Antonio Brown returns to an NFL field for the first time in over a year tonight when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the New Orleans Saints to Raymond James Stadium. He bolsters a Tampa Bay receiving room that has a legitimate chance of taking the Buccaneers to a championship in 2020, but as we head down the stretch of the fantasy football season, can Antonio Brown help deliver your team a championship? What fantasy expectations should we have for Brown in his first appearance since helping the New England Patriots defeat the Miami Dolphins last September?
Antonio Brown’s fantasy history
For a period of time in the mid-2010s, Brown was one of the most sought after and valuable commodities at the wide receiver position for any fantasy football owner. He was at his prime in 2014, where his 1698 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns netted him 251.9 total points at 15.7 points per game in standard scoring leagues and 380.9 points at 23.8 points per game in PPR leagues.
Demanding the majority of targets throughout his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Brown continued to secure over 300 points and over 20 points per game in PPR leagues until his departure from the Steel City at the end of the 2018 season. Even in his final turbulent season, he led the NFL in targets making him a must-have for owners in PPR leagues.
However, his performance in standard-scoring leagues declined in line with his value to the Steelers as evidenced by his decline in Pro Football Network OVM ranking, which fell from WR25 in 2016 to WR59 in 2018.
Brown’s most recent fantasy football performance came in his sole appearance for the Patriots. Securing four catches from eight targets, Brown racked up 56 receiving yards and a touchdown while rushing for five yards on one carry. His performance translated to 12.1 points in standard-scoring leagues and 16.1 points in PPR leagues.
Tampa Bay provides the perfect location for a career revival
It seems almost poetic that over 12 months since he last played a down of football, Brown makes his NFL comeback catching passes from Tom Brady, the last man to provide him a touchdown pass. In fact, it appears that Brady has been the driving force behind Brown earning a spot on the Buccaneers roster. Head coach Bruce Arians had categorically stated earlier in 2020 that Brown wasn’t in the Tampa Bay game plan, but what Brady wants, Brady gets. The two built a relationship in New England, and Arians has gambled on that relationship continuing in Tampa Bay.
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On the surface, adding Brown to what seems like a deep wide receiver room seems like a puzzling move. However, the Buccaneers have been hit by the injury bug through the 2020 NFL season with one of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller seemingly on the injury list week in, week out. Evans leads the Buccaneers with 84% of the offensive snaps, but Miller is the only other receiver who has played over 50% of the offensive snaps this year.
The Buccaneers have been a top-10 offense in terms of passing attempts and top-five in terms of passing touchdowns this year. They have shown that they’re not afraid to run four wide receiver sets, making them a seemingly perfect landing spot for Brown to rejuvenate his career.
Fantasy expectations for Antonio Brown vs. the Saints on Sunday Night Football
It seems almost certain that Brown will see game time tonight, regardless of whether Godwin returns from injury. Arians told the media earlier this week that, “He’ll [Brown] have his role it could be 10 plays [or] it could be 35 plays. I wouldn’t anticipate 60 plays, for sure, but we’ll just see how it goes.” There also seems to be no concerns about Brown picking up the Buccaneers playbook or whether he will take time to get back up to game speed.
The Sunday Night Football showdown in the NFC South is a repeat of the opening week fixture between the two, where the Saints came away with a 34-23 win. What does that game tell us about what we could expect from the Buccaneers offense, and therefore Brown, tonight?
Brady threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns, with Godwin his leading target with seven targets, six receptions, and 79 receiving yards. Miller accounted for 73 yards and off six targets and five receptions. Godwin scored 7.9 points in standard scoring, 13.9 in PPR, with Miller scoring the same in standard and 12.9 in PPR.
Antonio Brown’s fantasy expectations for tonight should be tempered, depending on the size of Godwin’s role if he returns to the field. Godwin leads the Buccaneers with 7.25 targets and 69.8 yards per game. If he can’t go or is in a reduced role, then Brown could take on some of that workload, although the greater expectation is that he could eat into Miller’s 4.75 targets and 50 receiving yards per game.
The Saints are an ideal opponent, from a fantasy perspective, for Brown to make a comeback. New Orleans has given up an average of 27.8 points per game to the wide receiver position, the seventh most in the NFL this season. They’ve also allowed the seventh-most touchdowns to the position, including the two to Tampa in Week 1.
His career both on and off the field has been extremely turbulent, but Antonio Brown can make his first steps back to fantasy football relevance tonight.
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Oliver Hodgkinson is an NFL Draft and NFL analytics contributor for the Pro Football Network. You can follow him on Twitter at @ojhodgkinson.