We only need to look back 12 months to see how March moves can shake up the NFL. Just ask Saquon Barkley.
Free agency was busy this offseason, and there’s no doubt that what we see next winter will be shaped by these recent transactions.
So, who improved their position for 2025, and who took a step back?
Free Agency 2025: Winners
Every team is undefeated right now, so let’s start on a positive note. These teams made splash moves, and based on their current rosters, expectations should be higher in 2025 than when the season ended.
Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams entered March with plenty of uncertainty. At one point, it seemed like they might move on from Matthew Stafford, which would have put Sean McVay at risk of producing his second losing season.
LA’s quarterback is back: the Rams and Matthew Stafford reached agreement today on a restructured deal that keeps him in Los Angeles and quashes any and all trade speculation, per sources.
The first significant off-season QB domino has fallen. pic.twitter.com/wNwydqn49R
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 28, 2025
With Stafford back, their win equity immediately improved — but the Cooper Kupp situation was still a major concern. Heading into free agency, it was clear Kupp had played his last down in L.A. While Puka Nacua is already a top-tier receiver, depth behind him was a major issue.
Then came a huge upgrade.
- PLAYER A: 182 targets, 1,654 receiving yards, 16 touchdowns
- PLAYER B: 75 targets, 632 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns
If you saw those two stat lines, you wouldn’t hesitate to choose Player A, right?
- A: Davante Adams’ 600-route pace over his final five games
- B: Kupp’s 600-route pace over his final five games (includes playoffs)
The gap may not be that wide, but this is still an upgrade — and we’ve seen Stafford thrive when he has a true alpha receiver to target.
Beyond Adams, the Rams made two key but quieter moves. First, they re-signed Jimmy Garoppolo as a backup. If all goes well, he won’t play. But with a 37-year-old starter who has missed 11 games in three seasons, having a reliable No. 2 is crucial. Second, they added Poona Ford to stabilize a defense that ranked 21st in run defense last season.
Ford’s presence could fix a major weakness. In 2024, the Rams allowed the seventh-most yards per first down play. That put their defense on its heels and kept the offense off the field. If Ford helps stop the run, the Rams can control the tempo and let Stafford orchestrate their offense.
These moves position the Rams to build on their 10-win season. Heading into free agency, that didn’t seem likely — but now, they’re a clear NFC contender.
Fantasy Spin: Stafford’s stock improves, but his fantasy ceiling remains limited. In a league where rushing QBs dominate, Stafford’s lack of mobility (158 rushing yards in 57 games with the Rams) keeps him outside the top 15 QBs in redraft leagues. Kyren Williams loses some touchdown equity with Adams in town, though he still belongs in the RB1 conversation.
Nacua remains elite, but his targets could drop slightly. He still projects ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. and CeeDee Lamb, who rely more on volume than elite target quality. Meanwhile, Adams is now a high-end WR2. Think of him like Mike Evans, but with more targets and slightly lower touchdown potential.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders are in win-now mode, looking to capitalize on Jayden Daniels’ rookie contract. Their aggressive offseason shows they’re committed to building a high-powered offense.
The biggest splash was acquiring Deebo Samuel Sr., a move designed to amplify Daniels’ strengths. Washington also retained Zach Ertz, adding continuity to the offense. Protecting Daniels was another priority, leading to the blockbuster addition of Laremy Tunsil.
Beyond the headline moves, Washington also added short-term depth with signings like Bobby Wagner, Will Harris, and Tress Way. This is the right strategy — filling gaps with low-risk, high-upside veterans while leaning on their explosive offense.
Defense remains a work in progress, but Washington is making calculated moves to improve. Retaining one of the best punters in the league (Tress Way) may not grab headlines, but it could swing a key game in January. The Commanders won eight more games in 2024 than in 2023. They’re determined to prove that wasn’t a fluke.
Fantasy Spin: Daniels benefits the most from these moves and is on the verge of a Tier 1 fantasy ranking, thanks to the upgraded weapons around him. Terry McLaurin’s fantasy outlook is tricky — while the overall offensive boost is great, his target share could dip slightly. Meanwhile, Samuel remains a volatile WR2, offering high-upside but unpredictable production.
Free Agency 2025: Losers
Not every team comes out of free agency on top. When a franchise builds a strong roster, it often prices itself out of the market for key players. Based on how these teams entered the offseason, they now face an uphill battle to meet expectations.
Philadelphia Eagles
Seeing the defending champs on this side of the rankings isn’t surprising. Whenever a team wins a Super Bowl, they face tough financial decisions, as players outperform their current contracts. The Eagles wouldn’t trade their championship run for a more financially flexible 2025 — this is simply the reality of an NFL driven by parity.
The issue isn’t that Philadelphia lost key players—it’s the sheer concentration of those losses. Three impact defenders — EDGE Josh Sweat, DT Milton Williams, and CB Darius Slay — departed in free agency. On top of that, the Eagles traded safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the Texans for guard Kenyon Green.
Why did the Eagles maintain such a high level of play in 2024 and ultimately win the Lombardi Trophy? While the offense was obviously a factor, a defensive leap forward played a massive role.
