Will the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies game be competitive? Only time will tell, but based on the direction of these teams, a play on the projected point total looks like the best value on the board.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies Best Bet
Are the Thunder the NBA title favorites? We have them ranked as the second-best team in the league, but they stand out as a sharp bet to win it all given their projected path. They could flex their muscles in a big way against a Grizzlies team that wants to push the pace.
I like the visiting team in this game because I like them in almost every matchup, but that’s not where my money is tonight. Instead, I’m looking at how OKC performs when they don’t control the tempo.
It makes sense that the Thunder welcome a faster pace—they have more talent than most teams, and an increased possession count gives them more opportunities to prove it. The data backs that up, especially on defense. In their 12 fastest-paced games this season, OKC’s defensive rating has improved by 4.5% compared to their other 49 games.
I trust this Thunder defense more than I trust what Memphis brings to the table. In over 77% of their games this season, OKC has allowed fewer than 1.16 points per possession. That stingy defense gives me confidence in our angles for this game.
OKC has a 100 defensive rating in 64 minutes this season with both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein on the floor.
You just have pick your poison with this Thunder team. No weak links on D. Historic defense just got even better. pic.twitter.com/RzowTX5ozg
— Esfandiar Baraheni (@JustEsBaraheni) February 22, 2025
When Memphis is held under that threshold, even with their tendency to speed up the pace, they average 112.1 points per game. The total points scored in those games averages 228.9.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) is considered week to week. While his defensive presence will be missed, his ability to stretch the floor is crucial for this offense. Without him, Memphis’ spacing suffers, making his absence a net gain for betting the under.
He’s the biggest name on the injury report, but don’t forget about a pair of shooters who are also questionable. Neither John Konchar (knee) nor Santi Aldama (calf) are game-changers, but against an elite defense, every floor spacer matters. If they’re hobbled or out, Memphis’ path to 121 points gets much tougher.
Luke Kennard is the one role player I worry about hurting this bet. He has the potential for extended minutes and is a proven shooter, but he’s struggled lately, hitting just 32.6% of his 3-pointers since the start of February. That leaves Memphis vulnerable to cold stretches.
At the end of the day, I’m betting on the Thunder controlling this game without needing to score 130-plus points to win. Both teams rank in the top 10 in transition defense, so even if they have efficient stretches, those aren’t likely to come early in the shot clock. That’s good enough for me.
I’ve risked 1.2 units on the Grizzlies going under their total, along with a 0.8-unit play on the full game under.
Pick: Under 250.5 points (-110, FanDuel)
Pick: Grizzlies under 120.5 points (-105, FanDuel)
