NFL DFS Picks, Week 12: Quarterback Positional Values
Patrick Mahomes: $8,000
There are plenty of reasons to roster Mahomes this weekend. The Kansas City Chiefs have the highest implied team total (29.75) on the slate and they pass at the second-highest rate in neutral game scripts (62/38). Additionally, the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the highest total on the board. If you’re paying up at QB in cash games, Mahomes is my choice.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: $5,500
With rookie QB Tua Tagovaiola set to miss this game, Fitzpatrick becomes my DFS pick if paying down at QB this week. The Dolphins throw at one of the highest rates in the league, have a respectable 25.5 point implied team total, and face a New York Jets defense, which ranks as the sixth easiest matchup according to Phillip Caldwell’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (DPAC).
NFL DFS Picks, Week 12: Running Back Positional Values
Dalvin Cook: $9,500
Cook is by far the highest projected RB on the Week 12 DFS slate. He’s at home in a dome – the Vikings have a robust 27.25 implied team total, and Cook leads the slate in opportunity share (targets + carries) at 25.7 according to FTN Daily. With the plethora of injuries we had late in the week, Cook should be prioritized your cash games.
James Robinson: $6,300
Robinson has been underappreciated all season. He ranks fourth in FTN Daily’s opportunity share percentage (37.1) and is the RB5 in points per reception scoring. While his implied team total (21.25) is one of the lowest on the slate, Robinson rates as a fantastic value based on volume alone in a mediocre matchup (16th in DPAC vs. RBs) vs. the Cleveland Browns.
Brian Hill: $4,000
With Todd Gurley being ruled out with a knee injury, Hill figures to take on most of the work in the Atlanta backfield. He has played the second most RB snaps for the Falcons and even led them in snap share in Week 11.
Don’t overthink this one: Hill is playing in a dome, has a 25 point implied team total, and gets a Raiders defense, which ranks as the 7th easiest matchup for RBs, according to DPAC. Among the cheap RB picks, Hill is my favorite for the Week 12 NFL DFS slate.
Wide Receiver Positional Values
Stefon Diggs: $7,600
In two of the three games John Brown has missed, Diggs has amassed double-digit targets (11 and 16). While most may opt for the cheaper options on the Buffalo Bills (Cole Beasley at $5,500 and Gabriel Davis at $3,000), Diggs shouldn’t be forgotten about, as he is the best WR in Buffalo.
Justin Jefferson: $6,300
With Adam Thielen ruled out for this contest, it’ll be extremely difficult to ignore Jefferson on this slate. While I expect him to be immensely popular, he’s one of the safest bets for at least eight targets. My only worry is the Minnesota Vikings getting out to an early lead and killing the clock with Cook, but seeing as they’re only 3.5 point favorites, I don’t expect that to be the case.
Robert Woods: $5,800
Josh Reynolds ($4,300) had crept up on Woods in terms of target share on the Los Angeles Rams offense, but Woods proved the passing game still runs through himself and Cooper Kupp ($6,400). $5,800 is a criminal price for Woods. I expect Los Angeles to implement the same pass-heavy approach against the San Francisco 49ers robust run defense as they did against the Buccaneers.
Denzel Mims: $3,500
Mims ranks 11th in the league in target share (26.25%) and weighted opportunity (WOPR, a combination of a player’s target share and team air yards share) at 63.88. There is some risk with Sam Darnold ($5,100) returning to action that Mims doesn’t command the same target share he has been up to this point, but for just $3,500, you can afford to take that risk with one of your DFS picks this week.
Tight End Positional Values
Travis Kelce: $7,000 and Darren Waller: $6,000
These two are the premium NFL DFS picks at TE for Week 12. For cash games, I think I slightly prefer the $1000 discount with Waller. His team total is just two points below Kelce’s, while he leads all TEs on the year in both target share (28.2%) and WOPR (57.49%). If salary weren’t an issue, I’d choose Kelce. I will try to find the $1,000 to get to Kelce, but Waller is a good value if I can’t.
Kyle Rudolph: $2,800
With no Irv Smith or Thielen, Rudolph projects to dominate the TE snaps and targets for Minnesota. If you want to punt at TE, Rudolph is the play.
