Everything about the NFL Draft is an inexact science. That includes the NFL Scouting Combine, where medicals and other non-public elements tend to affect prospect status far more than the on-field drills.
Still, we have a robust enough sample of Combine data now to pinpoint which drills are most important for each position group, as well as a couple key factors to help identify likely hits in the draft. Nothing is perfect in the world of scouting, but here are a few things to watch for on the field in Indianapolis this week.
The Most Important Drills By Position
When adjusting for average weight at a player’s designated position, the following drills were most statistically significant as indicators for playing three or more NFL seasons (which is widely held as the average career length).
Note that this is only looking at players who entered the league from 2000 through 2022, as players drafted from 2023 onwards obviously haven’t had the chance to play three seasons yet.
40-Yard Dash: Defensive Backs And Running Backs
Speed is a signature trait of nearly any elite defensive back. As a result, it’s no surprise to see the weight-adjusted 40-yard dash time hold the greatest significance to a DB having a meaningful pro career.
Since 2000, 350 defensive backs have beat the weight-adjusted position average in the 40-yard dash. Among that group, 261 (74.6%) went on to play at least three seasons. Simply put, there was roughly a three-in-four “hit rate” on DBs having a meaningful NFL career length when they were faster than average.
Of course, running slower than average doesn’t disqualify a DB from having a career. Among the group of players to run slower than average, 57% were still able to last in the league at least three seasons. But that’s a far lower hit rate, and the average career length has been shorter for slower DBs as well. To summarize:
- DBs With Above-Average 40 Time
74.6% played 3+ seasons, 74.3 average career games played - DBs With Below-Average 40 Time
57.0% played 3+ seasons, 51.9 average career games played
The story is similar for running backs. Out of 289 running backs who beat the weight-adjusted average time in the 40, 189 of those (65.4%) went on to have at least three-year careers. That’s not nearly as high a hit rate as defensive backs, but it does show that plodding power backs have a tougher time making the league (in part because they typically don’t hold as much special teams value as well).
It’s also worth noting that the separation is less because running backs tend to have shorter careers than defensive backs. As shown below, faster-than-average RBs have nearly the same average career games played as slower-than-average DBs.
- RBs With Above-Average 40 Time
65.4% played 3+ seasons, 56.4 average career games played - RBs With Below-Average 40 Time
41.8% played 3+ seasons, 38.4 average career games played
Vertical Jump: Edge Rushers, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
The vertical jump measures explosiveness, so it’s unsurprising to see a strong correlation between the vert and career length of edge rushers. That position relies on first-step explosiveness more than any other. Among edge rushers to play at least three NFL seasons, 72.8% beat the position average on the vertical jump.
However, the drill also holds significance for wide receivers and tight ends. Wide receivers who beat their position average in the vert played nearly 18 more career games on average than below-average vert jumpers. Similarly, above-average tight ends played about 11 more career games on average.
As with edge rushers, wide receivers and tight ends who beat their position average in the vertical jump had a strong chance of sticking. 64.44% of TEs who finished with above-average weight-adjusted vertical jumps played at least three seasons, while 55.6% of WRs did so as well.
It may be surprising to see the vertical jump as the drill most strongly associated with wide receiver success. The position is more known for valuing speed and agility, with the 3-cone drill emerging as a popular watch for wide receivers.
However, beating the weight-adjusted average in the 3-cone didn’t have as strong of an effect. Only 52% of wide receivers who performed better than average in the 3-cone drill went on to play at least three seasons. As much as certain systems may value quickness, those types of receivers have historically been little better than a 50-50 coin flip to stick in the league.
Broad Jump: Offensive Linemen
Similar to the vertical jump, the broad jump measures explosiveness, but with more of an emphasis on lower-body strength. It’s traditionally been an important drill for offensive linemen who need to demonstrate both first-step quickness off the snap and the leg strength to anchor against power.
As such, the broad jump was the most statistically significant drill for both offensive tackles and guards. For what it’s worth, no drill was considered significant for centers, but that could be due to a small sample size (only about seven players a year are labeled as centers in TruMedia’s database).
However, unlike with the other positions covered, performing at an above-average level in the broad jump didn’t necessarily lead to a huge ratio of players to have long careers. 54.4% of tackles who were above-average performers in the broad jump played at least three seasons, while only 46.9% of guards had at least three-year careers after beating their position’s broad jump average.
This doesn’t mean that the on-field drills are meaningless for offensive linemen, but physical traits like arm length had a higher correlation with career games played than even the most significant drill.
What About Quarterbacks?
Notably absent from this list are quarterbacks. There are a few reasons why no single drill is directly tied to quarterback success:
1) Most don’t participate in the majority of drills. Of the 269 quarterbacks to participate at the Combine between 2000-22, only one – Levi Brown, picked by the Buffalo Bills in the 7th round of the 2010 Draft – participated in every on-field drill. That leads to a lot of sample size concerns.
2) QBs are a unique position to evaluate for physical traits. While cornerbacks and receivers can’t really succeed without speed and linemen can’t succeed without strength, there are a wider range of physical profiles that lead to long QB careers. As a result, the correlation between games played and most drills was almost 0.
3) Unlike most positions, quarterbacks usually play the entire game or none of it at all. Therefore, it’s harder to use games or seasons played as a measure for success, since a career backup may appear in as many games as a two-year starter. To give a concrete example, C.J. Stroud wasn’t part of this dataset as a 2023 draftee, but has already played more career games (32) than Mason Rudolph (29), who has been in the NFL since 2019.
Likeliest Hits: Above-Average Players In 40-Yard Dash And 3-Cone Drill
When adjusting the 40 and 3-cone times for weight, a select few players managed to perform at above-average levels in both categories. Out of 3,546 players to test in both drills since 2000, only 529 players (about 15%) beat their position averages in both drills when adjusting for weight.
Out of those 529 players, 338 (63.9%) played at least three NFL seasons and cleared the bar for an average NFL career. The most common position groups to hit that criteria were defensive backs (201) and wide receivers (159). While understanding that DBs and WRs often want to demonstrate their speed and agility and are likelier to test in both drills, those two groups together accounted for nearly 70% of the above-average performers in both drills.
To give a specific example, LaDainian Tomlinson weighed in at 215 pounds and ran a 4.46 time in the 40-yard dash and 6.84 time in the 3-cone drill at the 2001 Combine. Since 2000, the average running back has checked in at:
- Weight: 216.9 pounds
- 40-yard Dash: 4.55 seconds
- 3-Cone Drill: 7.08 seconds
Tomlinson roughly weighed as much as the average running back at the Combine since 2000, but beat the average 40-time by 2% and the average 3-cone time by 5%.
That doesn’t mean that a prospect who beats his positional averages at this year’s Combine will become a Hall of Famer, but it does likely mean they’ll have a legitimate NFL career. And while many of the 529 players were freakish athletes taken in the first two rounds, mid-to-late round gems like Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, David Johnson and Mike Wallace went on to have lengthy and productive careers.
It won’t be a surprise if top picks like Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter hit these thresholds should they go through all the Combine testing. But some unheralded Day 3 or undrafted prospects will stand out as well, and history suggests there’s better than a two-in-three chance they become legitimate NFL contributors.
