We saw this Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Clippers matchup during the final half of the regular season as part of a West Coast swing for Indiana. And while that game happened, I’m largely ignoring the result and recommend you do the same.
Clippers vs. Pacers Best Bets
The Pacers won that game 119-112, but it doesn’t profile as a very predictive affair. In that game, Myles Turner left after six minutes (concussion protocol), and Los Angeles struggled to adjust to a new-look lineup that came with all sorts of goofy usage patterns/results.
- Pascal Siakam (1-10 from 3 in his first three February games) transformed into Ray Allen (5-6 on 3s).
- Bennedict Mathurin (12 free-throw attempts in his five games prior, 122 minutes) was all-of-a-sudden Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (12 FTA in 28 minutes).
- Thomas Bryant (first 32 games: 105 rebounds and 2.2 3-pointers made per 40 minutes) is new-school Dwight Howard (10 rebounds and 2 3PM in 28 minutes).
Yes, all of those things happened, and yes, they all count in the official record books. But do you understand why I’m not too worried about Indiana having success tonight in the same way they did on that day?
Instead, I want to take a more macro approach. This season, the Pacers have relied on an elite assist-to-turnover rate, a metric I weigh heavily (just wait for the March Madness content overload three weeks from today!), but one that is something of a dual-edged sword.
Excelling in this department is great, but it does carry some risk. Certain defenses excel at creating turnovers and/or preventing assists, and when an offense that relies on protecting the ball like Indiana does runs into such an opponent, they struggle in a big way.
This year, the Pacers have lost 10 of their 11 worst assist-to-turnover games, and that lone win came against a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers team that misfired on 24 of 34 triples.
They are losing that game every time.
In contrast, Indiana is 19-6 in their top 25 assist-to-turnover games, a data set that includes that awfully odd first meeting.
Did I mention that the Feb. 6 matchup means nothing to me? Yeah? Well, did I mention that the Clippers held a 20-point advantage after 12 minutes?
James Harden's catch-&-shoot 3 for 27k career PTS! https://t.co/PJiyGhJqv0 pic.twitter.com/6pjCOOqbC3
— NBA (@NBA) February 21, 2025
Los Angeles is the fourth-best defense when it comes to opponent assist-to-turnover ratio thus far, and I think they have as good a shot, with a fully functional Kawhi Leonard at their disposal, to tie this Pacers offense in knots.
OK, so the hard part is done. We’ve evaluated the game from a macro point of view and determined that we like the road team. Or at least I do. If you don’t, you probably tuned out 300 words ago.
Now what?
Win/Loss Splits for Pacers Stars
- Pascal Siakam: 11.1% fewer points per game in losses, 30.7% of field-goal attempts are 3s (wins: 25.9%)
- Clippers: eighth-lowest opponent 3-point percentage
- Tyrese Haliburton: Assist rate falls from 13.4% to 11.3%
- Clippers: fourth-best transition defense
- Haliburton: Assist-to-pass rate down from 15.5% last year to 11.4%
I’m playing the Clippers against the spread (+3.5 at DraftKings) for 1.25 units and spending half of that on the same game parlay of these three bets combined. That’s how I’m playing it. You can do it however you’d like, and hopefully, there is no wrong answer!
My thought process in doing it my way is that I want to be rewarded with a juicy ticket should I tell the right story. But even if the game doesn’t go perfectly to my script, nailing the winner would at least get me out of here with a profit.
Pick: Clippers moneyline (+136 everywhere)
Pick: Pascal Siakam under 21.5 points (-115, DraftKings)
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton under 8.5 assists (-110, DraftKings)
