The argument can be made, and has been, that the NBA regular season is too long. Many argue we don’t need 82 games to properly seed these teams for a compelling postseason, and continuing with this season’s length compromises the end-of-year product.
And then we get spots like this. The Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers game on Feb. 25 will attract as much attention as any regular season matchup as Luka Dončić seeks revenge on the team that traded him away at the deadline.
With the Lakers quickly trending toward Showtime, this is a fun game to handicap. However, it should be noted that with this much public attention on a single event, the betting markets will be efficient.
How can we beat them? I have thoughts.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers, Austin Reaves Angle
Dončić has impressed lately, but did we expect anything different from a generational talent?
On the other hand, Austin Reaves has improved his stock significantly in short order. We saw flashes of brilliance from the 26-year-old prior to this team, but 55 points and 14 assists over a two-game stretch early in the Dončić era was not on my bingo card.
Austin Reaves – underrated bag pic.twitter.com/HTl2BpA3ll
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) February 20, 2025
It’s now accepted that he is the third option in this offense and might well be part of a “Big Three” sooner than later. The versatility of Dončić makes that possible and Reaves’ development might be what is most responsible for this team truly being a threat to win the conference come June, but we aren’t worried about that just yet.
For now, we are just trying to enjoy this exciting game and cash a prop ticket in the process. The betting markets are clearly aware Reaves’ offensive output and with Dallas just giving up 126 points to the Warriors (60.3% shooting from inside the arc), his projections are understandably lofty.
As Reaves’ value increases in some regards, however, it declines in others. He’s become so valuable on the offensive end that there is no need to ask him to play outside of where he is comfortable.
What do I mean by that? Reaves is plenty capable of rebounding, but that’s not his role on this roster. Dončić and LeBron James are the better rebounders and the better facilitators – Reaves is going to be asked to be aggressive with the ball in his hands, easily his greatest strength. In Dončić’s two most recent games, Reaves has posted rebound rates of 6.9% and 3.6%, two rates that I believe likely to sustain (28 games prior to these two contests: 8.1%).
In fact, I’d argue that, while low, they are a little deceiving. He had two quick uncontested boards in 39 seconds against Denver on Saturday – in his other 59 minutes and 35 seconds of action across these two games, he’s totaled just four rebounds.
But there’s so much more to consider.
In these two games that I keep referencing 63.6% of Reaves’ shots have been triples (season otherwise: 50.7%). He’s hanging out on the perimeter and I think that’s likely to be the case against the Mavs given that Dallas’ guards aren’t exceptionally aggressive on the glass.
The weird part? The Maverick guards are oddly effective when they do decide to seek out an extra possession (Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson are both having career seasons in offensive rebound percentage).
One last thing before I let the jury rest. The Mavericks have been more vulnerable in transition over the past week than they had been prior and that’s just another excuse for Reaves to leak out instead of get under the rim and get cheap rebounds. This season, he’s scoring on 54.2% of his transition opportunities, a rate that ranks in the same range as James, Jayson Tatum, and Paolo Banchero.
Dallas has said they want to win with defense and their roster construction suggests that is indeed the plan, but they are banged up right now and have been outrebounded for the season (last three games: 46.3% rebound rate). The Lakers appear content to let Reaves cook on the offensive end while allowing their elite playmakers to control possessions.
Look for Reaves to leave his fingerprints all over this game, just not on the backboards.
Pick: Austin Reaves under 3.5 rebounds (+128, FanDuel) and/or under 4.5 rebounds (-160, DraftKings)
