We have almost reached the end of Week 10 in fantasy football, but there remain two more games that can decide whether you walk away with a win or a loss, starting with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the New England Patriots. One of the biggest remaining questions heading into kickoff is if Patriots RB Damien Harris is playing tonight vs. the Ravens after suffering an injury in the team’s last game. In a matchup that figures to focus around the rushing game thanks to the weather forecast, determining who the primary back is for the Patriots could help give you the edge you need to come out of this week with the win.
Damien Harris is active and will see the field on Sunday Night Football
Coming into Sunday, New England Patriots running back Damien Harris was hopeful to play tonight in his Week 10 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning. And now, we have received official word from the Patriots that he is active for tonight’s game.
Harris has been nursing a chest injury he suffered Monday night against the New York Jets. The last time he was out, Harris looked good, rushing 14 times for 71 yards. But it was also against the Jets, and everyone looks good against them.
When he has been on the field, Harris has impressed – he has rushed 67 times in his five games this year for 350 yards and one touchdown. It was easy to see why there was optimism in the offseason for him to be the opening week’s starter before having surgery on his hand that delayed the start of his season.
The downside of Harris is the complete lack of usage in the passing game, which drastically caps his ceiling any week. He has seen just two targets in his NFL career.
There is no bellcow back in New England, making it difficult to trust any option
This statement is nothing new. For years, we have been saying it, but 2020 made things even more complicated by adding in one of the best rushing quarterbacks in NFL history.
The one option we know the Patriots won’t have going into tonight is Sony Michel, who is out with a quad injury. But, there are still four other mouths to feed, including Damien Harris.
Even though the Patriots have rushed the third-most in the NFL (262) for the fifth-most yards (1,277), there has been little to benefit from a fantasy perspective. In total scrimmage yards, Rex Burkhead leads the team with 388 all-purpose yards. He has rushed 57 times for 236 yards and three touchdowns while adding 19 receptions on 25 targets for an additional 152 yards and one touchdown. Unfortunately for fantasy, he is only RB31 in PPR formats.He will eat into Damien Harris’ snaps tonight.
Then it’s RB James White who may also eat into Damien Harris’ snaps. However, White has completely disappeared in this offense. The 2019 RB18 in PPR, White has just 246 yards on the season. And he has rushed 16 times for 51 yards and has caught 25 of 30 targets for 195 yards. However, he has failed to find the end zone.
Ultimately, White has been phased out of this offense over the last month. In their last three games, he’s totaled just four carries and ten targets.
The biggest elephant in the room is the player with a #1 on his chest in the New England locker room, Cam Newton. We knew he would impact the backfield, but I am not sure if we realized it would be to the extent we have seen so far through eight games. Newton has rushed 69 times for 314 yards and eight touchdowns. He is second on the team in yardage but had more touchdowns than everyone else on the team…combined, rushing or receiving. He’s yet another player who will eat into Damien Harris’ opportunities tonight.
Even if Harris is playing tonight, the involvement of Cam Newton, especially inside the 5-yard line, makes him extremely difficult to trust against the fourth-best defense in fantasy points allowed to running backs (19.23).
The weather is likely to play a factor in New England, emphasizing the rushing game for both teams
Kicking off at 8:20 PM ET puts us right in the winds for the worst weather of the day when looking at the Week 10 weather forecast. 50-degree temperatures will be met with 18-20 MPH winds and gusts that can reach up to 43 MPH during the ball game. There is also an increasing chance of rain throughout the game. At 8 PM, there is a 70% chance that climbs up to 95% by 10 PM. Expect rainfall amounts to be around two-tenths of an inch throughout the game.
Can you risk playing Damien Harris in fantasy on Sunday Night Football vs. the Ravens?
It is hard to see Damien Harris being more than an RB4 in this contest, knowing the shared attempts plus the split in carries along with Newton stealing the red zone carries.
Only one running back this year has run for more than 64 yards on the ground against the Ravens, which was Miles Sanders. But, that can be misleading as he had a 74-yard run. Take that away, and he goes back to a pedestrian 40 yards rushing.
If I were going to take a chance on any Patriots RB, I would look at Rex Burkhead as it seems he has won the receiving battle over James White. Do I feel confident in this decision? No, I don’t because I know that trying to make money on betting which RB Bill Belichick will feature is a losing bet. I have a hard time seeing either Burkhead or White finishing as better than an RB3 this week, and even that might be a reach.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.