Rashard Higgins has flirted with brief blips on the fantasy football radar in years past, only to slip back into obscurity just as quickly as he burst onto the scene. After two weeks in a row in the top 15, is Rashard Higgins a playoff hero in Week 15? Or is he about to catfish fantasy managers?
Does Rashard Higgins hold any fantasy value in Week 15?
The season, NFL and fantasy, got off to a slow start for Rashard Higgins. It wasn’t until Week 5 that Higgins got on to the field for even half of the offensive snaps. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that his snap counts didn’t rise into the 70-80% range until after the injury to Odell Beckham Jr.
Recently, it’s been an entirely different story. Over the past three weeks, Higgins has averaged just over 70% of the offensive snaps and has seen 21 targets. He had totaled just 23 total targets the rest of the season combined.
What he has done with those targets is what is really impressive. His total Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a mere 74.6, which ranks 55th among his position group. Yet his actual total fantasy points on the season, in PPR scoring, is 101.8. That gives him a positive 36% Fantasy Point Differential, which ranks 12th among all receivers.
Rashard Higgins is also posting an impressive 10.64 yards per target, second-highest on the team. Only big-play threat Donovan Peoples-Jones, who leads all receivers in the NFL, has a higher YPT in the Cleveland Browns receiver room.
Going into Week 15, Rashard Higgins has 31 receptions on 41 targets for 468 yards and four touchdowns.
“He’s Heating Up!”
Rashard Higgins has scored 39.6% of his total fantasy points in the last two weeks alone. In true NBA Jam fashion, “He’s Heating Up!”. Over these past two weeks, Higgins has 12-162-2 on 19 targets and looks like Baker Mayfield’s favorite target. Those two weeks, also happen to be Mayfield’s only 300+ passing yards games on the season.
Higgins two week stat line translates to 40.3 fantasy points. That is strong enough for ninth-best among all receivers over that same time span. To put it into comparison, Tyreek Hill has 40.9 fantasy points over those same two weeks. It’s a small sample size, clearly. However, it’s equally clear that Higgins has turned into a real part of this offense, just as the team has been starting to get in the groove.
While Higgins’ 72nd ranked Consistency Score (CS) of 2.3 leaves something to be desired, it’s important to remember that score includes those first few weeks where he didn’t see the field for more than 25% of the snaps. If we adjust for just games where he played +50% of snaps, it raises to 3.0 (46th). In addition, his fantasy points per game rises over a point and a half from 7.85 to 9.43.
What is truly promising (not the fizzy beverage of sadness), is in games where Higgins sees four or more targets, he averages 12.52 points per game. As I’ve noted above, he appears to be gaining more and more of Mayfield’s trust, and his target count has been on the rise in recent weeks. With the recent news coming from New York (more on that in a second), Higgins shouldn’t have any problem getting plenty of targets this Sunday.
“He’s (about to be) on Fire!”
In Week 15, Rashard Higgins and the Cleveland Browns head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants. For fantasy purposes, this doesn’t look great. The Giants boast an average points allowed to receivers of only 35.32 which ranks 20th.
Their D-PAC ranks ninth, however, thanks to their relatively high ceiling and their propensity to give up higher than the league average. In six of their 13 games this season, they have surrendered more than the league average to receivers.
The Giants will also be without their best cornerback, James Bradberry. Bradberry is being placed on the reserve list and will miss Sunday’s game. Considering how shallow this team is at the position, that’s colossal news for Higgins who figured to see a lot of coverage from Bradberry. Instead, Higgins will possibly see a mixture of Darnay Holmes and Isaac Yiadom.
Sunday could go “too well” for the Browns
The key free-agent James Bradberry isn’t the only player the Giants are going to be missing on Sunday. Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett is also on the reserve list and will miss Sunday as well. That leaves Freddie Kitchens calling the plays against his former team. We still don’t know though if Kitchens will be calling those plays for Daniel Jones. Jones is listed as questionable with ankle and hamstring injuries. If Jones can’t go Sunday, that means Colt McCoy, yet another Browns’ flameout, will be under center.
This all could add up to a huge Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt day if the Giants are just too dysfunctional to put up any resistance to the feisty Cleveland Browns. A few quick scores followed by a futile attempt from the McCoy led Giants in an attempt to catch up, could translate to Baker Mayfield handing it off 60 times the rest of the day. With so many missing pieces on a team that was already falling short of expectations when mostly everyone (minus Saquon Barkley of course) was healthy, this outcome shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Then again it could turn into the ultimate “revenge” matchup as Kitchens and McCoy try to lay a heavy dose of repentance on the Browns and screw up their playoff hopes. Another high-octane offensive struggle, crushing the over on their 44 point over/under line.
To start or not to start Rashard Higgins? That is the question
As much as I would love another back and forth slugfest as we saw against the Baltimore Ravens last week, I rather doubt the latter is a reality we get to enjoy. Even if the Browns get out to a big lead early, Higgins stands to factor into that early lead without Bradberry there to get in his way. His stat-line might plateau after halftime, but there is little reason to believe he won’t be a main weapon for Mayfield early on.
With the Giants’ glaring flaws, it should be expected for the Browns to handle business easily this week. That being said, Higgins’ ceiling is clearly capped. As Chubb and Hunt grind the clock out, that’s less late-game action for receivers. That doesn’t mean Higgins floor isn’t worth the start for fantasy managers. Mayfield will have to throw the ball throughout this game. Without Bradberry lining up opposite of Higgins, that is going to translate into targets.
Rashard Higgins will be in my fantasy playoff lineups in Week 15. But I won’t be expecting him to win me the week all on his own either.
Want more fantasy football analysis and news?
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.