Having pieces of the Green Bay Packers offense in your fantasy football lineup is typically a good thing. Aaron Rodgers leads a potent attack that always results in the running back having value. This backfield used to be straightforward, but with AJ Dillon’s ascendance, fantasy managers are left trying to figure out if he or Aaron Jones is the better option.
Update 12/19/21: Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are active for this game against the Ravens.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon both have fantasy value
The good news for fantasy managers is Jones and Dillon are both fantasy-viable. Over the past five weeks, Dillon has been an RB3 or better in every game, including three RB1 finishes (I’m counting his RB13 Week 11).
Jones has had a much lower floor than Dillon, but he’s been an RB2 or better in seven games this season. Fantasy managers should feel comfortable starting either one.
Jones still has more perceived fantasy value than Dillon
I’m only one person, but I think if you polled the average fantasy manager, they would prefer Jones to Dillon. After all, Jones was the clear lead back to start the season. Dillon didn’t play more than 42% of the snaps until Week 10.
Dillon put together a string of quality outings, but they came with Jones either out or having just returned from injury. Then, last week, with Jones fully rested following the bye, he went right back to his RB1 ways … right? Jones finished as the overall RB8 with 21.5 PPR fantasy points. He has to be the preferred option … right?
Dillon was already overtaking Jones before the latter got hurt
The way recent weeks have played out makes it very plausible to think Jones remains the lead back in this offense. That’s why we have to look beyond just fantasy production to see what’s really going on.
Jones got hurt in Week 10, which was the first game Dillon out-snapped him. Even before Jones went down, Dillon saw increased usage. He ended up with 23 opportunities in that game to Jones’ 14.
After Jones returned in Week 12 from a one-week absence, he played firmly behind Dillon. Although he was on the field for 49% of the snaps, Jones saw just 10 carries and 1 target. Meanwhile, Dillon carried the ball 20 times and was targeted 5 times. But Jones was coming off an injury, so they were just easing him back. After the bye week, with Jones fully healthy, he would definitely go back to the lead role … except he didn’t.
In Week 14, Dillon played 6 more snaps than Jones and out-carried him 15-5. Jones only had 8 opportunities. Fortunately for fantasy managers, he scored twice. Do not let the fantasy points fool you — Dillon is the 1A in this backfield.
Are Dillon and Jones startable in fantasy lineups this week?
Regardless of Jones’ status behind Dillon, he’s still startable. Jones still has that touchdown upside and remains the preferred passing-down option ahead of Dillon.
As for Dillon, he’s the primary runner and power back. Also of importance is his status as the closer. When the Packers are trying to shut the door on a fourth-quarter lead, Dillon is their man.
His fourth-quarter role is especially important this particular week as the Packers take on the Ravens, who will likely be without Lamar Jackson. Green Bay is a touchdown favorite in Baltimore.
If the game goes as the line suggests, the Packers will have a fourth-quarter lead to maintain. When they do, Dillon will be the one gobbling up yards.
The matchup against the Ravens is concerning
We’ve spent a lot of time discussing Dillon and Jones’ roles, but not much on their Week 15 opponent.
The Ravens allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They allow just 85 rushing yards per game. Additionally, the Ravens defend receiving backs well. They allow only a 17% target share to running backs.
Should fantasy managers start Dillon or Jones this week?
I roster Jones in multiple leagues. In those leagues, Jones is nowhere near the worst running back or flex play on my team. I have to start him.
In two leagues, I have both Jones and Dillon and I feel comfortable starting both. It’s difficult out there right now at all positions, especially running back. Even though they cap each other’s upside, starting both enables me to not worry about which one might find the end zone.
I imagine many of you may be out there in leagues with shallower starting lineups, but you also roster both Packer running backs. You have to choose one. If I could not start both Jones and Dillon and had to pick one, it would be Dillon.
Jones seeing just 8 opportunities last week is very concerning, as he was fully healthy. Entering Week 15, he is not fully healthy. Jones aggravated his knee injury late in the fourth quarter last week and was limited at practice all week (he missed practice Thursday, but that was due to an illness).
Expect the Packers to continue limiting Jones’ workload and, if they get out to a lead, to lean on Dillon. I view Dillon as a floor-based mid-RB2 and Jones as more of a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent, high-end RB3.