Defense Positional Values
Saints: $3,800
The Saints are pricey, but Denver can’t even field an NFL QB this weekend. Pass attempts will be astronomically low for Denver, but this is the first time I think a defense can “get there” on point prevention alone.
Browns: $3,100
Random note: I wanted to roster the Browns last weekend (for some reason, I can’t remember) but didn’t because Myles Garrett wasn’t going to play. Silly me. Mistake prone/bad QB’s will still be bad, regardless of who’s on the other side. Mike Glennon isn’t great, so feel free to roll with the Browns this weekend.
Chargers: $2,400
The Bills pass at one of the highest rates in the league, and Josh Allen ($7,600) is always prone to turn into a pumpkin.
Jets: $2,100
The Jets are your punt option this weekend, facing off against the pass-heavy Dolphins and mistake-prone Fitzpatrick.
NFL DFS Picks, Week 12: Game Stacks
Kansas City (-3.5) at Tampa Bay / Total 57
While Mahomes, Kelce, and Tyreek Hill ($7,800) project to be popular choices, Chris Godwin ($6,000) is the only other player in this game projected to be over 10% owned. It’s understandable, as no one on Tampa Bay has separated themself since Antonio Brown ($5,700) joined the team. Brown leads the team in air yards during his time there, Mike Evans ($6,100) has the most touchdown equity, and Godwin probably has the highest floor.
In smaller field tournaments, I think you can get away with taking the chalky Mahomes and Hill/Kelce pairing (I wouldn’t do both as they are too expensive for both of them to pay off their salary) and running it back with one of these Tampa pass catchers, hoping you pick the right one. However, in larger sized tournaments, I like double stacking Tom Brady ($6,600) with two of his pass-catchers and mixing up your Kansas City run-backs. Brady correlates will with Mahomes, and the Tampa Bay stack leaves your lineup different enough to roster a popular Chief.
Alas, don’t leave Sammy Watkins ($4,700) out of your tournament player pool. He had at least seven targets in three of the five games he’s played this season, as well as playing at least 80% of the snaps in those contests. Watkins is one of the ancillary picks that can help you differentiate your Mahomes stacks in NFL DFS GPPs this week.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3) / Total 51.5
Derrick Henry ($7,900) projects to be the only player above 10% ownership from this game. It has a decent 51.5 total, will be played in a dome, and the low spread suggests a close match.
Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out for this game, leaving some clarity regarding the Indianapolis backfield. I would expect Nyheim Hines ($4,600) and Jordan Wilkins ($4,000) to split the RB carries, with Hines dominating the RB targets. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hines receive the bulk of the RB work as Wilkins has played just 20% and 10% of the RB snaps the past two weeks.
Related l Nyheim Hines or Jordan Wilkins: Who to start with Jonathan Taylor out?
As far as the Colts WRs are concerned, Michael Pittman ($5,000) remains the only attractive player on the roster. You can take a chance on T.Y. Hilton ($3,900) based on volume, but he’s been so inefficient that I’m not going there myself.
On the Tennessee side, I like attacking the passing game with A.J. Brown ($6,700) and Corey Davis ($4,900) as leverage off of Henry. Brown has seen a 26% target share the last three weeks, while Davis has seen a respectable 19% himself. Jonnu Smith ($4,100) is in play, but Waller and Kelce are in such good spots that I’d rather roster either one in a secondary stack than take up my TE slot. Alas, you can always play two TEs, a strategy that might very well be feasible this week, considering Waller and Kelce are more like WRs than traditional TEs.
Leverage
Dalvin Cook
Every slate Cook is on, he seems to be massively owned. Kirk Cousins ($6,100), Jefferson, and Smith are the way to leverage Cook. Paying up for two high priced WRs is another way to leverage Cook with different roster construction.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Seeing as how Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce will be very popular NFL DFS picks this week, rostering Edwards-Helaire and hoping he scores the majority of the TDs is a good way to pivot off of the Kansas City passing attack.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray ($8,200) is projected to be the QB2 for the week, while DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) is the WR4, yet neither will be owned in tournaments. Combining those two with either Andy Isabella ($3,000) or Christian Kirk ($5,800) and running it back with Jakobi Meyers ($5,300) is one of my favorite picks in large field GPPs this week for the Week 12 NFL DFS slate.