After seven years with the Green Bay Packers, veteran RB Aaron Jones is now a member of the division-rival Minnesota Vikings. Will his role on his new team enable him to continue being a productive fantasy football asset? How should managers approach Jones in 2024 Best Ball drafts?
Aaron Jones’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
The 2024 fantasy season is shaping up to be one of the most challenging ones in terms of evaluating the running back position. Historically, older running backs who change teams are bad investments. Well, we have a bunch of them this year, not to mention the several other older running backs who are still with their teams.
The main reason old running backs who switch teams — specifically ones that were cut — are bad values is because, well, why are their teams cutting them? The answer is almost always because they’re not good anymore.
Jones is 29 years old. He will turn 30 before the season ends. He is one of the oldest projected starting running backs in the NFL.
Usually, it’s easy to dismiss guys like this. When Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook were released, it wasn’t hard to write them off. They had shown serious signs of decline the year before. Jones has not. In fact, Jones played some of the best football of his career late last season and during the playoffs.
#PFN365 Players of the Game:
🏈 RB Aaron Jones
🏈 S Darnell Savage#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/ZNbypDc8Wz— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 15, 2024
On the season, Jones averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game. It was the worst season of his career outside of his rookie year. His 4.6 yards per carry were a career low. His 11.9% target share was a major step down from his career average.
Jones had been an RB1 in each of the previous four seasons. But over that span, his touchdown total had decreased every year. Last season, it bottomed out at just three.
It’s very difficult to assess Jones’ overall profile because the metrics don’t reflect the actual ability of the player. Jones’ evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was 18%, 30th in the league, and just 3.5% of his runs went for 15+ yards, 38th in the league. Those are bad numbers.
At the same time, they can easily be explained away. Jones strained his hamstring in Week 1. He tried to return way too soon in Week 4, aggravated it, and was out until Week 7. Then, he was eased back into action out of fear he would aggravate it again. Jones then sprained his knee in Week 1 and missed another three games.
Ironically, the sprained knee probably helped Jones because he was no longer playing through his hamstring injury. When he came back in Week 15, he looked fully healthy for the first time since Week 1.
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Over the final five games of the season, including his two playoff games, Jones averaged 130.6 total yards per game. He scored no fewer than 14.0 fantasy points in those five contests despite not scoring a single touchdown in four of them. He looked like vintage Aaron Jones.
It’s always a challenge to go against historical trends. However, it’s just not possible to conclude the Packers released Jones because he’s no longer good at football. We know Jones didn’t want to take a pay cut, and we should fully buy that as the reason he is no longer on the team. Therefore, we can identify Jones as a potential exception.
Should You Draft Jones in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Just because Jones may not be done doesn’t mean we should automatically draft him, though. At his age, once lingering soft tissue issues pop up, they tend not to go away. We can and should be worried that Jones may miss extended time if he tweaks something once again.
The good news is Jones should have a pretty similar role to the one he had in Green Bay. Ty Chandler is both a more formidable threat to touches than AJ Dillon was and also less of a concern. Allow me to explain.
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Chandler is playing better at this stage of his career than Dillon. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season and 5.0 yards per touch. He showcased lead-back ability in a way Dillon rarely has. However, the Packers used Dillon more than I would anticipate the Vikings using Chandler, which is good news for Jones.
Plus, Jones is actually bigger than Chandler, making it more likely he gets goal-line carries, something he rarely handled alongside Dillon.
That’s the good news. Now for the not-so-good, the Vikings just lost Kirk Cousins. Their quarterback is either going to be Sam Darnold or a rookie. This offense is not going to be nearly as prolific as it has been. That inherently lowers Jones’ upside.
Where it could benefit Jones, though, is more opportunities in the passing game. Touchdowns are everything in fantasy football, but Jones is not exactly being drafted as a top running back. He can produce enough to justify his cost in Best Ball drafts with receiving work alone.
Overall, Jones is an extremely volatile pick in 2024 fantasy drafts. He still has the talent to be a top-12 running back, but his health and team situation may not allow for it. If those two things end up going better than expected, he could be a value. If they go worse than expected, he could be a wasted pick.