After I discussed the “late swap” in the beginning segment of this article last week, it becomes something that will be heavily in play this week. The Week 10 NFL DFS main slate has six games that start at roughly 4 pm EST. The late swap will be imperative this week, as the two highest totals on the slate are in this time slot. How you handle these two games will determine your outcome in NFL cash games and guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments.
The Week 10 NFL DFS slate features just three games with a total under 50 and four dome games, and five games with a spread right around three. There could be plenty of high scoring back and forth affairs this weekend.
Week 10 NFL DFS cash game values
Quarterback
Kyler Murray ($8000) / Josh Allen ($7500) – The Buffalo/Arizona game has the highest total on the board, will be played in a dome, and features two offenses in the top 10 in situation neutral pace in the league, according to Football Outsiders. Buffalo has the third-highest pass/run ratio on early downs in situation neutral game scripts (according to Sharp Football Stats), while Murray has the second-most rushing attempts of all QBs. If you can afford to pay up for QB in NFL cash games this weekend, it’s for one of these two. They also own the highest ceiling for GPPs.
Jared Goff ($6500) – The Rams have the third-highest implied team total (28) on the slate, while Goff is priced as the QB7. That’s about all I like about him. He doesn’t offer a lot of rushing upside, while the price is not something I’m excited to pay for a pocket passer.
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I think Goff is a fringe NFL cash game play this weekend. If you get caught in a position where you like your lineup enough and Goff fits in with the rest of what you’re trying to do, then I don’t hate it. I wouldn’t prioritize him, but also wouldn’t hate it if I landed on him in cash games.
Derek Carr ($5400) / Tua Tagovailoa ($5600) – If you’re looking to pay down at QB in NFL cash games this weekend, one of these two should be the one you’re rostering. Carr has the fourth-highest implied team total (27.5) on the slate, while Tua has the eighth (25.5).
The Dolphins pass at a higher rate than the Raiders, while the Raiders are projected to score almost three more points than the Dolphins. Both offer modest rushing upside as well. If you can’t get up to either Allen or Murray, either one of these QBs is a fine selection.
Running Back
The Week 10 NFL DFS main slate has some desirable options at the RB position for cash games. Choosing the correct three will be pivotal for hitting the cash line this weekend.
Alvin Kamara ($8200) – Kamara’s Week 9 advanced metrics don’t paint a pretty picture: 17% target share, 36% rush share, and a 51% snap share. The Saints destroyed the Buccaneers, so there wasn’t much reason to ride Kamara in this game. This was also the return of Michael Thomas ($7400), so the dip in the target share was expected.
You’ll be banking on efficiency if you roster Kamara in NFL cash games this weekend. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a tough matchup for RBs (sixth hardest, according to Philip Caldwell’s Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score), the San Francisco 49ers are second in the same regard. The Saints are (-8.5) point favorites against the 49ers this weekend, so we could see a reduced snap share from Kamara yet again.
Aaron Jones ($7100) – Jones is probably the player I choose to pay up for over Kamara, although it doesn’t come without some hesitation. Despite Jones playing in his first game off an injury last Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers choose to play him when the game was well out of reach. It amounted to a 61% snap share, 60% of the RB rush attempts, and a 16% target share (on par with his 17% total on the year).
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Even though they showed a propensity to play Jones in a blowout, there’s no guarantee they choose to do so again. That situation could come into play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 14-point underdogs this weekend. Jamaal Williams ($4000) is back, limiting the Packers’ need to use Jones in another potential blow out. However, I think Jones can “get there” in just a half of action, as the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the RB position.
Chase Edmonds ($6300) – Edmonds’ 95% snap share in Week 9 was the third-highest of the year among all RBs. He saw 100% of the Cardinals RB opportunities against the Dolphins, yet he is $500 cheaper than last week. Edmonds has the second-highest implied team total (29) on the slate, while Buffalo is the worst defense against RBs, according to Caldwell’s D-PAC.
Duke Johnson ($5000) – David Johnson has been ruled out, which leaves the door open for Johnson (the Duke version) to command potentially all of the RB opportunities this weekend. There could be some heavy wind in this game like we saw in the Raiders/Browns game a few weeks ago, which will only help the short passing game for Duke. I don’t like him as much as I like the next guy, but paying down at two RB positions is absolutely in play this week in NFL cash games.
Mike Davis ($4000) – Christian McCaffrey’s return was short-lived, as he is expected to miss this game against the Buccaneers. While Tampa Bay poses a tough matchup for RBs, it doesn’t matter at Davis’ price. He’s too cheap and should be the first player in your cash game builds this weekend.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams ($9000) – Adams headlines the WR position this week as the most expensive, highest projected, and most owned WR of the week. I can’t break down the merits of playing and fading him any better than Derek Carty did on Twitter. I’ll leave you with my quick take on the situation: I’m probably not playing him cash games this weekend.
