New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers’ dynasty value is similar to his value to the organization — can he produce one more strong season? The future Hall of Famer is entering his age-40 season and is coming off of a torn Achilles injury, but we’ve seen great QBs age with grace recently, and that should give you some hope given the skill position talent on this roster.
What is Rodgers’ 2024 upside, and what should your roster look like if you’re considering targeting him? Let’s dig in!
Aaron Rodgers’ Dynasty Outlook
Rodgers was being drafted as a top 15 quarterback on a handful of fantasy football sites last season, and no one batted an eye. Yes, his age looms, but we were all encouraged about what he could do as the leader of an offense with two very promising skill-position players. Is the outlook just as rosy now as it was then?
Mike Tannenbaum suggests Russell Wilson should join the #Jets as Aaron Rodgers' backup. 🤯
(via @GetUpESPN)#BroncosCountry | #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/U2Q3Qw2RxQ
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) February 19, 2024
The four-time MVP walks into a situation that has some talent but not a ton of support up front, and if he is going to struggle at the level that his early redraft ADP suggests, that will be the culprit.
All quarterbacks age differently, but a decline in efficiency as the years pile up isn’t rare — the mind remains an elite weapon, but the body can’t do what it once could. In that vein, it shouldn’t be surprising that Rodgers saw regression in this regard in his final three seasons with the Green Bay Packers.
Rodgers’ pressured passer rating by season:
- 2020: 89.3
- 2021: 67.9
- 2022: 62.6
The Jets not only allowed sacks at the fourth-highest rate last season, but they also ranked 23rd in average yards per catch after the reception. Obviously, the quarterback plays a factor in both of those numbers, but the overarching fact is that this offensive line and set of secondary skill players is below average, a weakness that could leave Rodgers without enough upside to matter in 2024.
Rodgers’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Rodgers land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Rodgers lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI
3) Josh Allen | BUF
4) Anthony Richardson | IND
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) Lamar Jackson | BAL
7) C.J. Stroud | HOU
8) Justin Herbert | LAC
9) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
10) Dak Prescott | DAL
11) Justin Fields | CHI
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Kyler Murray | ARI
14) Brock Purdy | SF
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Deshaun Watson | CLE
17) Jared Goff | DET
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Will Levis | TEN
20) Sam Howell | WAS
21) Geno Smith | SEA
22) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
23) Bryce Young | CAR
24) Daniel Jones | NYG
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Baker Mayfield | TB
27) Kenny Pickett | PIT
28) Matthew Stafford | LAR
29) Desmond Ridder | ATL
30) Russell Wilson | DEN
31) Trey Lance | DAL
32) Mac Jones | NE
33) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
34) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
35) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
36) Andy Dalton | CAR
Should You Trade Rodgers in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Rodgers? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
The risk/reward conversation with Rodgers leans heavily in his favor at his current ADP in redraft and the perception of him in dynasty formats. No, there isn’t a long-term outlook to chase, but every season counts the same, and Rodgers could well prove to be a difference-maker in the short term.
“Could.” That doesn’t mean he “will” be, but at his current price tag, the risk you’re taking on is minimal.
The top per-game fantasy producers at the QB position in 2023 (minimum five games played)
- Josh Allen: 23.1 PPG
- Jalen Hurts: 21.0 (alpha receiver in A.J. Brown)
- Lamar Jackson: 20.7 PPG
- Joe Flacco: 20.2 PPG (alpha receiver in Amari Cooper)
- Dak Prescott: 20.2 PPG (alpha receiver in CeeDee Lamb)
- Jordan Love: 18.8 PPG
- Kirk Cousins: 18.7 PPG (alpha receiver in Justin Jefferson)
- Brock Purdy: 18.5 PPG (alpha receiver in Brandon Aiyuk)
- C.J. Stroud: 18.4 PPG (alpha receiver in Nico Collins)
See where I’m going here? If you think Garrett Wilson is the “alpha receiver” that I do, Rodgers has a path to a viable 2024 season. Obviously, most of those signal callers had more support than Rodgers has outside of his WR1, but the point remains that having a true top option is a great place to start.
While there isn’t currently a secondary pass catcher that jumps out at you (TE Tyler Conklin remains to be an underrated option but not as a No. 2 asset in a viable offense), the impact of RB Breece Hall should not be overlooked.
MORE: 2024 Dynasty QB Rankings
In a lost season where moving the ball through the air was a struggle, the Jets ranked second in receiving yards from the running back position (801 yards, behind only the Denver Broncos).
The cupboard isn’t completely bare in New York, and if Rodgers can elevate the production of a secondary option, he’s a good roll of the dice for win-now teams that are either struggling at the QB position or have taken on some risk by way of an Anthony Richardson-type QB1.
Read More 2024 Dynasty Profiles
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