With superstar Julio Jones ruled out of the Atlanta Falcons’ Week 14 showdown with the Minnesota Vikings, what can we expect from Calvin Ridley in fantasy football this weekend? Is Ridley in line for a massive volume increase? Or is he negatively impacted with Jones off the field? Let’s take a look.
How does Julio Jones’ absence impact Calvin Ridley’s fantasy outlook in Week 14?
Both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley have shown WR1 ceilings this season
Despite battling a hamstring injury that has now held him out of four games this season, Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones is still a top-five wide receiver in the NFL. That might not be evident in his current fantasy football standing (WR33 in PPR fantasy leagues). However, those numbers are skewed down by the missed games and double-coverages sent his way. When looking at fantasy points per game, Jones comes in at WR13 with an average of 16.2 PPR points.
The attention sent Jones’ way opens things up for other wide receivers around him, and Calvin Ridley has taken full advantage of it this season. Ridley is the current WR6 in PPR fantasy football leagues. The former Alabama Crimson Tide standout is on pace for the first 1,000-yard season of his young career. Despite missing a couple of games himself, Ridley has a career-high 905 receiving yards and seven touchdown receptions. Not bad for a team’s number two wide receiver.
Life without Julio Jones
With Julio Jones ruled out for Week 14, the Falcons move Calvin Ridley to WR1 and just spread the leftover targets around to Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, and Todd Gurley, right? Not so fast, my friend. Using RotoViz Game Splits, DFS expert Al Zeidenfeld noted that the Falcons offense usually hits rock-bottom without Jones on the field.
Quarterback Matt Ryan is averaging 22.71 points per game this season with Jones on the field. That number drops, however, to 12.92 without the Falcons’ top wide receiver. That’s a pretty significant dip in production for a quarterback that is seen as a low-end QB1. Even against an average Vikings defense, I’d be cautious about starting Ryan this weekend.
You would think that Julio Jones missing time would open things up for the Falcons number three WR Russell Gage. However, the game splits show us the complete opposite. After scoring 10.93 PPR points per game in nine games with Jones, Gage’s points per game dipped to 4.87 in three contests without him. It’s hard to trust Gage as anything other than a desperation WR4/5 dart throw in Week 14. Unless you’re playing in a super-deep 16-team league, you can find better streaming options on your waiver wire.
Calvin Ridley’s Week 14 fantasy football projection
We know that Jones’ absence hurts the quarterback and secondary passing game options. What does it mean for Calvin Ridley’s fantasy stock in Week 14 against the Minnesota Vikings? Luckily for us, Ridley doesn’t lose value with Jones off the field. His production even increases in the majority of categories.
In eight games this season with Julio Jones on the field, Ridley has averaged 17.45 PPR points, five receptions, .75 reception touchdowns, and eight targets per game. Meanwhile, in three games without Jones, Ridley’s numbers rise across the board. As the team’s number one wide receiver, Ridley’s numbers jump up to 18.43 PPR points, 6.33 receptions, .33 reception touchdowns, and 10.67 targets per game. Ridley does take a bit of a dip in reception touchdowns, but those numbers can be supplemented by the extra receptions and yards the wide receiver gains.
So while the Atlanta Falcons offense takes a massive step back without Julio Jones on the field, you can feel safe locking Calvin Ridley into your starting fantasy football lineups for Week 14. He may have a difficult time reaching the end zone without Jones there drawing double-coverage, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons aren’t afraid to pepper Ridley with the vast majority of passing game targets.
More fantasy football coverage at Pro Football Network
Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.
Jordan Woodson is a fantasy football analyst for Pro Football Network. Follow him on Twitter @Jordan_Woodson.