It takes a special type of NBA fan to enjoy an Orlando Magic vs Houston Rockets game, and gamblers are those types of special fans. The home team got right during the second half of last week with a pair of wins over the Pelicans – can they carry over that form and blow out a struggling squad?
Orlando Magic vs. Houston Rockets
This, to me, feels like a mismatch on every level and I don’t think I’m alone on that. This time of year, with March Madness just around the corner and the NBA playoffs after that, it’s important to be the early bird and get the worm.
Ahead of tomorrow because I’m not sure this sticks.
Maybe it does.
But a lot to like for the Rockets in this matchup. Bet them mL and put that win amount on this prop.
Don’t have to get ready for Monday if you stay ready pic.twitter.com/pDXDX2mQrP
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) March 10, 2025
It’s not always going to work out, but if you chase value like I do, being among the first to evaluate the markets, especially the more exotic ones, is undoubtedly a long-term plus-money move.
Why do I like Houston tonight? Well, for one, they are on the short list of teams that defend with the intensity of the Magic, but they don’t sacrifice offensive versatility to do it.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?! 😮💨 https://t.co/QH8gjxAc7U pic.twitter.com/4TdLcWLuDx
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) March 9, 2025
The Rockets are turning defense into offense these days, ramping up their average pace by 3.7% over their past 10 games, and the more possessions there are in a Magic game, the more chances their weaknesses get exploited in a big way.
Orlando Success Splits
- Slowest Games: 13-9 record
- All Other Games: 17-26 record
I mentioned Houston being as stingy as anyone on the defensive end of the floor (third in points allowed per possession, 0.001 points more than the Magic, a ranking I expect to flip tonight), with Orlando essentially counting on two players to generate anything positive, that makes them easy pickings for an aggressive Rockets bunch, even without athletic marvel Amen Thompson inactive.
I don’t think it requires a leap of faith to join me on the side of the Rockets’ defense. They can put any offense in a pretzel, and, to be honest, the Magic can be pretzeled by just about anyone.
Houston Success Splits
- Top Defensive Games: 17-1
- All Other Games: 22-24
That lone loss? It was a game where Houston was at a rest disadvantage on the road against a Bucks team that hit the lottery on a good Brook Lopez shooting night. The Rockets lost by a single point.
Of those 17 victories, 10 have come by double figures, and them adding to that total tonight wouldn’t surprise me. From a nerdy standpoint, I like that the Rockets have seen their foul rate gradually decline over their past 20 games, as it hints that the Magic are going to get nothing easy.
Orlando lacks offensive options (do I sound like a broken record yet?), and their primary one in Paolo Banchero is relying more on getting to the line now more than at any point this season:
- March: 0.77 free throw attempts per field goal attempt
- February: 0.32
- January: 0.27
Normally, I’d use a trend like that to preach the stability of his scoring, but in this matchup (and for the next 10 days, with Orlando playing nothing but technically sound defenses), I’m skittish about needing help from the refs to put points on the board.
Pick: Rockets -4 (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Rockets -2.5 in both halves (+320, DraftKings)