What’s the best outcome for the New York Mets? Winning the division and throwing a World Series parade in Queens. But there’s also the possibility they finish in fourth place and deal with another year of “what ifs.”
With a powerful offense and a pitching staff that’s a bit shaky, 2025 could go either way.
Kodai Senga’s 2023 Brilliance and 2024 Setbacks
Kodai Senga has proved to be a standout pitcher both in Japan and Major League Baseball. In Nippon Professional Baseball, he was a key member of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, helping them win multiple Japan Series titles, including in 2018 and 2019. In 2022, he posted an 11-6 record with a career-best 1.94 ERA in 22 games.
The Mets signed Senga in December 2022 to a five-year, $75 million contract, which included a $5 million signing bonus. He earns $14 million per year from 2023 to 2027, with a club option for 2028 at $15 million. If Senga accumulates 400 innings from 2023 to 2025, he has the option to opt out after the 2025 season.
Right after the deal, Matt Snyder said, “He’s an ace, and we’ve seen it carry over in recent years with other aces like Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, so we think that it probably will translate into frontline stuff, even if it’s not right away. There’s always an adjustment period.”
Columnist John Harper also weighed in during an appearance with Jason Spells on “SportsNite,” saying, “I think it’s a great move for the Mets potentially because he throws hard in the high 90s and has this wipeout splitter, strikeout-type of pitch.”
In 2023, Senga made a name for himself as a rookie, posting a 12-7 record with a 2.98 ERA and 202 strikeouts across 166 1/3 innings. His impressive numbers made him a finalist for the National League Rookie of the Year award. He finished second in ROTY voting and even drew some Cy Young Award consideration.
Unfortunately, Senga was later diagnosed with a moderate strain in the posterior capsule of his throwing shoulder, placing him on the injured list and sidelining him for the remainder of the season.
Senga returned on July 26, 2024, and pitched 5 1/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves. However, he suffered a serious left calf strain during the game, forcing him to miss the rest of the regular season.
New York Mets Offense Has the Firepower To Carry Team in 2025
Senga put on a strong performance against the St. Louis Cardinals on March 14, 2025. In 53 pitches, he allowed two runs on seven hits, showing his ability to battle through tough situations.
In the postgame press conference, he said, “Very pleased that I’m able to get out of [the game] healthy. There are a lot of things that I wanted to try out. I was able to. Just great to be out there.”
He continued, “One thing is the consistency of the gyro slider — I have been working on that for a while now. Some good feels here and there. And also the sinker; I have been practicing, starting to practice, and [had] some good pitches here and there as well.”
With Juan Soto leading the charge and stars like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos in the lineup, the Mets have several hitters capable of making the All-Star team.
If the pitching staff holds up despite early injuries, and with Sean Manaea returning strong from his oblique strain, the Mets could be in position to compete at the highest level.
Read Also: Projecting the New York Mets Opening Day Roster
However, if the starting rotation falters due to injuries or poor performance, the Mets could be looking at a disappointing fourth-place finish. If key pitchers like Manaea and Frankie Montas miss significant time, New York’s depth will be tested.
If Alonso’s offensive numbers decline, Lindor performs at an average level, and Vientos fails to replicate his breakout year, the offense might not be enough to overcome the team’s pitching concerns.