Both teams in this New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat game are playing at a reasonable level, but when it comes to matching them up against one another, there is a single train of thought that gives me the utmost confidence in betting this contest.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
We sit here today, 72% of the way through the regular season for the Knicks – I think it’s safe to say we know who they are.
- Elite offense
- Average (at best) defense
Teams built in this manner follow a very logical game plan, and it makes all the sense in the world. The Knicks want to maximize the possession count and bet on their offensive firepower eventually giving them the edge over the opposition.
"I don't know what he was doing. I'm just happy he made the shot"
–– Thibs on Jalen Brunson pointing toward him after his go-ahead 3 😆 pic.twitter.com/GsPXDt9O1H
— New York Basketball (@NBA_NewYork) March 1, 2025
More often than not, it works.
They are 39-20 for a reason, and they haven’t lost to anything other than an elite team in over six weeks. I think we assume we know what New York is going to try to do, and that leaves us with what turns out to be a very simple question – how will the Heat do in such a situation?
This season, when Miami’s offensive efficiency is above its established average and its defensive efficiency checks in worse than expected, the Heat is just 5-16, and that is essentially what I’m projecting to happen in this spot.
We are in the business of betting on not what is guaranteed to happen, but what is most likely to happen. We saw the Heat win a track meet with the Pacers on Friday night, and the flamethrowing potential of Tyler Herro (29 points in that game) and Duncan Robinson (20 points on 10 shots) make anything possible. But by picking off positive expected-value plays on a routine basis, we open ourselves to profit in the long term, and I have this spot labeled as much.
I talked about those 21 games where the Heat were better offensively and worse defensively than normal – let’s keep pulling on that thread. Opponents have the third-lowest steal rate against the Knicks this season, and, within this data set, the Heat are 2-12 in their 14 lowest steal-rate games (average point differential in those contests: -6.2).
Well that’s an oddly convenient number!
Miami draws Washington tomorrow, and this is the first of five games in a seven-day stretch – they are likely to take a long-term view. The Heat is a long shot to come out of the Play-In Tournament, but holding onto that No. 7 seed is critical when it comes to earning themselves an invite to the dance.
Maybe we can back the Heat in the coming days, but they are a fade for me tonight. If you told me we got a ceiling effort for the Knicks similar to what we saw from them in late January against a Grizzlies team that is superior to this Heat squad (NYK won all four quarters and were +22 points in transition), I wouldn’t be surprised.
In fact, I’d be treating the wife to dinner tomorrow night.
Pick: Knicks -5.5 for 1.5 units (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Knicks -2.5 in both halves for 0.5 units (+320, DraftKings)
