The argument can be made, and has been, that the NBA regular season is too long. Many argue we don’t need 82 games to properly seed these teams for a compelling postseason, and continuing with this season’s length compromises the end-of-year product.
And then we get spots like this. The Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers game on Feb. 25 will attract as much attention as any regular season matchup as Luka Dončić seeks revenge on the team that traded him away at the deadline.
With the Lakers quickly trending toward Showtime, this is a fun game to handicap. However, it should be noted that with this much public attention on a single event, the betting markets will be efficient.
How can we beat them? I have thoughts.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers, Player Props
Much of the discussion surrounding the Lakers much-anticipated matchup with the Mavericks will revolve around the game’s stars, specifically Dončić.
But those won’t be the only players impacting the final score. Let’s dive into a pair of secondary pieces in this game that should have your attention.
Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura with three straight triples 🔥🎌🔥🎌🔥 pic.twitter.com/GLPGyusABN
— LakeShow Highlights (@LSH_lakeshow) February 23, 2025
Why should they have your attention? Two reasons – the trends point in a strong direction and their markets aren’t going to be hammered into place the way the stars’ will. Everyone will flock to bet the big names on the favorite in a National TV game, but bring up Rui Hachimura at the water cooler today and you’re going to get some very strange looks.
Shouldn’t matter.
We are here to make money and looking at off-the-board options can be a means to that end (anyone else like Appalachian State laying 2.5 points at Georgia Southern tonight??).
Hachimura is getting some attention for his recent play, but it’s not enough given how projectable I believe it to be. As the fourth option in this offense, he’s in a great position to get whatever he wants and this retooled unit is happy to give that to him.
In Los Angeles’ two fully unleashed-Dončić games, every one of Hachimura’s 17 three-point attempts have come with at least four feet of separation from the nearest defender.
Yes, I said 17.
And yes, I said all of them.
The pride of Gonzaga has attempted one triple every 4.4 minutes of playing time in this two game window, a drastic spike from the 8.3 he has posted in all other games. The Lakers put opponents into an impossible math puzzle and leaving Hachimura open is the logical thing to “give up” as they try to limit the damage elsewhere.
Until it’s not logical.
Top Wide Open 3P% This Season (6+ feet of separation), Among Qualifiers
- Luke Kennard: 55.3% (NBA 3P% leader)
- Nikola Jokic: 53.3% (MVP candidate)
- Ty Jerome: 52.7% (career-year from 3)
- Donovan Mitchell: 52.2% (career-year from 3)
- Malik Beasley: 50.3% (3-point specialist)
- Hachimura: 48.7% (career-high 1.7 3PM)
Not a bad list and with the consistency he’s displayed all season long, I don’t see him falling off of it any time soon. The next month this season in which he converts under 39% of his triples will be the first and he’s shot over 50% from the field in three straight months. Unless he makes 47 consecutive three’s, no rational defense is going to identify him as a primary threat when the alternative options are a Dončić drive, James dunks, or Reaves free throws – Hachimura isn’t coming off the floor these days and should be good for 6-9 attempts from deep tonight.
I’ll take my chances with him and moving the goalposts on FanDuel is very much in play.
A more established marksman in this game is Klay Thompson, but he’s in a different spot than Hachimura on many fronts. Not only is there the age curve thing, there’s the Dončić thing.
Number 77 last played a game as a Maverick on Christmas Day and the splits for Thompson speak for themselves.
Up To Christmas
- 82.6% of his 3PA were uncontested
- 88.9% of his 3PM were uncontested
Post Christmas
- 72.8% of his 3PA have been uncontested
- 70.8% of his 3PM have been uncontested
These teams met in January and the Mavs were without LDončić or Kyrie Irving. The door was open for Thompson to walk into as much usage as he could handle – he finished sixth on the team in field goal attempts. I’m not suggesting that he won’t get a few looks due to the creativity of Irving and his quick release, but asking him to beat a Lakers team that is well aware of what he can do (5+ 3PM in three of four meetings last season) is difficult. Add in the fact that Dallas is going to need him moving forward (after tonight, they have a seven-games-in-12-days stretch) and is at risk of being blown out … I can’t back him.
If you’ve ready all four prop pieces, you’ll notice a theme of unders. To the surprise of no one, the total for this game is moving up (228 open) and is naturally a place I will be looking as we get closer to tip, understanding that the public money could well get us another point or two of value.
Los Angeles held Denver to 100 points in their last game, a contest in which Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray combined to shoot 10-of-18 from three, Christian Braun didn’t commit a turnover in 29 minutes, and Russell Westbrook did Russell Westbrook things with three offensive boards (and even three made triples). Despite all of those things, the second most efficient offense in the NBA failed to clear 23 points in both the second and fourth quarters. The offensive talent steals the headlines and leads highlight shows, but this Lakers team has more teeth on the defensive end than they are given credit for and against a Dallas offense that relies on a singular player to create, that profiles as a problem.
Pick: Rui Hachimura over 1.5 3PM (-132, FanDuel) and/or 3+ 3PM (+250, FanDuel)
Pick: Klay Thompson under 3.5 3PM (-160, DraftKings) or under 2.5 3PM (+130, FanDuel)
Pick: Under 231 points
