As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Aaron Jones’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Aaron Jones’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
How often has a team selected two successful running backs in the same draft? Probably not that often. And back in 2017, the Green Bay Packers made a calculated decision to draft three running backs for the first time since 1974: Jamaal Williams in the fourth, Jones in the fifth, and Devante Mays in the seventh.
The year before, Green Bay’s RB corps consisted of Eddie Lacy, James Starks, and WR-turned-RB Ty Montgomery. Then in the offseason, the team let Lacy and Starks go, necessitating a rapid backfield rebuild.
Jones started only 12 games in his first two seasons, frequently ceding lead work to Williams despite averaging nearly two more yards per carry. In fact, Jones led the NFL with 5.5 ypc in 2018 and seemingly convinced his coaches to turn him loose in Year 3. The rest is history … or at least, a history that’s still being written.
Jones isn’t a typical starting RB, which means he’s not a typical fantasy RB. In his four campaigns as the weekly starter (2019-2022), he’s been fantasy’s RB2, RB5, RB11, and RB10 — despite never exceeding 236 carries in a season. In fact, he’s never surpassed 285 total touches.
Credit the Packers for not overworking him, which assuredly has prolonged the 28-year-old’s career. He’s remained consistently “great” over the years in yards after contact, broken-tackle rate, and yards per carry. And he’s continually excelled in the passing game.
Yet, Green Bay has remained committed to managing Jones’ reps, which helps explain why his best regular-season rushing output has occurred in January (6.2 ypc), and his second-best average has been in December (5.5 ypc).
The wild card for Jones entering 2023 isn’t so much backfield complement AJ Dillon (although Dillon certainly will have an impact), but a shift at quarterback. Going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love will be dramatic any way you slice it. Even if Love plays better than expected (entirely possible), the team might put more on Jones than ever before.
It’s a reasonable expectation. This franchise has invested heavily in Love (draft capital) and Jones (contract). Love has one of the best running backs in the league at his disposal. It’s not farfetched to envision career-highs for Jones in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and for him to receive more work near the goal line.
As a result, although defenses might stack the box more often, trying to force Love to beat them through the air (in ways they never dared do with Rodgers at the helm), Jones should finally get the kind of volume reserved for true bell cows.
Should You Draft Aaron Jones This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Jones with an ADP of RB16. FantasyPros’ composite of industry experts places him in the RB17 spot. These projections assume a severe offensive downturn for the Packers, corresponding with a significant drop in productivity for Jones.
But this looks more like a realistic worst-case scenario than a realistic mid-case scenario. By “mid-case,” I’m referring to the median of Jones’ realistic range of outcomes. He could be a top-eight RB if Love is a top-20 QB. That’s entirely possible. He could also be a frequently struggling 1A back, garnering 225+ touches en route to an RB20 finish.
So if RB6 (for example) and RB20 represent his realistic range of outcomes, then Jones’ ADP and ECR currently hover at or near his worst-case scenario.
That’s a clear-as-day sign of a buying opportunity. Jones deserves no worse than top-14 consideration as a centerpiece in a potentially underrated offense.