This Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks game certainly doesn’t come with the intrigue of the host’s last game, but there is money to be made all the same and we have a strong lean when it comes to betting it against the spread.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick
In a league that is often a game of inches, I’m typically willing to take big spreads and, despite recent production, that’s exactly what I’m doing this evening.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I’m well aware that that requires me to buy stock on a team that is stuck in a brutal three-game stretch. And by “brutal three-game stretch,” I mean the worst of all-time – the Hornets have been outscored by 131 points over the past week.
Not a typo.
They haven’t scored more than 92 points or allowed fewer than 128 in back-to-back-to-back games. That’s not exactly the type of profile I woke up planning to invest in, but I think we are getting some overreaction to the recent train wreck. Laying double figures with the Mavericks is something I have no interest in doing.
Let’s start with the road team. LaMelo Ball (ankle) will return to action after sitting out the most recent disaster and in a game that could turn into a track meet, I’m happy to back him.
LAMELO ICES IT FOR CHARLOTTE WITH THIS CLUTCH BUCKET 🧊🧊
Hornets get the win in LA! pic.twitter.com/whJp0ixPR7
— NBA (@NBA) February 20, 2025
Why, you ask? Charlotte is 13-19 outright when playing at-or-above their season pace, a record that may not jump off the screen at you, but considering that they are 1-24 otherwise, it’s clear that they are more comfortable when getting up-and-down, something that Kyrie Irving’s Mavs are happy to help with.
We saw this matchup just over five weeks ago and the currently injured Daniel Gafford had himself a day.
- 31 points (12-15 FG)
- 15 rebounds (eight offensive)
- 7 blocks
- 0 turnovers
He was as good as you could ask for. Even with his production peaking, numbers that obviously won’t be available tonight, Charlotte’s Mark Williams had seven offensive boards of his own.
Did I mention that Charlotte won this contest?
I’m not suggesting that the Hornets outscore Dallas by 33 points from distance again, but variance like that from this version of the Mavericks is to be expected. While running ice cold again is unlikely, covering a big spread like this becomes difficult if any shooting slump occurs.
Case in point? Dallas made four straight triples in less than two minutes on Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Lakers – they shot 32.5% for the other 46 minutes. They are relying more on P.J. Washington (game-time-decision, ankle) than they want to and Naji Marshall has cashed in only 30.1% of his 3PA since New Year’s Day.
We know that, at this point in his career, Klay Thompson is as streaky as they come and even though the current version of Irving is hot, let’s not forget that he was just a 32.4% shooter from deep in January.
With a downward-trending defense (1.2 points allowed per possession over their past 12 games, a rate that is worse than their previous 12, which was worse than their previous 24), I’m thrilled to play the game of variance with the Hornets tonight so long as we don’t get any backward trending health news when it comes to Ball.
Is it crazy to think they win this game outright?
Pick: Hornets +10.5 (-108, FanDuel)
