For each of the last 31 seasons, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have served as the Green Bay Packers’ franchise quarterbacks. After 16 years at the helm in Green Bay, Favre left for the New York Jets for his age-39 campaign. And after 15 years at the same helm, the 39-year-old Rodgers has also left for the Jets.
Favre flopped in New York, leading the league with 22 interceptions for the non-playoff-bound Jets. Now it’s Rodgers’ turn to either one-up his long-ago predecessor or follow in similar footsteps. What can we expect from Rodgers in the 2023 season?
Does Aaron Rodgers Still Have the Stuff?
Rodgers’ final season in Green Bay is a rough way to judge an aging talent. After all, it marked the first time in his career that he lacked a consistent No. 1 receiver. Two of his top three wideouts were rookies who missed 3+ games each. Allen Lazard was thrust into a primary role, dropping six passes and getting targeted on five Rodgers interceptions.
Yet Rodgers also struggled more than usual with the deep ball. Despite having one of the best starting running backs (and a top-notch complementary back) at his disposal, his offense frequently stalled near the end zone.
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In fact, they had the 10th-lowest red-zone TD efficiency (51.9%) after leading the league only two years earlier (76.8%). It was their first trip to the bottom 10 since 2013 — not coincidentally the year Rodgers missed seven games.
That’s why it’s so difficult to gauge Rodgers’ current abilities as he transitions to the Jets — albeit, with some of his old Packers friends along for the ride.
Ascending Jets Skill Players?
On paper, the 2023 Jets’ offense looks better than the 2022 Packers’ offense. Excluding Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for obvious reasons, we can envision Garrett Wilson as the closest thing Rodgers has had to Davante Adams since Adams walked away last year. Mecole Hardman was a decent offseason get, while Corey Davis (assuming he remains a key part of this franchise’s plans) can only benefit from catching balls thrown by his best QB … well, presumably ever.
The backfield can be as good as Green Bay’s if Breece Hall picks up where he left off before last year’s season-ending injury. Following Rodgers’ trade to the Jets, Hall took to Twitter to say, “My Knee feel a lil healthier now,” so it’s safe to say he’s a fan of the move. And Hall’s backfield supporting cast could be one of the NFL’s best, especially if guys like Michael Carter are utilized effectively in the passing game.
In other words, even Rodgers at 75% of his peak abilities would still mark a meaningful upgrade over every QB the Jets have thrown into this offense since … well, presumably since the franchise was born. Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015) and Ken O’Brien (1985) posted the best numbers this team has witnessed. Rodgers possesses the talent and playmakers to produce the best QB campaign in franchise history.
Throw in the fact he is reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who Rodgers stated was the “one coach who has meant as much to me as any coach I’ve ever had,” and the veteran QB should be most comfortable in New York.
Rodgers 2023 Predictions
If you play fantasy, you might know that until last season, Rodgers had been a top-nine fantasy QB in every season when he’d started 10+ games. But in 2022, he was the overall QB13. And among quarterbacks who played 10+ games, he was merely the QB21 in fantasy points per game.
Making matters worse, the Packers had a relatively easy schedule. Their opponents’ win-loss-tie record from a year earlier was 137-151-1. He played six games against the NFC North’s Bears, Vikings, and Lions. The Bears yielded the most points last season. The Vikings and Lions tied for the fifth-most points surrendered. But the Packers averaged a modest 21.3 points in those six contests.
Here’s my theory: I think the Jets don’t want Rodgers to throw it 40 times a game, or even 35. He averaged 31.9 last year, backed by a worse defense than what he’ll enjoy in New York. Granted, those six AFC East games will be rough.
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But Rodgers is already No. 10 on the all-time regular-season pass-attempt list. Assuming Matt Ryan doesn’t find an NFL home, Rodgers will enter 2023 as the active leader in this category. Among the 18 other quarterbacks who have cracked 6,000 regular-season pass attempts, nearly all have begun noticeable declines between 6,000 and 8,000.
The Jets signed him for one reason: to help them win a Super Bowl. That’s it. It’s not to go 10-7, eke into the postseason behind a beaten-up Rodgers, and get knocked out in the first round by the Jaguars.
As a result, his health is uniquely important to this franchise. I’m not saying QB health isn’t essential to every other franchise. It is. Hugely. But the Jets are betting on this aging veteran, who appeared to take a step back last year, to be in prime form by January. They want and need the best of Rodgers when it matters most.
I’m betting that the Jets will lean heavily on their backfield and defense, just as they did last year, especially when Hall was healthy en route to a 5-2 start. For Rodgers, 3,500-3,800 passing yards and 24-28 passing TDs seem realistic. His more conservative approach compared to last year should result in a return to the low turnover total we’re accustomed to seeing from him.