This Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz game might not stick out as appointment viewing as you look at this slate (combined record: 38-75). However, with one team moving in a very positive direction, I think there’s a pretty clear path to profit out in Utah this evening.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz Best Bet
After a 13-28 start to the season, Portland has won 11 of 16 games. That’s an impressive run for a young team no matter who the success has come against, but those five defeats came against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, the rested Los Angeles Lakers, and the Denver Nuggets twice.
For five weeks, we’ve seen the Blazers handle their business against non-elite teams at a high level, and last I checked, the Jazz certainly fall into that bucket.
In 8 February games, Scoot Henderson has played 30 minutes or less each time, averaging 24.7 mpg
Despite that, he averages 11.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.3 steals on 44/38/88 shooting
AND he’s a team high +80 in February, with 2nd at +45
pic.twitter.com/sJDQZ6OfJg— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) February 23, 2025
For the season, Portland ranks 19th in rebound rate, an underwhelming number given its roster build, but not one that is reflective of the current direction. They’ve pulled down 52.1% of misses over their past 16 games (they’ve won the rebound battle in 11 of their past 14), a trend that fills me with optimism in this spot against a Utah team that … struggles when they can’t dominate the glass.
Jazz Splits
- Top-22 Rebound Rate Games: 11 wins and 11 losses
- All Other Games: 3 wins and 31 losses
The last time we saw Utah was Saturday night when, on the second night of a back-to-back, they upset a Houston Rockets team that we all like. They scored 27+ points in all four quarters against one of the better defenses in the NBA, shot 62.1% from inside the arc, and got a “see what is possible” game from Keyonte George (30 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and zero turnovers in 29 minutes off the bench).
Everything went right, and every team in the NBA has the potential. Less than half the teams, however, can play at a high level for the majority of their games, and bad teams, like Utah, find a way to regress in a major way in short order.
They’ve won consecutive games three times over the past 380 days.
Let that marinate for 15 seconds.
That’s hard to do in a league where night-to-night effort from the opposition isn’t a given.
OK, have you digested that nugget yet?
Try this one.
The Kansas City Chiefs have both won and lost a Super Bowl since the last time Utah won consecutive games and both were played at home.
Yikes.
That’s what they are trying to accomplish tonight, against a young team that is moving in the right direction. I’ll lay the number and play this game live should the Blazers struggle out of the gate (-2.8 points per game in first quarters this season, third-worst).
Pick: Trail Blazers -3.5 (-112, FanDuel)
