As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Aaron Jones.
Aaron Jones’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
If you asked me two years ago when Jones signed his four-year extension with the Packers if I thought he’d be on the team in 2023, I would’ve said no. In fact, I did say no.
But the Packers restructured Jones’ contract to reduce his 2023 salary cap hit and keep him on the team.
Also contributing to this decision was the lack of progression from AJ Dillon. While Dillon has been more useful than not, his 2022 performance definitely raised some questions as to whether he can be a true lead back. As a result, all signs point to Jones playing out the final two years of his contract with the Packers.
Jones, like many running backs from the 2015-2018 range, is nearing the end of his career as a productive fantasy asset. He’s 28 years old and coming off his worst fantasy season since 2018.
In 2022, Jones averaged 14.6 ppg, finishing as the overall RB11. Don’t let the RB1 finish fool you, though. It was an incredibly poor year for running backs overall. Most seasons, anything short of 15 ppg is not getting a guy into RB1 territory.
The thing with Jones’ 2022 campaign is he didn’t really show any signs of decline. He is going to fall off a cliff eventually, but I’m quite confident it’s not going to happen in 2023.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Jones averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per touch this past year. His evaded tackles per touch rate was 29%, inside the top 15, and he averaged 3.28 yards created per touch, inside the top 10.
Jones’ primary issue for fantasy is something we all saw coming from a mile away after last season — touchdowns. He had just a single goal-line carry through all of 2022. That job belonged exclusively to Dillon by the latter portion of the 2021 season. Unsurprisingly, it carried over into 2022.
Dillon had his share of struggles last season, but punching in short touchdowns was not one of them. As a result, Jones scored just seven times, his lowest total since his rookie season.
A further part of the problem was that the Packers’ offense wasn’t the same juggernaut it’s been throughout the Aaron Rodgers era. Their 21.8 ppg as a team was the lowest mark during Rodgers’ tenure (excluding 2017, when he missed nearly 40% of the season). They scored 80 points fewer than they did in 2021 and 139 points fewer than in 2020.
The combination of Dillon becoming the primary goal-line back and the Packers’ offense taking a huge step back inherently lowers Jones’ upside. So, unless the offense rebounds under Jordan Love, which would involve an unexpected improvement in the pass-catching department, Jones is probably going to be the guy we saw last season, at best.
Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Ranking
Jones is a dynasty RB2. We currently have him ranked at RB21, No. 66 overall in our latest dynasty Superflex rankings. But how valuable is an RB2 with likely no more than two years left of being a fantasy starter?
Of course, it’s easy to say trade away the old players and trade for the young players. If you go shopping Jones, everyone will know exactly what you’re doing. But it’s probably a good idea to see if you can move him. He’s a win-now player who isn’t really going to move the needle for teams trying to win now. Unless he fell way below ADP, I wouldn’t target him in dynasty startup drafts.