We’re in a golden stretch of sports. Major League Baseball has meaningful games this week, March Madness brackets are out, and the NHL playoff push is in full swing with the postseason about a month away.
So I get why a Washington Wizards vs. Portland Trail Blazers game might not be at the top of your watchlist. What I don’t get is passing on a game—no matter how ugly—when there’s value to be found.
Washington Wizards vs. Portland Trail Blazers Best Bet
The Wizards opened their season by losing 47 of their first 56 games, but the NBA has let them get hot. Washington has won six of its past 10, including road wins in Detroit and Denver in its last two outings.
It’s obviously too late for a turnaround, but is this recent “surge” even remotely sustainable?
I’d be surprised.
Their 3-point attempt rate has spiked lately—46.7% of their shots over this 10-game stretch, up from 43% before. The math nerd in me likes that shift, but a strong two weeks isn’t enough to convince me this is an advantage for Washington.
Worst 3P% When Left Open This Season
- Charlotte Hornets: 34.9%
- Philadelphia 76ers: 34.8%
- Washington Wizards: 34%
- Orlando Magic: 31.6%
That Orlando number is downright embarrassing, but Washington isn’t much better. While the Wizards might be leaning into analytics, they’re also leaning into a weakness—which isn’t exactly a winning formula.
Add in the fact that Portland ranks fifth in opponent 3-point rate, and my skepticism only grows. I don’t think the Wizards can make threes consistently in any circumstance, and I’m not banking on them getting many clean looks tonight.
The Blazers don’t do much at a high level, but they are a top-10 team in opponent turnover rate. Meanwhile, Washington’s transition defense hasn’t improved, even during this recent stretch.
Deni Avdija over the last two games:
30.5 PPG
15.5 RPG
5.5 APG
57% FGFirst Blazer since Bill Walton to have consecutive games with – 25+ PTS, 15+ REB, and 5+ AST, per @StatMamba. pic.twitter.com/cgw6AbjfC4
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 13, 2025
I don’t expect anyone to fear a trio of Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, and Anfernee Simons, but they’ve found a rhythm lately. I’d rather put my money on them than on the random number generators that are Jordan Poole and Alex Sarr.
If you think of this as a cheap opportunity to bet against the Wizards rather than backing the Blazers with your hard-earned money, it’s easier to ride with me on this one.
Pick: Trail Blazers -4.5