Well, you did it. You trudged through the “bog of eternal stench” that was Week 8. With “juicy” matchups like New Orleans versus Chicago and Dallas at Philadelphia, this was less than a stellar week in fantasy football for those not named Dalvin Cook. The good news is, it’s over! And we can already look forward to Week 9. Using our Fantasy Football Consistency Score (CS) and Defensive Points Allowed Consistency Score (D-PAC), we can highlight the top Week 9 matchups and players to let you know whether you should start ’em or sit ’em.
If you would like more detailed information on how the CS and D-PAC works, please refer to the Introduction to the Fantasy Football Consistency Score, but the basic premise is, the higher the CS, the more consistent a player is scoring high-level fantasy points. In the case of D-PAC, the higher the number, the more consistently that team allows high-level fantasy points to the position.
PSA: I don’t feel the need to tell you, the savvy fantasy G.M., to start a player like Patrick Mahomes every week. I abide by the golden rule: start your studs. However, if there is glaring evidence to sit a bona fide starter, we will discuss that as needed.
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Quarterbacks to start/sit in fantasy football Week 9
Start ’em – Matt Ryan
In recent history, Matt Ryan would rarely be part of a start ’em sit ’em conversation, but entering Week 9, Ryan has not been a “set it and forget it” QB for fantasy football. His Consistency Score halfway through the season is only 0.79 lower than in 2019, but his CS ranking, 22nd, among quarterbacks is eight spots lower compared to the season prior.
His -1% Fantasy Point Differential (FPD) is another metric spooking fantasy managers this year. A big part of the problem with Ryan has been his lack of touchdown passes in Week 8. But looking ahead to Week 9, I am more than happy to start Ryan in my Scott Fish Bowl roster.
The Atlanta Falcons are welcoming the Denver Broncos to town, and that should bode well for Ryan. The Broncos defense is averaging the 10th most points per week to the QB position (20.39) with the highest D-PAC (17.83) going into Monday Night Football.
They are a somewhat safe 20 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Broncos just allowed rookie Justin Herbert to put up 278 passing yards and three touchdowns for 21.22 fantasy points. Herbert would have had an even better afternoon were it not for two interceptions. Ryan will have no problem bouncing back against this secondary.
Sit ’em – Lamar Jackson
Here is another player that you would probably not have expected to be in a fantasy football start ’em sit ’em article in Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season, but, shockingly, Lamar Jackson has been a QB2, 57% of games played, more often than a top-12 option this season, 43%. His CS of 8.66 ranks 14th, and his +4% FPD is 19th at the position. Like most things in 2020, Jackson just hasn’t been as good as a year ago. And now Jackson has to go up against one of the most stout defenses in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed the second-fewest passing yards and recorded the most interceptions in the NFL. In terms of fantasy, their 3.55 D-PAC is lowest in the NFL, and so is their average points allowed. They are the epitome of a matchup to avoid, and surprisingly fantasy GMs need to keep matchups in mind when it comes to Jackson.
Which running backs should you start/sit in Week 9?
Start ’em – James Robinson
James Robinson is one of my favorite starts of Week 9. Robinson has already been a fantasy workhorse in 2020, sporting the fifth most points at the position, sixth-best points per game, 10th best CS, and a positive 11% FPD. And now, with Gardner Minshew inactive due to his fractured thumb, Robinson is in line for additional work against one of the friendliest defenses for fantasy RBs.
The Houston Texans are allowing the highest yards per carry, 5.2, the second-most total rushing yards, 1,161, third-most average points allowed, 31.29, and fifth-highest D-PAC,14.31. All lights are green for Robinson in Week 9, and he should be a roster priority.
Sit ’em – Jonathan Taylor
As far as rookie campaigns go, Jonathan Taylor’s 2020 is starting off quite promising. But his CS of 4.78 is only 20th among running backs, and we haven’t seen any kind of week winning ceiling from the Colts back. Taylor is barely squeaking out 51% of the total running back opportunities on a team in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing attempts, rushing touchdowns, and as a team, has the lowest yards per carry in the NFL.
