Normally when a team is coming off of their bye week, they’ve had a chance to rest up and are getting players back. However, that is not the case for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will be forced to make a change at quarterback with rookie QB Jake Luton likely to start against the Houston Texans due to an injury related to Gardner Minshew’s throwing hand. How does the change to Jake Luton as the Jaguars QB affect players from a fantasy football standpoint and the outlook of someone like DJ Chark or James Robinson in fantasy? Is Jake Luton someone people should pick up in fantasy? Or, is it best to avoid the rookie at all costs?
Garnder Minshew is officially out (thumb), leaving Jake Luton as the Jaguars’ starting QB
When the team makes their return from their bye week in Week 9, they will be doing it without QB Gardner Minshew. Head Coach Doug Marrone told reporters on Monday that Minshew won’t take the field and that 2020 sixth-round selection Jake Luton from Oregon State will get the starting QB reps for the Jaguars in practice this week.
Minshew continues to nurse multiple fractures and a strained ligament in his right thumb, an injury that cropped up unexpectedly ahead of Week 8 and will need a few weeks to heal properly.
Minshew started hot in 2020, completing 75.4% of his passes for 512 yards and six touchdowns with two interceptions in the Jaguars’ first two games, but then started to struggle. He completed a season-low 51.9% (14-for-27) for 173 yards and two touchdowns in the Jaguars’ last game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Marrone said he was told after the game that Minshew’s thumb was hurting, but he didn’t learn the severity of the injury until two days later, after Minshew saw a hand specialist and had further tests. A source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that Minshew first hurt his thumb against Houston on October 11 and did not tell the team until last week. Marrone said Minshew would not be disciplined for hiding the injury for two weeks.
Minshew has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,855 yards and 13 touchdowns with five interceptions this season. He also has lost three fumbles, tied for the second-most among all quarterbacks.
The team hopes that Minshew can return as the Jaguars QB in Week 10 when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers.
Former sixth-round pick Jake Luton gets the starting nod over Mike Glennon
One of the more compelling parts of this debacle is that Marrone chose to go with the rookie in Jake Luton over a veteran in Mike Glennon. Marrone is going with the sixth-round pick out of Oregon State even though he’s been inactive for every game behind veteran Mike Glennon.
“I didn’t feel that Jake might have been ready right away to bring him up there, so Mike had the experience, so we brought him up there [to be the No. 2 QB each week],” Marrone said. “And then Jake’s done a nice job. I think Jake has a high ceiling, and that’s my opinion of him. I mean, not to take anything away from Mike, I’ve got a ton of respect for him, and I told that to Mike. I just want to see where this kid’s at. Might as well look. We might as well see what we have. Go ahead and play him, and let’s go.”
It is worth noting that the decision has not been made official. Both Glennon and Luton were told to be ready to compete for the starting role in practice. However, Luton is getting the initial reps with the starters and seems to already have the leg up in this competition and the head coach’s backing. In terms of fantasy, at least Jake Luton gives some upside that could bring value but only in deeper leagues.
The 30-year-old Glennon last started in 2017 in Chicago before being yanked for then-rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky. In his last start in September 2017, Glennon turned the ball over four times — two interceptions and two fumbles. He’s on his fifth team in five years due to his immobility and inaccuracy, leading to struggles and 37 turnovers compared to only 36 touchdowns.
The 6-foot-6 Luton was selected in the sixth round of the 2020 draft by the Jaguars out of Oregon State. Luton completed 62.1% of his passes for 5,227 yards and 42 touchdowns with 11 interceptions in 23 games with Oregon State from 2017 to 2019. During his final collegiate season, the 24-year-old threw 28 touchdowns and just three interceptions for the Beavers.
Luton started in JUCO, beginning his college career at Idaho (2014-15) and then spending a year at Ventura Community College (2016) before making his way to the Beavers.
The journey has not been easy for Luton, and he almost never made it to this point. During a game in 2017 against Washington State, Luton scrambled for a nine-yard gain and was leveled by the opposing safety. Luton went down and didn’t move. Thankfully, Luton regained movement in his limbs before leaving the field and was later diagnosed with a thoracic spine fracture, an area near his ribcage.
Now with a chance to show off his size and arm strength, Jake Luton could take this job over and never give it back. But how would that impact the rest of the players around him, especially for fantasy purposes, by going from a mobile QB to one that will work in the pocket more and has the stronger arm?
How will Jake Luton impact the fantasy value of James Robinson, DJ Chark, and others as the Jaguars as the starting QB?
Going to a rookie quarterback in Luton, I can see the Jaguars wanting to be a bit on the conservative side, utilizing the rushing game and some swing routes to the running backs. This all fits perfectly into James Robinson’s skillset and helps maintain his fantasy status. The UDFA has already been one of the best surprises of the season for fantasy. James Robinson’s 134 touches for 706 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns have him as the RB5 in fantasy PPR formats, and I don’t see that changing with Luton as the Jaguars QB, especially this week.
The Jaguars will take on a Houston Texans team that is awful at stopping the run. Houston ranks fourth in Defense Points Against Consistency (DPAC) with a score of 14.31, meaning they are consistently giving up massive amounts of fantasy points to opposing running backs. So far, in 2020, the Texans have given up an average of 21.11 points to the position, which is 26th in the NFL. I think James Robinson ends up having a top-five fantasy performance in Week 9.
This does not mean that they will abandon the pass, but I am slightly concerned moving forward for the fantasy outlook of guys like DJ Chark or Keelan Cole. Not so much because of Luton’s ability but the lack of time to develop any chemistry with just a week of practice reps.
DJ Chark
Minshew had years to work on his timing with DJ Chark and Keelan Cole, which showed up in the fantasy box scores. However, that hasn’t been paying off this year as Minshew has missed his receivers on multitudes of routes, especially when targeting DJ Chark on deeper throws, resulting in several missed chances for fantasy points.
In Week 7, DJ Chark was the fantasy WR78 after recording just one catch for 26 yards, although he was targeted a team-high seven times. He has also been battling injuries this year, which have slowed him down. Chark also had an ankle injury that hopefully had time to heal over the bye week. DJ Chark is going to be a WR2 for fantasy in Week 9 with Jake Luton under center. However, there is a chance to find them connecting on a deep ball on Sunday as Luton has the arm strength that was lacking with Minshew.
Keelan Cole
Keelan Cole has been up and down all year, so it is hard to expect anything different, even with a change at QB. Cole exploded for a season-high 143 receiving yards in Week 6 and then bottomed out in Week 7 with just 12 yards receiving. In deeper leagues, Keelan Cole is an interesting fantasy option, but with the uncertainty of how Jake Luton will play, I think I would avoid this for at least the upcoming game until we know more.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
Laviska Shenault Jr. is the wide receiver for the Jaguars who I think can see a fantasy bump with Jake Luton under center as he is the one player that the team can move all around the field. Whether in the slot or the backfield as a rusher, Shenault brings a versatility that no one else on the team does, and they can manufacture touches for the rookie that aren’t reliant on Luton all the time. Shenault currently leads the team in catches (29) and is second on the team in total yards (378). While not always the flashy play or someone who will get the deep shot, I think Shenault will continue to thrive in this offense in PPR formats.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.