With a few high-profile games on the docket for Friday, you won’t be alone if you overlook a Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls game. Neither team is labeled as a threat this season and are more looking to future seasons than they are the final six weeks of this regular season.
That said, tickets in these games cash the same as any other, and I like how things set up here.
Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago Bulls Pick
The Raptors roster has talent and upside, but we won’t see it until Brandon Ingram is in the mix and that, along with an ailing hip for Scottie Barnes, is why we are catching points tonight.
The results (eight losses in their past 10 games) make Toronto’s finest a tough sell, but dig a little deeper than the general public is willing to and I think it is actually a good team to back as long as Barnes suits up (cautiously optimistic after he took Wednesday, the second night of a back-to-back, off). In their past four games with their best player active, the Raptors have found some success:
- Q2-Q4 v. CLE: Outscored the Cavaliers 91-90
- Q2-Q4 vs MIA: Outscored the Heat 88-77
- Q2-Q4 vs. PHX: Outscored the Suns 102-80
- Q2-Q4 v. BOS: Outscored the Celtics 77-76
At the very least, that makes the Raptors an interesting live-bet option should they struggle out of the gates.
But do they?
With Nikola Vucevic (calf) unlikely to play and Zach LaVine in Sacramento, I worry about this team’s ability to score. The betting public isn’t as concerned as I am because of what we just saw (117+ points in three straight games), but I can’t help but think that Chicago has simply run hot recently with variance.
- Josh Giddey’s last five games: 17-of-22 from 3 (77.3%, career prior: 31.6%)
- Zach Collins’ last three games: 22.9 points and 15.2 rebounds per 40 mins (career prior: 16.8 and 9.9)
My concerns for the Bulls extend beyond unsustainable production. Toronto is not a good rebounding team and yet, since Jan. 23, it has a higher rebound rate than Chicago and it’s only getting worse (48.2% rebound percentage over that stretch, a mark that sits at 45.6% over their past nine games).
I value your time, so I’m not going to dive into their 119.3 defensive rating over that stretch and the impact that their lack of finishing possessions has on their overall value, and instead showcase Toronto’s potential when they compete on the glass.
Since Jan. 1 in games in which they out-rebound the opposition:
- Jan. 1 vs. BKN: 130-113 win
- Jan. 15 vs. BOS: 110-97 win
- Jan. 23 at ATL: 122-119 win
- Jan. 25 at ATL: 117-94 win
- Jan. 27 vs. NO: 113-104 win
- Feb. 2 vs LAC: 115-108 win
- Feb. 11 at PHI: 106-103 win
- Feb. 21 vs. MIA: 120-111 loss (OT)
- Feb. 23 vs. PHX: 127-109 win
- Feb. 25 vs. BOS: 111-101 loss (covered)
I’ve put a unit on the Raptors outright already and if they are trailing after 12 minutes with Barnes playing, I’ll be reinvesting.
Pick: Raptors moneyline (+110, FanDuel)
Potential Pick, if Barnes is active: Live add following slow Q1
