New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is fresh off what is, by far, the worst fantasy season of his career. Between joining a new team and his advanced age, there’s definitely a chance Rodgers is unable to bounce back. Should fantasy football managers draft Rodgers at his ADP this season?
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Aaron Rodgers’ Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
For over a decade, Rodgers was an autostart elite QB1. From 2008-2014, Rodgers never finished lower than QB3! And it hasn’t been that long since Rodgers was an every-week QB1. Just three years ago, he averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game. Two years ago, he averaged 21.1 ppg.
The problem, of course, is Rodgers averaged just 14.8 ppg last season. It was his worst year ever, and it came right around the age at which you’d expect to see a guy like Rodgers have his worst year.
Whether you should draft Rodgers this year depends on why you think Rodgers had such a bad year. Last season, Rodgers operated without a true WR1 for the first time in his career. From Donald Driver to Greg Jennings to Jordy Nelson to Davante Adams, he’s always had “that guy.” After the Packers traded Adams to the Raiders, “that guy” wasn’t on the team.
Expecting Rodgers to maintain his elite status at age 38 throwing to Allen Lazard and two rookies just wasn’t realistic.
Additionally, Rodgers broke his right thumb early in the season and played through it. It’s impossible to know how much the injury affected his ability to throw, but it’s a certainty that it played a role. How could it not?
Now, Rodgers is fully healthy and has “that guy” once again in Garrett Wilson. The Jets boast a much stronger group of pass catchers than Rodgers had in his only bad season in Green Bay last year.
Of course, Rodgers is going to turn 40 years old before the season ends. Asking him to rebound at such an advanced age is historically a bad bet. But this is also one of the 10 best quarterbacks to ever set foot on an NFL field. If anyone can do it, it’s Rodgers.
Is Rodgers a Good Fantasy Pick?
Rodgers was nowhere close to being a startable fantasy QB last season, finishing outside the top 20. It does seem that fantasy managers are banking on a rebound, though, as evidenced by his QB12 ADP, No. 105 overall.
All things considered, it’s a reasonable price. We know what Rodgers’ ceiling is. We saw it in 2020 and 2021. While he’s unlikely to throw for anywhere near 48 touchdowns again like he did 2020, 40 is certainly in his range of outcomes.
The problem is that in the modern NFL, Rodgers needs to throw 40 touchdowns to post a QB1 finish. With so many mobile quarterbacks out there, quarterback scoring is up across the board. Rodgers’ 18.7 ppg was good for a QB2 finish back in 2008. When he posted 18.8 ppg in 2015, he finished as the QB11.
I have Rodgers ranked as my QB16. I am the lowest on him of our four analysts that make up our PFN consensus rankings.
It’s not that I don’t think Rodgers can bounce back. I would just rather take a shot on quarterbacks with more mobility, and thus higher ceilings, than the 39-year-old pocket passer rebounding.