Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and that likely means your fantasy football trade deadline either just closed or is closing. That means the waiver wire and matchups are going to become ever more important.
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Quarterbacks to start/sit in fantasy football Week 10
Start ’em – Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is only rostered in 80% of leagues at this point in the season, which means he might even be a streaming option for some leagues. Stafford is the 17th quarterback in total fantasy points and 21st in fantasy points per game. Our own Pro Football Network fantasy metrics have him middling of the pack as well. His Consistency Score (CS) of 8.23 is currently 13th at the position, and his Fantasy Point Differential (FPD) of positive 8% has him ranked 17th in that metric.
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But after posting his best fantasy performance this season in Week 10, against the surprisingly functional Washinton Football team defense, Stafford heads to Charlotte, North Carolina, to take on the Panthers in Week 11. The Panthers have been a cupcake matchup for quarterbacks as of late. While their current D-PAC ranking of 18th doesn’t scream positive matchup, it has been rising over the past few contests.
Over the past four weeks, they are averaging the second-most points given up to the QB position, 26.24, and have given up back to back 30+ point performances. Over that same time period, they would have a D-PAC of 12.91 and be the fourth-highest score in that metric.
There is also a chance that Golladay could be back in Week 11, and that would be one more positive sign for plugging Stafford into your starting lineup. But even without, Stafford showed this past week that he can still produce fantasy numbers.
Sit ’em – Tom Brady
It still feels like cheating to include Tom Brady in the Week 11 start ’em sit ’em column. However, this time it is in the sit section, as Brady has shown to be less than stellar at times and far more matchup dependant for fantasy as a Buccaneer than in days past.
Brady’s CS of 6.82 ranks 19th heading into Monday Night Football, and he has only been a top-12 option in 50% of games played. His floor of 2.36 points was as recent as Week 9, and his average fantasy points per game, 20.43, is more than 10 points less than his Week 10 performance (31.84). He does host a positive FPD of 13%, which is good enough for QB14 in that metric, and still suggests Brady has high upside potential, given the right matchups.
Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams isn’t a stream-worthy matchup for Brady, however. The Rams are 30th in D-PAC and 31st in average points allowed. They just muzzled Russell Wilson in Week 10 for his worst fantasy performance and on-the-field performance, for that matter. Wilson only had 248 yards passing for no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Rams defense has been a team to avoid at the position this season, and Brady is no longer matchup proof.
Which running backs should you start/sit in fantasy football Week 10?
Start ’em – Damien Harris
Harris was a “game-time decision” going into Week 10. He then went off for a healthy 5.5 yards per carry on his way to 121 yards on 22 carries against the stout Baltimore Ravens defense. Sadly, he didn’t receive any targets in the passing game. But even without any involvement in that half of the offense, he out-touched Rex Burkhead (who had the second most) 22 to 11. Damien Harris’ fantasy potential is quite high considering he is the clear “workhorse” back on a team that runs the ball more than anyone else in the NFL, both good things for his fantasy value.
Being the workhorse back on any team is good. But being the workhorse back on a team taking on the Houston Texans is great! The Texans allow the most yards (1,507) and yards per carry (5.2) while being tied for the seventh most rushing touchdowns allowed. Their average fantasy points allowed to running backs rank third, and their D-PAC ranks second. They are one of the surest matchups in fantasy right now, and Damien Harris is going to steamroll this defense all day. If for no other reason than because they can, and they have no other facet to this offense.
Sit ’em – Todd Gurley
Allow me a brief victory lap, will you? Todd Gurley, the “washed” Todd Gurley, is sixth on the season in total fantasy points right now. I preached long and hard this offseason to say he would be a valuable fantasy asset this season, and his 11th highest CS (5.65) shows he has been. But what is somewhat surprising is that he isn’t a contributor in the passing attack for the Atlanta Falcons. He only has 22 targets on the season, which ranks 34th among running backs and well below where I expected him to be with Matt Ryan under center.
Week 11 features an NFC South showdown with the New Orleans Saints playing host to the Falcons. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns in the entire NFL. Their average fantasy points allowed to the position, 18.47, is second lowest, and the D-PAC score ranks 29th. This is a team to avoid when it comes to RB matchups in fantasy, and while it still seems odd to see Todd Gurley feature in the sit section of a start ’em sit ’em article, if you have a better option in Week 11, then Gurley should be avoided.
