After being released by the Green Bay Packers on Monday, Aaron Jones will reportedly remain in the NFC North with the Minnesota Vikings. Jones will replace Alexander Mattison, who was cut by the Vikings recently, as the lead back. What does this news mean for Jones’ fantasy football value, and how does it impact the values of Ty Chandler and Cam Akers?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Aaron Jones Signing in Minnesota?
This landing spot does make a lot of sense for Jones in terms of opportunities, but his fantasy value is a little more difficult to discern. While Ty Chandler was impressive down the stretch, the third-year back was always unlikely to be leaned on in a feature role in 2024. With Cam Akers dealing with an Achilles injury, he also wasn’t someone the Vikings would have wanted to lean on heavily this year.
In terms of touches, Jones has a great chance to finish in the 250+ range this year. Chandler will almost certainly get some opportunities, but he has just 108 career rushing attempts, so he is unlikely to be in a 50-50 time split with Jones.
Additionally, the Vikings look set to be rolling with either Sam Darnold or a rookie at quarterback this year, so they aren’t likely to be throwing the ball heavily in 2024.
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Where the problem arises for Jones is that the QB situation being in flux could make things tough for the veteran. The Vikings’ running game was hardly convincing last year, with 4.0 yards per attempt (24th in the league) and just seven rushing touchdowns (30th in the league) on the season. Some of that was due to the inefficiency of Akers and Mattison, but it wasn’t helped by the offense in general.
Among qualified backs, Mattison was 29th in terms of yards before contact per attempt (YBC/A) with 2.2. That was a product of both trouble on the offensive line and a lack of respect for the QB position over the second half of the season. Teams were able to stack the box and stifle Mattison’s ability to make plays. Chandler had more success at 2.7 YBC/A, while Akers sat at 2.0.
None of the three backs were particularly good at making players miss or making yards after contact, which are two skills at which Jones was better last year. He averaged 0.5 more yards after contact per attempt than any of the Vikings’ RBs and broke a tackle once every 12.9 attempts, compared to over 30 for Mattison and Chandler.
The problem was that even when Jones was active last year, he only averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game, which made him the RB29 among qualified starters. He also struggled with injuries, which cost him six games and hampered him in some others.
Jones found the end zone three times in the Wild Card Weekend game in Dallas, but those three scores accounted for more rushing touchdowns than he had all regular season (two). On the positive side, Jones finished with five straight 100-yard rushing games, which was a promising sign he was back to full health.
Jones’ name, the chance to be a starter, and his strong finish to last year will likely mean he ends up being drafted as a top-20 RB in 2024. That makes me wary of a player who has missed 10 games over the last four years and struggled in spells last season.
If his ADP sits in the RB25-30 region, he’s someone I will be targeting, but anything higher and Jones will not end up on many of my rosters in 2024.
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Meanwhile, Jones’ arrival puts a huge dent in any potential value for Chandler or Akers. Chandler was in line to have a fairly significant role alongside Mattison but will likely be pushed into a smaller role by Jones. Akers’ value was always going to be more of a waiver wire add when fully healthy, but barring an injury to Jones, that will not be the case early in 2024.
