The Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors made big moves at the trade deadline. Both teams will open the second half of the regular season on Feb. 21.
This Kings vs. Warriors contest allows us to embrace the unknown and beat the books with some creativity in adjusting our projects for limited sample sizes with these new-look offenses.
Kings vs. Warriors Best Bets
Entering the season, we thought we knew who these teams were. Sacramento was an uptempo team trying to outscore its opponent through sheer volume of attempts, funneling all of its usage through a dynamic point guard and a versatile center. The Warriors, meanwhile, would go only as far as Stephen Curry’s shooting stroke would take them.
Things have changed.
De’Aaron Fox is now in San Antonio trying to help the Spurs adjust to life without Victor Wembanyama for the rest of this season, and Jimmy Butler went to Golden State at the trade deadline as this franchise tries to extend its championship window.
How long the Butler honeymoon lasts with the Warriors is anyone’s guess, but for now, I’m in – and maybe not for the reason you think. He’s a pro’s pro and capable of taking pressure off of Curry, but how about the impact he has had on the other guard wearing blue and gold these days?
Brandin Podziemski’s stats across 11 games as a starter this season:
13.8 PPG
6.5 RPG
4.6 APG
1.1 SPG
0.5 BPG
1.5 3PM
41.0 FG%
70.3 FT%
1.7 TOHe’s ranked 198th in category leagues this year #FantasyBasketball https://t.co/iNubPMhvKK
— Kayla Fonte (@Kayla_Fonte) February 14, 2025
Since the trade was made, the Dubs are +58 with Brandin Podziemski on the court and -20 without him.
We are dealing with a small sample size, but it’s encouraging for Podziemski. He is a player who showed the potential to take on more usage than he was being trusted with in the first half of the 2024-2025 season. It would appear Butler’s presence may have unlocked that.
His shot-per-minute rate is up a tick (+4.6%), but what’s more interesting is how he is being used. In his eight games back from a G-League stint, and pre-Butler, 62.5% of his shots were coming from distance, something that is a part of Golden State’s offense, but a little duplicative of what Curry does and a poor man’s version of it.
It was possible that he might continue to struggle if a midrange artist like Butler was in the fold, but that hasn’t been the case yet – his 3-point rate is down to 40.7% since the trade.
He’s being more aggressive and I think that is a role to invest in tonight. The gravity of Curry alone creates lanes that aren’t available in other offenses and with the Kings owning the second-worst pick-and-roll defense against ball handlers, Golden State could opt to get a little creative with Podziemski.
Even if that doesn’t happen, this is a porous Sacramento defense and Podziemski has earned enough playing time to make me bullish on his props. With him on the court since the Butler trade, Golden State is allowing just 0.94 points per possession, a drastic improvement from the 1.09 rate in those eight games prior.
That could be fluky, but it might be something. He may not be a defensive force, but with Draymond Green and Butler handling the top opposing options, he’s in a sport where he can jump passing lanes without fear, a level of aggression that has paid off up to this point.
Speaking of Green, what he brings to this team is incredible – from defensive tenacity to basketball IQ to confidence that borders on cockiness. On the offensive end, he serves many purposes, but scoring isn’t one of them. His limited role is obvious and has been for years, but with the addition of Butler, his scoring scope has tightened even further.
Post-trade, just 29.6% of his FGA has tripled (pre-trade: 52.1%). This is a good move for the Warriors as these weren’t exactly high-quality looks in the first place, and it crushes what little upside the veteran had in scoring markets.
This season, he’s reached double figures just once in 16 games in which he has failed to knock down a triple, and with a 2P% that is trending in the wrong direction (52.1% this season, down from 55.1% a season ago and 61.2% in 2023), the path to him impacting a game via buckets just isn’t there.
It’s not 100% correlated, but I do think backing Podziemski and fading Green are similar bets and you can pair them up in an single-game parlay (SGP) if you so choose without the books charging you much in the way of connected juice.
Plus, Sacramento’s pace is, not surprisingly, down 2.7% in its games post-Fox trade, putting it in a tough spot to score in bunches tonight — or any night for that matter.
Pick: Kings under 115.5 points (-115, DraftKings)
Pick: Brandin Podziemski over 16.5 points-plus-assists (+100, FanDuel)
Pick: Draymond Green under 9.5 points (+100, DraftKings)
