At various points in the 2024-2025 season, both the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves have looked like serious threats in the Western Conference. But when matching up against one another, despite a contrary result earlier this month, one team holds a significant statistical edge.
The Rockets and Timberwolves matchup tonight. Here is who holds the advantage.
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Best Bets
I’m a big fan of the “numbers never lie” concept. Not because every number tells the truth but because every number I provide to you will support my argument and, thus, is truthful as far as I’m concerned.
I kid, of course, but numbers can be bent in any direction you want them, and in this instance, I’m taking the regression approach.
These two teams met earlier this month, and Minnesota won by 13 points at home. Boxscore watchers will see that result and maybe wonder about this spread, but if you tune into PFSN content, you’re smarter than that.
They got lucky.
OK, so “lucky” might be a bit dramatic, but I’m not at all reading into that result. Houston won three of four quarters in that game. Houston had more assists and fewer turnovers. Houston attempted more free throws. They simply fell apart for a seven-minute run (outscored 27-11), and it cost them a game that was their eighth in eight cities in 13 just days.
I’m not worried.
.@jabarismithjr is set to return for tomorrow’s game against the Timberwolves! 👏@MemorialHermann | #Liftoff pic.twitter.com/F30CPKgyZK
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) February 20, 2025
I’m perfectly fine with betting against the vaunted Mike Conley/Jaylen Clark duo going off for 33 points on 11-of-17 shooting (eight-of-10 on triples) with just one turnover in their 48 minutes of action. I’m perfectly fine with betting on a profile that has built up over 55 games as opposed to what we saw in a singular data point two and a half weeks ago in a fatigued spot.
The Rockets are the third-best defense and top rebounding team in the NBA, two traits that put them in a great position to avenge that loss. The Timberwolves have lost nine of 11 contests this season when being out-rebounded AND being held below their season average in points per possession, something that I fully expect to come into play tonight.
It sounds as if the groin injury that Anthony Edwards nursed at the All-Star Break is nothing, but it’s at least something to be aware of given that this is the first of three games in four days. They also play three back-to-backs over the next two weeks.
I’m not fully fading Edwards, but I do think there is a way to smartly bet against him, understanding that an injury flare-up can help us, but isn’t needed. He was ultra-aggressive in that recent meeting (25 field goal attempts and 15 free throw attempts) and while he still managed to dish out six dimes, history suggests that shot volume like that is rarely accompanied by a high assist total for Ant-Man. You already know where I’m going for this game (Rockets cover), so why not fully lean into that?
Edwards this season:
- Losses: 4.9 assists per 48 minutes
- Wins: 6.7 assists per 48 minutes
Same game parlays are about telling a story and with each of Houston’s past five games being decided by 7+ points, I’m not against the idea of a +224 SGP (DraftKings) that has them covering 6.5 points and Edwards failing to repeat his six assists.
Pick: Rockets -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Anthony Edwards under 5.5 assists and under 4.5 assists
