The Philadelphia Eagles will face the Washington Commanders in the NFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR A.J. Brown.
Is A.J. Brown Playing vs. the Commanders?
Brown was listed on the injury report as having a knee injury and an illness. He was a limited participant on Wednesday (rest) but practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. He does not carry any injury designation heading into the game.
We’ll continue to monitor the Eagles’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit A.J. Brown in the NFC Conference Championship Game?
I’m not sure if “buying low” is really a thing at this point in the year, but if it is, A.J. Brown’s name sits atop that list. I think that helps us out here.
All of the high-priced options this week go under the microscope in a major way. We only have two games/four teams to look at and that is when everyone’s purse strings tighten — we have to be so precise on a pay-up option that we, as humans, are worried about messing it up.
So when you click on Brown’s name and his postseason “production” pops up, it’s hard to not take notice.
- Wild Card Round vs. Packers: one catch, three targets, and 10 yards
- Divisional Round vs. Rams: two catches, seven targets, and 14 yards
That’s an eyesore. Brown’s name has been a popular one in the news cycle because of his focus on “Inner Excellence,” but we pay for outer excellence and simply haven’t gotten it.
He deserves to be the top-priced receiver on this slate and I have him ranked as WR1, but I don’t think he’ll be an overly popular DFS option. The priciest player at any position is tough to get to in the first place, but when you consider that the uber-consistent Terry McLaurin sits just behind him on the WR board and that his teammate is coming off of a slate-breaking performance (oh, and a historic season), there’s a path to Brown being less popular.
If that’s the case, it’s time to pounce.
He did manage to earn an end-zone target last week, though three straight games without a red-zone look is a problem. Is Brown still the alpha in this receiver room? That’s the question you need to wrestle with.
For me, the answer is “yes” and I’m not overly hesitant in saying as much. Physically imposing WR1’s have been an issue for Washington at times this season, too.
Top WR PPR fantasy performances vs. Washington, 2024:
- Ja’Marr Chase, Week 3: 29.8 PPR points (133.4% over expectation)
- Malik Nabers, Week 2: 28.7 PPR points (18 targets)
- A.J. Brown, Week 16: 23.7 PPR points (15 targets)
- Mike Evans, Week 1: 23.1 PPR points (86.9% over expectation)
The Commanders’ defense has looked better of late, but given that they allow the 10th-most yards per play-action pass attempt, I’m comfortable in paying up for Brown’s services with the thought that the Eagles can unlock their biggest mismatch.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Points Projection in the NFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Brown is projected to score 21 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 6.6 receptions for 104.8 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes in the regular season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
While Washington forced five turnovers in their Divisional Round upset over the Lions, they still only generated a 70.7 (C-) grade. The Commanders actually allowed a season-worst 7.7 yards per play, as the Lions moved the ball at will when they weren't throwing it away.
Still, Dan Quinn's unit deserves credit for causing some of those errors from Detroit's offense. Washington generated its fourth-highest non-blitz pressure rate of the season (43.2%), well above its regular-season rate of 33.6%. Three of Jared Goff's four turnovers came when pressured, illustrating the impact the pass rush had on the outcome.
The Commanders will face another difficult test in the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles' ground game, though Philadelphia's passing game struggles could make that a more palatable matchup. If this unit can continue to generate a couple splash plays, Daniels and the offense could do the rest.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings
1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
Commanders at Eagles Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders won 23.5% of their games last season – the fourth-worst win percentage for a team that took part in a Conference Championship the following season.
QB: Jayden Daniels became the first player in NFL history with 15 rushes and 20 completions in a postseason game where he averaged 9.5 yards per pass.
QB: Daniels became the first player in NFL history with two touchdowns and 12 rush attempts without an interception in consecutive games.
Offense: Including the playoffs, there have been 15 instances in which a team starting a rookie QB score 34 points this season – the Commanders have accounted for seven of them.
Defense: How impactful has the offense been in Washington? They’ve now allowed over 2.5 points per drive nine times this season – they’ve won seven of those contests. It should be noted that their six worst point-per-drive defensive showings have all come on the road.
Fantasy: Brian Robinson ran for 77 yards and two scores on 15 carries against the Lions on Saturday night. In his previous four games, he ran for 110 yards and zero scores on 38 carries.
Betting: Do you think we'll see points in this game? Washington has covered each of the past four games that have gone over the total.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since (at Washington, Week 16). In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (Divisional Round at Chiefs).
QB: Jalen Hurts is averaging 6.3 yards per pass in the postseason, down from 8.0 during the regular season.
Offense: Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards in touchdowns against the Rams this season (282) than any other player has for the season as a whole.
Defense: The Eagles have forced a turnover in 11 of their past 13 games (this coming on a streak of three turnover-less games in Weeks 6-8), including multiple in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: Hurts’ 44-yard TD on Sunday was the fourth longest by a QB inthe postseason, and he has now run for 29+ yards in 11 straight games (T-9th longest streak by a QB, the second longest streak of his career)
Betting: Since Week 10, overs are 2-0 when the Eagles play the Rams and 2-7 when Philadelphia plays any other team.
