Even though the Vikings’ playoffs hopes are minuscule, there’s still a game to play and potential money to make. Let’s dive in and see if there are any worthwhile bets (spread or otherwise) to make for the Vikings and Saints Christmas Day NFL game!
Christmas Day NFL game: Spread picks for Vikings at Saints
Yards per play (YPP) metrics
In my breakdown of the New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams, I detailed why using yards per play data is imperative for handicapping games. The Vikings have a YPP differential of +0.3 (1.5 spread value) while the Saints sit at +0.7 (3.5 spread value). Based solely on YPP, New Orleans should be a (-2) point favorite on a neutral field.
Season-long metrics give you the largest sample, but comparing more recent examples is another way to measure how teams are currently performing.
Minnesota’s last four games
In the Vikings’ last four games, they have a (-4) spread value (5.2 OFF YPP vs. 6.0 DEF YPP).
While the offense struggled to move the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they have also been without All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendricks the past three weeks. In that time, Jacksonville (+0.4), Tampa Bay (+0.5), and Chicago (+1.1) have all averaged YPP figures above their season-long metrics.
Kendricks has not practiced this week as of this writing. As a result, we could see Brees return to form after a horrid return to action in Week 15.
The Saints defense
The Saints have looked impressive, with QB Taysom Hill taking over for the injured Brees the last four weeks. They have a (+3) spread value in that stretch (5.4 OFF YPP vs. 4.8 DEF YPP). However, those numbers are inflated by facing a WR-turned-QB against the Denver Broncos.
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If you remove the Denver game, the Saints are surrendering 5.4 YPP on defense, which would bring their spread value to an average league figure of (+1). That said, their defense has been phenomenal all season. Only two opponents exceeded their season-long average YPP figure against the Saints. Every other team they have faced has averaged fewer YPP against the Saints than their current season-long number.
Saints with and without Brees
From a YPP perspective, the offense didn’t have a drastic drop with Brees missing time. With Brees, the Saints average 5.7 YPP; with Hill, it dips to 5.5. Hill is not the passer Brees is, but the Saints didn’t miss him that much in this stretch. If you exclude the games where Hill started and weigh recent performance more, the Vikings and Saints spread for this Christmas Day NFL game gets closer to the (-7) we see at most sportsbooks.
Vikings at Saints matchups
The Saints offense
Losing Kendricks is brutal for the Vikings. The defense doesn’t generate pressure as is (27th in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate), and now they’ll have an even harder time matching up with Alvin Kamara. Brees will have plenty of time to eat this defense up in the intermediate range, as he has done to opponents for most of the year.
According to Sharp Football Stats, the Saints have a roughly even split of pass/rush plays on early downs in neutral game scripts (53/47). On pass plays, they average a 55% success rate (top-five in the league) while averaging a 51% success rate on rushing plays (top-10).
Minnesota ranks dead-last in early-down rushing success rate against (56%) and 28th in early-down passing success rate against (56%). In the last three weeks without Kendricks, those percentages rose to 57% and 63%, respectively. The Saints should have no trouble moving the ball, which bodes well to cover the spread against the Vikings.
The Vikings Offense
Minnesota runs at the highest rate in the league (58%) on early downs in neutral game scripts. However, they have a 47% success rate, one of the lowest marks in the league. They have a much better success rate when throwing the ball (56%) in this same scenario.
However, this matchup might pay dividends for Minnesota’s offensive approach, as New Orleans resides in the bottom third of the league in rushing success rate (54%) against on early downs. They’re the fifth-best passing defense on early downs, so it would behoove Minnesota to continue their run-heavy approach.
The matchup in the trenches also favors this approach. Minnesota ranks first in adjusted line yards while ranking 27th in adjusted sack rate. In other words, they’re much better at run blocking than pass blocking. The Saints defensive line is elite in both aspects (third and first, respectively). I’m usually an advocate for passing the ball on early downs more often than you run, but you also need to consider your opponent.
Vikings at Saints spread bets
The Saints are universally seven-point favorites over the Vikings, with some “juiced” seven and halves available at some sportsbooks. This is a toss-up to me. I can see a path where Minnesota can have success rushing the ball; Cousins can move the offense down the field and score with the Saints. Brees wasn’t sharp in his return to action in Week 15, which could very well continue on Christmas Day.
However, the Vikings’ playoff hopes are slim. How focused will they be playing for virtually nothing on Christmas Day away from their families? Contrary to that point, however, they’ve known all season they would be on the road for Christmas.
Push aside the narratives
That said, I don’t focus on narratives when I bet. Any subjective argument you can conjure up can make up a counter-argument with the same logic. What doesn’t make sense to me is this current number in comparison to where the Buccaneers closed against the Vikings.
Tampa Bay closed anywhere between six and seven against the Vikings at home. The Saints are better than Tampa Bay, yet are favored by the same amount against the same team? It doesn’t quite add up to me.
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All that said, I can’t recommend a pre-game spread bet on this game. There is too much unknown here to have conviction either way. If you HAD to make a bet, I would take the Saints at (-7) or less. If the Vikings get to a reasonable (+7.5) (-115 or cheaper), I would bet their spread against the Saints instead.
I did tease the Saints down to (-1) with the Los Angeles Rams (+8.5) in a traditional two-team six-point teaser for full disclosure. That’d be the optimal way to approach this game “pre-flop,” in my opinion.
Christmas Day NFL game player props
Here are some quick notes on player props I’m eyeing for this game
- Emmanuel Sanders has a 20% target share in games played with Brees and without Michael Thomas. If you can get his receiving yards somewhere in the mid to high 50’s, I think it’s worth taking the over.
- I saw Kamara’s receiving yards prop set at 44.5 at one sportsbook. His pass game role plummeted with Hill at QB. In his most recent game, Brees’ inefficiency hurt his bottom line. However, if he is the Kamara from earlier in the season, he’ll sail over this number. I’m betting this over myself.
- You won’t find value in betting first TD props for big favorites. The longer odds always belong to the underdog. That said, I don’t hate Irv Smith Jr.’s first TD prop at 22/1.
- Justin Jefferson has 25 more targets than Adam Thielen since Week 8. He has 69 total targets for a 28% target share. Their yards and receptions props are priced close to each other. Over five or five and a half receptions, at a reasonable price, for Jefferson is worth a look.
- Contrary to Jefferson, I don’t hate Thielen under four or four and a half receptions either.
Those are all of the angles I’m looking at when it comes to the Christmas Day NFL spreads. Good luck with your Vikings at Saints spread bets and player props! And of course, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!