When RB AJ Dillon was drafted in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Jones’ fantasy football rankings tanked, as it was feared that the writing was on the wall.
Yet, instead of declining, the 29-year-old back has continued to average over 4.5 yards per carry (something he has done every season of his career) and cleared 100 rushing yards in both of his playoff games to close 2023.
Should competitive dynasty managers leverage his hot finish to the season, or was that production the sign of someone capable of breaking the age curve at the position as he begins his tenure with the Minnesota Vikings?
Aaron Jones’ Dynasty Outlook
When applying the age curve, you’d expect to see a decline as the season wears on, especially after a September injury. That wasn’t even close to the case for Jones in 2023. If you extend his final six games (including the playoffs) over an entire 17-game season:
- 368 touches
- 43 catches
- 2,046 total yards
No one would ever project anything close to that, but the fact that he can still pace for numbers like that for an extended period is noteworthy.
After a dominant Wild Card Round performance, Aaron Jones’ dynasty stock is pointing up.
Are you buying/holding/selling going into 2024? pic.twitter.com/A8dcpVpQr6
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 18, 2024
He is staying in the NFC North for 2024, but with a different color uniform comes a different situation. At the moment, his role is even more stable in Minnesota (Ty Chandler being the secondary back after Alexander Mattison was waived) than it was in Green Bay, but is the scoring equity going to be there?
Kirk Cousins has taken his talents to Atlanta, leaving this offense with more questions than answers at the quarterback position. The Vikings signed Sam Darnold following the Cousins deal, and without an early pick, he is the likely Week 1 starter.
Jones’ fantasy stock has tanked in recent years due to his inability to score, and even if you like him to regress to his career norms in conversion rate, the sheer number of opportunities figures to decline in a significant way.
Jones’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Jones land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the NFL Draft? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Jones lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Alvin Kamara | NO
14) Javonte Williams | DEN
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Josh Jacobs | GB
17) Rachaad White | TB
18) Derrick Henry | BAL
19) Tony Pollard | TEN
20) Zamir White | LV
21) D’Andre Swift | CHI
22) Nick Chubb | CLE
23) Aaron Jones | MIN
24) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
25) Najee Harris | PIT
Should You Trade Jones in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Jones in dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer makes it easy to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
As is the case with many running backs, your treatment of Jones hinges on your ability to evaluate the state of your current roster. This skill is honed over time, and it’s critical to your ability to succeed at a high level.
Player evaluation is great, but without the ability to look objectively at your team, you’re going nowhere. A team that is still building and projecting to peak in 2025 or later has no business investing in a running back with a profile like Jones’ (29 years old with over 1,500 touches).
Over the past decade:
- Of RBs who touched the ball 200 times in a season, 10.5% were in their age-29 season or beyond.
- Of RBs to score 225 half-PPR fantasy points, 7.4% were in their age-29 season or beyond.
- Half-PPR points per touch in age-29 seasons or later dip by 5.1%.
- YPC before contact in age-29 seasons or later dip by 6.7%.
- YPC after contact in age-29 seasons or later dip by 5.1%.
That said, if 2024 (and maybe 2025) is within your title window, then Jones is an asset to you with his value on the downswing after the trade to Minnesota. This is how trades get done –- Jones’ value relies on the trajectory of your team as much as anything, so if you can cash in this chip during a rebuild, you do it.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
This is a similar case for numerous running backs in this age range (think Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner or Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry).
You’re participating in a dynasty league because you want to simulate being a general manager of a real team –- this is your chance to flex those muscles and make a move!
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