In Week 9, Taylor has the extra hurdle of hosting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have both the third-lowest D-PAC and average points allowed to running backs and have allowed only the fifth-fewest rushing yards on the season. Some things don’t change, and sitting a fantasy running back going against the Ravens is one of those constants.
What receivers should you start/sit in fantasy football for Week 9?
Start ’em – Marvin Jones
As I write this, it is half time in the Monday Night Football game, yet Kenny Golladay is already ruled out for Week 9. That means, provided no trades happen, Marvin Jones is going to be Matthew Stafford’s number one receiver as they take on their division rival Minnesota Vikings.
Jones’ 2020 hasn’t been nearly as productive as last year when he was 13th among receivers in CS. But Jones is heating up after catching two red-zone touchdowns this past week and going five for 80 yards the week before.
Now Jones gets the dynamic duo of an increase in opportunity paired with matching up against the Vikings. The Vikings have the sixth-highest D-PAC, averaging 46.23 fantasy points per game to the receiver group, third-most, have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards, third-most yards per reception, and fourth-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL. The Lions will be able to move the ball through the passing game, and Marvin Jones is going to be leading the charge.
Sit ’em – D.J. Moore
When D.J. Moore gets the ball in his hands, he is fun to watch. He stiff-armed a defender into his grave this past week, ala Derrick Henry. However, he didn’t get his first catch until late in the fourth quarter and only saw six targets the whole game against a fantasy-friendly Atlanta Falcon secondary. Moore’s CS has plummeted nearly a full point, and his ranking has dropped from fifth to 20th in 2020.
And now Moore doesn’t get a nearly as accomodating a matchup as they travel to Arrowhead in Week 9, playing against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs boast a 12.36 D-PAC, which ranks 29th, and an average points allowed to the position of only 28.06, which ranks 30th. Despite the Chiefs being a high-powered offense and teams needing to throw to keep up, the Cheifs are still not a fantasy-friendly secondary. Pair that fact with the inexplicable fact that Moore is simply not getting targets, and you can’t start him in Week 9.
Which tight ends should you trust or be cautious of in Week 9?
Start ’em – Darren Fells
Entering Week 9, trusting any pass catcher in Houston when it comes to start ’em sit ’em decisions feels a little like putting a $100 chip on double zero in roulette. But Derren Fells, whose CS ranks 28th, is worth a start in Week 9 for a number of reasons. Fells has been turning it on recently, scoring a touchdown and netting 50+ receiving yards in each of the past two games for the Texans. And in Week 9, they play the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game where they are 4.5-point favorites with a 55.5 over/under, the highest over/under line on the week. But we are not simply expecting a lot of points to be scored and hoping they go the tight end’s way.
The Jaguars have the highest D-PAC versus tight ends and average the 4th highest points allowed. They are the most fantasy kosher matchup to stream tight end starts against in 2020. Getting increased and high-value opportunities? Check. A high scoring game? Check. A soft matchup? Check! Start Darren Fells.
Sit ’em – Dalton Schultz
Andy Dalton or Ben DiNucci, I don’t really care. Since Dak Prescott got injured, Dalton Schultz’s production has cratered. Prior to the change under center, Schultz was averaging 10.23 fantasy points a game and had a CS of 2.42, which would rank 16th. Since then, his average has dropped to 4.53, and over that same time would have a CS of 1.21, which would be 34th going into Monday Night Football. The Cowboys offense as a whole has been a heaping pile of garbage as they haven’t been able to score more than 10 points since Prescott left the field and the tight end position has been all but left for dead.
To make matters worse, the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming to town with their 25th ranked D-PAC score of 2.91. They are only allowing an average of 8.66 PPR (4.94 standard) points per game to the position, which ranks 28th and are heavy, heavy, favorites in the matchup. This is a matchup to avoid with good options available elsewhere at the position. Schultz isn’t a “good” option in this current iteration of the Dallas Cowboys offense.