Stefon Diggs ($7500) – Since Week 6, Diggs is third in target share (35.25%), fourth in weighted opportunities (83.33), and second in targets (40), according to FTN Daily. Diggs plays in a dome this week in the highest total on the slate. He will be popular but is my option to pay up for a WR.
Cooper Kupp ($6900) – Kupp has been the Rams passing game alpha since Week 7. He is fourth in the league in raw targets and in the top 15 in the league in target share at 26.33%. The Seahawks are the softest matchup for WRs, according to D-PAC.
Terry McLaurin ($6800) – Here is your weekly reminder that McLaurin is a boss and can be played in any format. Since Week 6, he’s fifth in the league in target share (34.33%) and fourth in WOPR at 86.27. The game state won’t be ideal, but it’s a dome, which is the best environment to play in for an offense. He’s in play in all formats, particularly in GPPs, where he doesn’t project to garner much ownership.
Christian Kirk ($5700) – While it’s only a three-week sample, since Week 7, Kirk leads the Cardinals in targets (16), target share (24.5%), and WOPR (57.75). I don’t know if this continues or not, but we need to at least have Kirk in our player pool this week in case this is a trend that continues.
Brandin Cooks ($5600 )– Since Week 5, Cooks leads the Houston Texans in targets (39), target share (28%), and WOPR (64.05). The wind looks to be an issue this weekend in Cleveland, so be sure to check on the weather Sunday morning if you plan on playing Cooks. If the winds are at 15MPH sustained or less, Cooks gets the green light from a weather perspective.
Jerry Jeudy ($5600) – Jeudy has lapped all Denver WRs in air yards (413), target share (22.67%), targets (28), and WOPR (61.77) since Week 7. His 413 air yards are the second-most in the league in that same time frame. The rookie seems to be coming on in the second half of the year and is firmly in play this weekend, in the dome, at Las Vegas.
Jalen Reagor ($4200) – In his first game back from injury, Reagor played 73% of the snaps and commanded a 23% target share. The Giants pose the third easiest matchup for WRs, according to D-PAC.
Danny Amendola ($3900) – He had 10 targets last weekend with Kenny Golladay missing the game. Golladay has already been ruled out this week, so Amendola could again be in line for a surplus of targets.
Josh Reynolds ($3500) – Since Week 7, Reynold has just one fewer target than Robert Woods ($6600) and leads the Rams in air yards during that time frame. Reynolds’ average depth of target isn’t ideal for a cash game setting, but you’re getting an equal target share to Woods at a $3000 discount. I don’t mind Reynolds in cash games this weekend, though I prefer him more in GPPs.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller ($5900) – Waller is the top projected play at the TE position this weekend. However, $5900 might be too much to pay for a TE in Week 10 NFL DFS cash games.
Evan Engram ($4500) – The production hasn’t been there, but the peripherals have. He leads the Giants in targets (32), target share (25.5%), WOPR (58.2), and is second in air yards (214) since Week 6. 32 targets is second among all TEs in that span, while his target share ranks fourth.
Dallas Goedert ($4200) – Goedert received just one target in his first game back from injury but led all Eagles TEs with an 84% snap share.
Austin Hooper ($3900) – Hooper hasn’t played since Week 6 but logged target totals of six, 10, and seven in his previous three games. Houston is the seventh softest matchup for TEs, according to D-PAC.
Jordan Reed ($3500) – Reed is probably the lowest I go at TE in cash games this week. He played just 23% of the snaps in his return in Week 9 but is a far better pass catcher than teammate Ross Dwelley (two targets vs. zero for Dwelley in Week 9). He should lead the 49ers TEs in targets this weekend at the Saints, who rank as the third easiest matchup according to D-PAC.
Defenses
As always, don’t target point prevention. You want defenses who will face a high volume of pass attempts, as pass plays are the best chance for sacks and turnovers.
Green Bay ($3700) – The Packers are 13.5-point favorites against a rookie QB making his second start and an offensive line that ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate, according to Football Outsiders.
New Orleans ($3000) – Nick Mullens can make some atrocious throws at times. I’d like it if the 49ers were a bit more pass-heavy, but they could be forced to do so considering the Saints are over a touchdown favorite against San Francisco.
Arizona ($2600) – Josh Allen has been known to be inaccurate, and the Bills pass at one of the highest rates in the league.
LAR ($2200) – The Seahawks pass at one of the highest rates in the league and have an offensive line in the bottom third in terms of pass protection.
GPP Game stacks, pivots, and leverage spots
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals / Total 56.5
Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs will be one of, if not the most popular, QB/WR stacks on the Week 10 NFL DFS main slate. The most popular run-back will be Chase Edmonds. All of these plays project well, so I don’t blame anyone for going this route. However, in large field GPPs, it’ll be challenging to separate yourself from the field by rostering this stack.
