Sunday afternoon’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder was a one-sided affair. Now, with just over 24 hours to adjust, both teams have a chance to tweak their approach and show what they’ve learned.
Will we see a repeat performance, or does tonight’s rematch take a different turn as these elite teams exploit new weaknesses?
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Best Bet
Sunday, the Thunder made a statement with a dominant 24-point win, powered by another 40-point outing from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They pulled away in the fourth quarter, flexing their muscles against a Nuggets squad that has steadily gained momentum after a sluggish start to the season.
Status quo.
20/20 court vision 🔎 pic.twitter.com/1Yeq6KptbF
— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) March 9, 2025
This is the best team in the league—and it might not even be close. OKC sits 12 games ahead of any team in the West with just 18 games left in the regular season. At this point, securing the No. 1 seed is a mere formality. That brings us to tonight’s matchup.
After this back-to-back, OKC has just one game over the next four days and only two more zero-rest situations for the remainder of the season. While I’m not suggesting they’ll take their foot off the gas, it’s reasonable to think they might dial back the workload for their star players as the playoffs approach.
Gilgeous-Alexander surpassed the 2,100-minute mark for the season on Sunday and currently ranks fourth in usage rate (second if you exclude the injured LaMelo Ball and Joel Embiid). His usage is up 6% from last season, and he’s thriving in the role—he’s a -600 favorite to win MVP. But given the schedule, could we see him eased into tonight’s game on short rest with a recovery stretch ahead?
I’m nitpicking here, but Denver actually had a solid early defensive approach against him yesterday:
First five minutes: 0 points, 0-of-2 FG, 0-of-2 from three, one turnover.
With Aaron Gordon exiting with a calf injury, we could see Russell Westbrook take on the SGA assignment earlier than usual. Do I think anyone can consistently slow down the likely MVP? No. But Denver ranks seventh in defensive foul rate, still has seeding to play for, and got strong minutes from its backcourt just 24 hours ago:
- Alex Caruso: 8 points in 17 minutes, +11 plus/minus
- Aaron Wiggins: 7 rebounds in 18 minutes, +12 plus/minus
- Cason Wallace: 3 blocks in 17 minutes, +11 plus/minus
Who’s to say Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t get an early breather tonight? He leads the league in first-quarter scoring at 10.0 points per game but now faces a defense that showed flashes of a solid plan yesterday. Factor in the short rest and a grueling recent workload (138 minutes played in the past nine days), and this might be the perfect time to fade him.
This is the first time I’ve bet against Gilgeous-Alexander all season, and I don’t plan to make a habit of it. But if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 10.5 first-quarter points (-140, FanDuel)