Most teams in the NFL have one reliable fantasy football wide receiver. It is rare to find a team with two options capable of winning fantasy matchups each week, but that is what the Los Angeles Rams have in WRs Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Both receivers are heading into an ideal matchup against the Seattle Seahawks in what should be a shootout. Which wide receiver is the better play in Week 10, and should there be any cause for concern with the recent reports of Kupp battling a wrist injury?
Coming out of the bye week, Cooper Kupp was limited with an injury
The Rams had Week 9 off after a difficult loss to the Dolphins. A few players got banged up in that game, including Cooper Kupp, whose injury has lingered into this week of practice.
However, the specific injury isn’t clear. Head coach Sean McVay told reporters that Kupp has a wrist injury, but the official injury report states that Kupp has an injured oblique muscle. Kupp was seen flexing his wrist during the game against Miami, and it still seems to be bothering him.
“He’s on track to play,” McVay said. “We’re just going to be smart with him. We’re limited in what we do on a Wednesday, anyways.” Kupp has been listed as a limited participant on both the Wednesday and Thursday injury reports, but it does seem to be more of a precaution than any real concern for his status on Sunday.
While Rams WR Cooper Kupp has been reliable, he has disappointed a bit due to one major drop-off
Maybe Cooper Kupp’s wrist hurt because he saw a completely absurd 20 targets against the Dolphins. In a somewhat surprising trend in 2020, Kupp has seen 17 more targets than Robert Woods this year. Kupp remains on track with his 2019 numbers, but Robert Woods has seen a significant decrease in production compared to last yet.
In 2019, Cooper Kupp caught 94 of his 134 targets for 1,161 yards. This year, through eight games, 71 targets, 48 receptions, and 527 yards have him on a 16 game pace for 96 receptions on 148 targets and 1,054 yards. If you can draft someone in fantasy who will have back to back years of 90+ catches and over 1,100 yards, you would be ecstatic. However, the massive elephant in the room I have failed to mention is the touchdown figures between the two years.
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In 2019, Cooper Kupp scored a ridiculous 10 touchdowns through the air, second only to Detroit Lions WR Kenny Golladay with 11. So far, Kupp has gotten into the end zone only twice. We knew that Kupp was in line for a regression in touchdowns as they are the most volatile stat and producer of fantasy points. But, this has been a bit more severe than even the most conservative models would have projected. Even going back and looking at my own, I had Kupp down for seven touchdowns on the season.
Due to his drop in touchdowns, Kupp’s points per game is down from 16.9 in 2019 to 14.2 in 2020, 27th among WRs in PPR scoring. We just haven’t seen the massive blowup games for Kupp this year. While he has scored double-digit fantasy points in six of eight games, he has scored over 15 points only three times, with two of those games having his only touchdowns on the year.
Despite the lack of touchdowns, Kupp is a must-start every week. He is top 10 in targets and receptions, and if you threw on a few more scores, he would be inside the top 15 at the position. The Rams offense is one of the highest in the pace of play and pass-happy teams in the NFL, and there is a weekly shot at a multiple touchdown game any time Cooper Kupp steps on the field. Week 10 might be the best chance he has all season. He is a locked-in WR1 for me this week against a historically bad Seattle passing defense.
What happened to Robert Woods’ targets this year?
Out of the numerous storylines from 2020, this has been more puzzling for me to figure out. In 2019, Robert Woods led the Rams WRs with 139 targets, eighth-most in the NFL. He caught 90 of those passes for 1,134 yards but only scored twice. In 2020, we have seen the touchdowns come back, but now there is a lack of volume.
While Woods has doubled his receiving touchdowns from last year (4), he has only seen 54 targets in his eight games, hauling in 37 passes for 436 yards. That puts him on pace to end the year with only 108 targets and 872 yards. After back to back seasons of 130+ targets, this is slightly concerning. Even last week, where Kupp saw 20 targets, Woods was targeted only eight times despite playing on 88 offensive snaps and having the largest average separation at 4.85 of any other Rams WR.
The one stat for Woods that gets overlooked is his rushing ability that consistently elevates his floor. He already has over 100 rushing yards and has now scored twice on the ground, including once in Week 8. This gave Woods his first multi-score game since Week 16 of 2018 when he had both a receiving and a rushing TD against the Arizona Cardinals.
I expect a major bounceback for Robert Woods in Week 10
While he hasn’t seen the targets so far this year, that all should change against the Seahawks defense, whose ineptitude is at a historic pace. The Seahawks are on pace to give up 1,000 more yards than any other team in history.
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If you’re tired of single-digit target games for Woods, get ready to see an explosion in Week 10. The Seahawks have allowed wide receivers to be targeted a league-leading 66.9% of the time. Throw on the 62% target share for Rams WRs, and this matchup screams high-volume.
The 59.5 PPR points per game Seattle has allowed is the highest in the league, and it’s not even close. Tennessee sits second and has allowed 46.6 PPR points per game to them. They also can’t stop receivers from catching the ball as they are allowing a league-leading 71.8% catch rate.
Woods is likely set to match up against CB Quinton Dunbar, who has been a complete liability all season but is also battling knee issues.
Which Rams WR should you start, Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods?
Honestly, I don’t think it matters so long as you have them both firmly in your starting lineup.
I mentioned Dunbar when talking about Woods, but he and Shaquill Griffin are far from locks to play on Sunday. Griffin continues to deal with a hamstring injury suffered against Arizona, and Carroll said when he talked to the media via Zoom that Griffin is “running some’’ but that he won’t know until the end of the week if he can play.
Neither of them has practiced this week, and the chances of starting or playing any meaningful snaps are dwindling quickly.
They are already allowing a staggering 59.50 fantasy points per game to receivers. That is over two touchdowns worth more than the next closest team in the Atlanta Falcons at a measly 44.76. Take away two of their better cornerbacks, and this is a nightmare situation for Seattle and a dream for fantasy managers.
Seattle’s defense is allowing a ridiculous 22 receptions per game to wide receivers alone. There are just six teams who’ve seen 176 targets to wide receivers this season, which is the number of receptions the Seahawks have allowed.
I can easily see Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp each going over the 100-yard mark and combining for three touchdowns. I have Woods as the WR11 for the week, and Kupp falls right behind him at WR12. You cannot go wrong with either player in what should be the highest-scoring game of the week.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.