2023 PFSN Insights, Eagles
- Defense+: 69.8
- Offense+: 76.3
2024 PFSN Insights, Eagles
The offense remains intact, and with talent like Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles should still be feared. However, with their defense now depleted, they’ve introduced a lower floor that didn’t exist last season.
Fantasy Spin: The fantasy impact of these moves is minimal. A.J. Dillon replaces Kenneth Gainwell, but by the time August rolls around, rookie Will Shipley could be the better handcuff option for Barkley.
Brown remains a low-end WR1 who will have highs and lows due to the run-heavy nature of this offense. That also caps Smith’s ceiling, making him a week-to-week risk. However, in best ball formats, his role remains solid.
- 2022: 15.0 PPR PPG
- 2023: 14.2 PPR PPG
- 2024: 15.3 PPR PPG
Seattle Seahawks
Moving on from Geno Smith isn’t the issue — he was average at best last season, finishing 15th in PFSN’s QB+ metric, proving to be competent but unspectacular. The real risk comes from who Seattle replaced him with.
The Seahawks are betting big on Sam Darnold, who enters 2025 with one solid season in a loaded Vikings offense under Kevin O’Connell. Before that, Darnold’s career numbers were underwhelming: 63 passing touchdowns, 56 interceptions. While it’s possible he’s a late bloomer, Seattle is assuming his one strong year represents the new normal.
If that were the only move, it would be risky but understandable. But that wasn’t all.
Seattle also lost both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf was traded to the Steelers, while Lockett was released. This leaves Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the clear WR1, but can he thrive without proven support and with a new quarterback?
The defense remains a strength, ranking sixth in Defense+ last season, but this offseason has shifted pressure onto that unit to be even better in 2025. The offense, which ranked 20th last season, could take a step backward rather than forward.
Fantasy Spin: Smith-Njigba’s breakout was as impressive as advertised — only Ja’Marr Chase had a longer streak of games with 70+ receiving yards. However, the NFL is about more than just talent.
Smith-Njigba now faces a higher defensive workload, a completely new supporting cast, and a quarterback change. There’s talk of Jake Bobo taking over Metcalf’s role and Marquez Valdes-Scantling filling in for Lockett, but I’m skeptical.
Seattle’s WR1 is a fantasy WR2. Right now, I have Smith-Njigba ranked WR16, at the top of a tier that includes Rashee Rice, Mike Evans, Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, and Xavier Worthy. As we get more information, I wouldn’t be surprised if he slides closer to WR20.
Remaining Fantasy Football Thoughts
There’s a reason we wait until August or September to draft — there are still a lot of dominos to fall. However, it’s never too early to analyze trends, and some interesting value adjustments have already occurred.
Evan Engram leaving Jacksonville for Denver is a big deal. He moves from one underwhelming hyped prospect (Trevor Lawrence) to one who exceeded expectations in Year 1 (Bo Nix). Engram remains a locked-in TE1, but his real impact is on Nix’s fantasy value. With this added weapon, Nix now has a real shot to enter draft season as a top-12 QB.
The Colts added Daniel Jones, but this doesn’t change my Anthony Richardson ranking (QB16). If Richardson can’t beat out Jones, he wasn’t going to help your fantasy team anyway. Assuming there are no reports of Jones starting, Richardson remains a high-upside late-round target.
At running back, Najee Harris joining the Chargers is a positive move for everyone involved. I like this offensive environment more than what he had in Pittsburgh, and with a similar role, he moves from a fringe RB2 to a solid RB2. Justin Herbert, one of the NFL’s best play-action passers, also benefits. He’s firmly inside my top-10 QBs.
Justin Herbert had 18 pass TD & 0 INT when not under pressure in 2024, per @NextGenStats. He is the first qualified QB to have 0 INT vs no pressure in NGS era (since 2016).
📺: #LACvsHOU – Saturday 1:30pm ET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/xSgANGj0MT— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) January 9, 2025
Jaylen Warren now gets a chance to handle a full workload in Pittsburgh. There’s some risk, but he’s been efficient throughout his career, and with the Steelers’ vertical threats stretching defenses, he should have room to operate. While Harris is ranked higher, Warren is still a fantasy starter.
On the flip side, Javonte Williams replacing Rico Dowdle in Dallas is less exciting. Williams has averaged under 3.8 yards per carry for two straight years, and his career touchdown rate is one score per 55.1 carries. The role and versatility keep him flex-worthy in PPR formats, but his upside is questionable.
Raheem Mostert moving to Las Vegas is intriguing, but he’s 33 years old with only two seasons of 140+ carries. If the Raiders don’t add another back, Mostert will likely trend toward a top-30 ranking, but for now, he’s just outside that range.
Finally, DeAndre Hopkins’ name still carries weight, but his role is shrinking. He failed to command targets in Kansas City last year, and in Baltimore’s low-volume passing offense, it’s hard to see him making a fantasy impact. He’s not a fantasy starter right now, and his presence hurts Zay Flowers and both Ravens tight ends.