up eight third downs on Sunday, the most New York has allowed in a game this season (15 attempts).
Fantasy: With Davante Adams breaking out, Garrett Wilson posted his first game this season with single-digit expected PPR points (9.7).
Betting: New York is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games (four of those losses came outright as a favorite).