One way to attack this game and be different is to stack Murray with either Hopkins or Kirk. Both Hopkins and Kirk project for less than 10% ownership, so I think you can run it back with Diggs and still have enough leverage on the rest of the field in GPPs.
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I wouldn’t double stack (QB/WR/WR) either of these teams, as Allen and Murray have enough rushing upside to not support two receivers. I do like the idea of stacking Murray with either Hopkins or Kirk and running it back with Zack Moss ($5200).
Moss could rush for a touchdown and catch another, while Allen runs one in himself and throws a touchdown to a secondary part of the offense. At that point, the Bills would have scored 28 points, but it’s Moss that benefitted the most. Moss also negatively correlates with Edmonds, as does the Arizona passing game. If you go down this route, you’re pivoting off the most popular QB/WR stack and most owned RB while still having heavy exposure to the best game on the slate.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams / Total 55.5
Most of the field in the Week 10 NFL DFS slate will be targeting the Rams passing game in GPPs, and for good reason. Seattle has been atrocious against opposing passing attacks, and the Rams have several capable WRs who can exploit this matchup.
Some may point to the Rams being a run-heavy team as a reason to be lower on their passing game this weekend. However, that hasn’t been the case for the past three weeks. Since Week 6, Los Angeles has had a 57/43 pass/rush ratio on early downs in neutral game scripts; up 7% from their season-long metrics. That could be small sample size noise or a sign of things to come. I’m not entirely sure.
Regardless of what the Rams strive to be on the actual football field, our job is to figure out the best way to attack this game in GPPs. I like stacking the Seahawks passing attack and running it back with Darrell Henderson ($5900).
Unlike the Arizona/Buffalo game, I don’t mind double stacking Wilson here, as he doesn’t possess the rushing upside of the QBs from the previous game. However, I wouldn’t stack both Tyler Lockett ($6500) and D.K. Metcalf ($7600), as you’ll need a massive performance for that stack to pay off its salary. Instead, I prefer to pair them with David Moore ($3400) or one of their TEs if you’re feeling lucky. Good luck picking the correct one.
Chris Carson ($6200) appears on track to play in this game and makes a terrific low-owned run back option with your Rams passing stacks. As for those Rams’ stacks, I’m taking the same approach with Los Angeles as I am with Seattle: not stacking Woods and Kupp together. Instead, I prefer going to Goff, Kupp/Woods, and Gerald Everett ($3100) or Reynolds. The latter two won’t hamstring the rest of your lineup and have seen enough usage to pay off their salaries.
Low owned game stacks
If you want to bank on both of the above games falling short of expectations, then I’d attack the Broncos/Raiders and Chargers/Dolphins games in GPPs.
For the Las Vegas game, I prefer either a Carr/Waller “skinny stack” with a Jeudy run back or a double stack of the Broncos passing game and running it back with either Waller or Josh Jacobs ($6500).
As for the Miami game, the loss of Preston Williams lowers my excitement for this game. However, we can still make a Tua double stack with a Keenan Allen ($7100) run back, at which point you can do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup. If you’re going to stack the Justin Herbert ($6600) side, I would avoid targets Allen and Mike Williams ($5400). You can use Hunter Henry ($4100), as well, but he doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for me. Then again, not many TEs do.
Mike Davis
Davis projects to be the highest-owned player on the NFL Week 10 DFS main slate in cash and GPPs. I can’t, in good faith, recommend fading him entirely. However, I don’t mind having a few lineups stacking the Carolina Panthers passing attack in GPPs, hoping they soak up all of the Carolina touchdowns.
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I also like the idea of paying up at both RB spots and banking on some lower-priced WRs hitting their ceilings. You’re banking on some $4000 WRs outperforming or being on par with Davis, which is well within the range of outcomes.
Aaron Jones, Davante Adams
I am probably altogether fading Adams in the few lineups I usually make, while I don’t mind being over the field or equal to it regarding Jones. I don’t think it’s feasible to play Aaron Rodgers ($7900) with these two, as that stack will have difficulty paying off its salary.
One way to get frisky is to stack the Jaguars offense and have your run back be either Jones or Adams. I’m not too fond of that myself, but it’d be a way to bank on Adams/Jones doing well and being different at the same time. If you want a GPP pivot in this range, it’s Kamara, who is within $1000 of both players and can easily outscore both of them.
Michael Thomas
Thomas had a 55% snap share and six targets in his return to action. His $7400 price tag is the lowest its been since early last season when Teddy Bridgewater was the Saints starter. We can’t project him for a high volume role this weekend due to the high spread and the Saints’ addition of Emmanuel Sanders ($4800). For that reason, I’m only looking at him in GPPs. Would I be surprised if he’s the highest-scoring WR on the week? Absolutely not, which is why he’s an excellent GPP pivot.