The first big move of the offseason came right smack in the middle of the NFL Scouting Combine. Deebo Samuel Sr. leaving San Francisco was already a foregone conclusion. The only question was where he’d end up. On March 1, the Washington Commanders sent a fifth round pick to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for the veteran WR. Let’s examine the fantasy football impact of Samuel joining the Commanders.
Fantasy Impact of Deebo Samuel Sr. Being Traded to the Commanders
Behind Jayden Daniels’ heroics, the Commanders went from a four-win team to the NFC Championship Game. On the surface, one would think their team improved massively, but most of it was Daniels. This is a team lacking playmakers outside of its superb young quarterback and WR1, Terry McLaurin.
Samuel will have every opportunity to be to McLaurin what he was to Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco. Of course, there’s still a glaring question that fantasy managers need to answer before 2025 drafts: Is Samuel done?
He sure looked done last year. One of the best WRs after the catch of all time, Samuel was a checkdown machine in 2024. His aDOT was 6.9, the lowest of his career outside of seasons where he missed several games.
More concerning, though, was his yards per route run. At his peak in 2021, Samuel averaged 2.98 YPRR. Obviously, that level of production is unsustainable, but he’s been over 2.0 most of his career. Not last year, though. Samuel averaged a career-worst 1.61 yards per route run.
The Commanders don’t have a clear WR2 opposite McLaurin. Samuel will get every opportunity to be that guy. The fact that the Commanders are assuming all of Samuel’s remaining contract makes it far less likely that they’d be willing to bench or cut Samuel if he continues to struggle.
While I’m certainly not ruling out Samuel rebounding, we’ve seen this story before. He’s 29 years old and showed obvious signs of decline last season. Now, he’s changing teams.
When Brandin Cooks joined the Dallas Cowboys, the fantasy community thought he would bounce back in a better environment. He did not. When Allen Robinson joined the Los Angeles Rams, the fantasy community made him a third-round pick. He couldn’t have been less fantasy relevant.
The same thing happened with Kenny Golladay and the New York Giants — with DeAndre Hopkins and the Kansas City Chiefs.
SEE MORE: San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart | Washington Commanders Depth Chart
The lesson for me is when an aging veteran shows he is declining and changes teams, do not take the bait. While that is my official position in March, we are still months away from the season. I am always open to new information.
We also need to be cognizant of the fact that Samuel missed exactly one game because of a serious bout with pneumonia that resulted in him being hospitalized. There’s certainly a chance that was to blame for his struggles over the majority of the second half of the season. But as of now, I am out on Samuel.
Jayden Daniels
Daniels is the biggest winner of this deal when it comes to fantasy value, but he was already going to be highly thought of. We saw glimpses of his elite ceiling during his Rookie of the Year 2024, and a player like Samuel meaningfully elevates his floor.
His standing at the QB position as a whole doesn’t change much with this deal, but your comfort level in investing serious draft capital in him as a sophomore should spike — spending up on a signal caller isn’t for everyone, but it’s hard to imagine, barring injury, you lose your league because you took the plunge on a talented QB whose team is clearly looking to build around him,
Terry McLaurin
McLaurin still projects as the target leader in town, and if the carry count falls below two per game, Samuel looks more like a fringe asset than a weekly lineup lock that can swing matchups.
Not worried about Deebo taking meaningful volume away from Terry McLaurin.
Doesn't thrive in same areas, and fast-paced WAS should be flush with offensive play volume.
Weeks 1-7: 61.9 plays/game
Weeks 8-17: 68.1 plays/game** would've been NFL high by over 2 plays per game
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) March 2, 2025
As for the surrounding pieces, the adjustments are pretty straight forward. For me, McLaurin’s path to production will look a bit different, but I do expect most of it to level out.
He’s not going to dominate the target share the way he did in 2024 (18 more catches than any other receiver on Washington had targets), but the gravity that a proven player like Samuel provides should improve the value of each individual target.
MORE: Simulate the NFL Offseason With PFSN’s Offseason Manager
The obvious place for regression to be most evident for Washington’s WR1 is the touchdown department. During the first five seasons of his career, he cashed in 37.2% of his end-zone targets, a rate that exploded to 68.8% in 2024 (11-of-16).
Dial that rate back a bit and we are likely talking about a receiver more on the fringe of WR2 status as opposed to the one that often was in the WR1 discussion a season ago (WR14 in PPR PPG).
Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown
At any point did you start Rashod Bateman with the utmost confidence? What about Michael Wilson, or realistically any Buffalo receiver not named Khalil Shakir?
If your league wasn’t deep enough for considerations like that in 2024, there isn’t much of a path to these tertiary options in Washington to matter for you — it’s not easy for a mobile QB to regularly support multiple pass catchers, let alone a clear third banana.
Could there be stretches where one of these two carves out a role that is valuable in a specific spot because of a matchup or an injury-riddled fantasy roster? Sure — Daniels is that talented and we are likely to see plenty of shootouts again in Commanders games. That said, you can read and react; there’s no need to go this direction on draft day.