What receivers should you start ’em/sit ’em in fantasy football for Week 10?
Start ’em – Justin Jefferson
Monday night saw Justin Jefferson reach double-digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 6. With only four targets per game heading into Week 10, it is no real surprise his fantasy performance is suffering, and he’s only the 36th WR in CS. His +55% FPD, on the other hand, shows just how dangerous he is as a receiver. He ranks first among all qualified receivers in that metric.
It’s his 58th ranked Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) that is the only thing keeping him from a breakout rookie campaign. However, this discrepancy does make him a regular point of focus when it comes to start ’em and sit ’em analysis, especially with a favorable Week 11 matchup for his fantasy football value.
Related | Fantasy WR Rankings Week 11: Sleepers, must starts, busts
Despite the Minnesota Vikings’ offense clearly running through Dalvin Cook first and foremost, you can feel good about starting Jefferson against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. The Cowboys secondary has allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns on the season and has the fifth-highest average points allowed. They are the eighth highest in D-PAC to the WR position as well. Ahead of their bye, in Week 9, we saw this team give up a combined 63 PPR Points to the Pittsburgh wide receiver corp.
Minnesota would be smart to give Dalvin Cook an extra bye week and chuck the ball all over the place this week. They won’t, of course, but, even so, Justin Jefferson should have no issues taking advantage of this secondary.
Sit ’em – Mike Evans
Mike Evans, who always previously fell into the “start your studs” category, and couldn’t be included in start ’em sit ’em columns with any sense of dignity, has fallen down the Consistency Score rankings with Brady coming to town, ranking 29th heading into Week 11. Additionally, Evans has only been a top-24 option in 40% of games played this season. Four times this season, Evans hasn’t even reached double-digit fantasy points, he’s barely averaging six targets a game, and this week he has one of the worst matchups for receivers in fantasy.
Jalen Ramsey and the Los Angeles Rams secondary has been a matchup to run away from when it comes to receivers in fantasy. This past week Ramsey limited D.K. Metcalf, the fifth overall receiver in fantasy, to two receptions for 28 yards and no touchdowns. After shadowing Metcalf in Week 10, it shouldn’t be a surprise if he is plastered to Evans all day Sunday.
As a whole, the Rams defense is suffocating receivers, limiting them to the third-fewest receiving yards, fewest yards per reception, and receiving touchdowns in the NFL. When it comes to fantasy, they have the fewest points allowed and the lowest D-PAC to the WR position, making even the most sure-fire start a player to consider as a sit when matching up with them.
Start ’em Sit ’em | Which tight ends should you trust or be cautious of in Week 11?
Start ’em – Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas plays tight end for the Washington Football team. I need to include that little tidbit of information before I go further into the start sit analysis because there is a number of fantasy football managers who may have no idea who Logan Thomas is.
Since Alex Smith has returned to QB for the Washington Football Team, Thomas has averaged six targets per game. To put that into perspective, Mark Andrews averaged 6.5 targets per game in 2019 when he had his career fantasy season. Smith has been a big-time utilizer of the tight end position in the past, and 2020 looks to be no different.
But targets aren’t everything for tight ends. The matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals is what makes Thomas an intriguing option this week. The Bengals’ average of 16.27 fantasy points allowed to TEs is second highest in the NFL. The D-PAC score of 5.16 is sixth. They are a team to target weekly at the position.
Sit ’em – Robert Tonyan
The Green Bay Packers finally have a top-10 fantasy tight end on their roster. Robert Tonyan is ninth in terms of total fantasy points on the season, 10th in CS, and number one overall at the position in terms of FPD. So how can a fantasy manager possibly afford to sit Tonyan?
Well, over the past five weeks, his average fantasy points per game have dipped to 4.88, and he’s only hit double digits once over that time. To make matters worse, the Packers head to Indianapolis to take on the Colts, who average the second-fewest points allowed to the position and is the proud owner of the lowest D-PAC score to the TE position. Unless your last name is Kelce or Waller, you have to consider matchups for tight ends. Right now, the Colts are the TE matchup you should try to avoid more than any other in the NFL.
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