The argument could very well be made that the NBA regular season is too long. That we don’t need 82 games to properly seed these teams for a compelling postseason, and that in continuing with this season length, we compromise the end-of-year product.
And then we get spots like this. Tonight’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers game is going to attract as much attention as any this regular season as Luka Dončić seeks revenge on the team that traded him away at the deadline.
With the Lakers quickly trending toward Show Time, this is a fun game to handicap, but it should be noted that with this much public attention on a single event, the betting markets are going to be efficient.
How can we beat them? I have thoughts!
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers, Luka Dončić Angle
Dončić is the coming attraction tonight, and it’s not close. That’s the obvious storyline, the low-hanging fruit that the national media (and betting public) will glom onto.
My wife, who hates basketball because of the time it requires of me, asked me this morning about the game. Not because she had any interest in staying up past her bedtime to watch the spectacle but because she knew her kids would come in with hot takes, and she didn’t want to miss out on the news cycle.
She’s the best. Everyone should be more like her. But this isn’t about my wife; this is about the flooding of the market on everything Dončić related.
The betting public gets sharper every year, but there are always going to be pockets of immaturity, and the closer we get to tipoff, the more I expect that to be the case.
"For them to maximize their team, the ball's got to be in Luka's hands."@WindhorstESPN on why Luka Doncic needs to be running the offense for the Lakers ✍️ pic.twitter.com/3QnN0jKefq
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) February 24, 2025
Does that mean you blindly take every “under” on Dončić? Of course not — he’s a great player in great form with an axe to grind, I’m not a crazy person.
All I’m saying is that you approach the board objectively. There will be content posted all over your social feeds about laddering Dončić up in every way imaginable, that he could have a historic game, and that you could cash in by simply understanding the human nature part of all of this.
It could happen. But it could happen any night for a player like this.
Four straight losses, a run in which he shot 27.8% from 3. Remember that?
Of course, you don’t. That was the lead-in form Dončić had last season entering a Jan. 26 game against the Atlanta Hawks — a contest in which he dropped 73 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists while making 25 of 33 shots (8 of 13 from distance).
That’s the point. Great players have great games, but it’s not simply because they’re on fire or because they have some level of increased motivation. It’s because they are great.
Dončić enters this game looking good, but the more comfortable he’s gotten, the less time he’s spending on the perimeter. And for the record, I think this is the optimal way for this offense to function.
- First two Lakers games: 15 of 27 shots were 3s
- Eight assists handed out
- Last two Lakers games: 18 of 40 shots were 3s
- 15 assists handed out
LeBron James suggested that he is a receiver to Dončić’s quarterback in this offense, and those data points suggest as much. The Mavericks have the third-lowest opponent 3-point rate this season and are uniquely aware of how Dončić getting rolling from distance can unravel an entire defense.
Even the triples Dončić has launched while wearing purple and gold have been of less quality, almost like he’s hoping for the big moment. While with Los Angeles, 15.2% of his 3s have been heavily contested, a rate that is a touch higher than his time with Dallas this season (13.7%).
Dončić could have a great game, which is why I’m not taking all of his unders despite my belief that they are, to a degree, inflated. That said, a great game doesn’t have to include marksmanship from distance.
Dončić might just systematically destroy the will of his former employer from the inside out (keep reading this series if you want to see who I think is in a position to punish Dallas from deep more than Dončić).
Pick: Luka Dončić under 3.5 3PM (+114, DraftKings)
