NFL free agency is an inexact science. Every year, we see some winter moves shift the power balance across the league, but there are also plenty of changes that have little impact or, even worse, result in a team trending in the wrong direction.
Things could change as the draft takes place and player movement picks up, but as we stand here today, there are a handful of winners and losers to put under the microscope.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Liam Coen has been involved on the offensive side of the ball at either the collegiate or professional level since 2010 and the Jaguars identified him as the Head Coach to break them out of an underwhelming run that has seen them average just 5.3 wins per regular season over the past seven years.
In this offensive driven league, this profiles as a tremendous hire. Coen was the architect behind a much improved Buccaneers offense in 2024, a unit that saw Baker Mayfield (4,500 passing yards and 41 TD tosses) grade out as our sixth best QB in the NFL (just behind Joe Burrow/Jalen Hurts and ahead of Patrick Mahomes/Jayden Daniels).
One key development to Mayfield’s sensational year was his ability to avoid pressure. In 2023, Mayfield was pressured on 34% of his dropbacks and had the fifth-deepest aDOT (8.6 air yards). His tendency to hunt for big plays led to some explosive games and caused him to invite more pressure.
In 2024, Mayfield was pressured on 24% of his dropbacks, the third-lowest rate across the league. His willingness to get the ball out of his hands earlier is a big part of that – his aDOT dropped from the fifth-deepest to the seventh-shortest (6.9 air yards).
Could Lawrence be the next Mayfield? Lawrence has seen his QB+ grade decline in consecutive seasons (79.5 in 2022, 67.1 in 2023, and 64.5 in 2024), failing to succeed with an increased level of aggression.
- 2022: 7.4 air yards per throw
- 2023: 8.2 air yards per throw
- 2024: 9.4 air yards per throw
What helped Mayfield succeed in 2024? In Coen’s system, his aDOT (average depth of throw) was dialed back by 18.6% and he thrived on those short passes (under 10 air yards):
- Short pass passer rating: 2nd (112.8, behind only Lamar Jackson)
- Short pass completion percentage: 2nd (79.5%, behind only Tua Tagovailoa)
- Short pass TD%: 2nd (6.8%, behind only Jackson)
Those short passes have to go somewhere and while the futures of Evan Engram and Christian Kirk are up in the air, this passing game has a true difference maker entering Year 2.
Brian Thomas Jr.
SlantStretch to reset LOS – width and depth, close the space
Double at the top to move cover defender
Tempo to Twitch"Stay grounded"
Maintain stride through reception = maximize YAC pic.twitter.com/9qfd5gPIT0— Mike Vannucci (@WRCoachVannucci) January 22, 2025
Since 2012, there have been seven instances in which a rookie receiver saw at least 90 targets while averaging at least 2.45 yards per route and 5.0 yards per catch after the reception.
- Josh Gordon (2012)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (2014)
- A.J. Brown (2019)
- Justin Jefferson (2020)
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
- Puka Nacua (2023)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (2024)
All of those players, at one time or another, has spent time in the conversation as the best in the game at the position and in a sport that is seeing the value of receivers increase, Thomas’ upside is nearly impossible to overstate – and I’d argue it’s higher today than it was during his first season given the designing ability of this new coaching staff.
Jacksonville checked in as 18th per our Offense+ grading system in 2024, a season that saw Lawrence miss seven games and two of their top-3 receiving options combine to appear in 17 games. The AFC South lacks a top tier team – don’t be surprised if this is a team that takes a big step forward in the first year under Coen.
New Orleans Saints
Through two weeks, we were trying to get creative with nicknames for the Saints offense (91 points scored), but by the end of the year, it was clear that what we saw early was nothing more than a flash in the pan and that this offense had more questions than answers.
Injuries, of course, played into the dramatic change of fortunes, but a stale offense that ranked 25th in pass rate over expectation was in need of updating.
Enter Kellen Moore.
The one time decorated collegiate QB has been labeled as a sharp offensive mind since the Cowboys hired him in 2018 to lead their QB room and he’s largely proved that sentiment accurate. This is the fourth NFL franchise he’s been a part of, but it’s his first time at the top of the food chain and that should result in an even larger fingerprint for him as a part of an offense that has above average talent.
Moore’s ingenuity has been showcased most in play-action situations. The game is moving toward rewarding those who succeed in these plays (the 49ers led in play-action passer rating in 2023 on their way to winning the NFC, while the Eagles/Chiefs were both top-5 in that regard a season ago before meeting in the Super Bowl), and Moore is continually improving.
- Cowboys (2019-22): 103.5 play-action passer rating
- Chargers (2023): 107.9 play-action passer rating
- Eagles (2024): 116.1 play-action passer rating
Alvin Kamara ran for a career-high 950 yards in 2024, but he will enter this year as a 30-year old back with north of 2,000 touches on his resume. New Orleans saw their defense regress last season (19th in Defense+ after ranking sixth in 2023), but a stable offensive environment over the course of the entire season should allow for a bounce back on the other side of the ball and have this team in the playoff picture down the stretch after posting their worst record since 2005.
New England Patriots
Schrodinger’s Cat was a thought exercise that came about in the 1930’s with the primary idea being that, without observation, claims cannot be made.
His example was a cat in a box – without looking inside, you cannot say with certainty the status of the feline. Is it alive? Is it dead? Without any information, you’d be guessing blind.
Guessing blind is a result that New England is happy to do after a disaster of the 2024 season. The Pats ranked outside of the top-25 teams, per our custom grading, on both sides of the ball last season and that resulted in a cleaning of house when it comes to the coaching staff.
Will the Mike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, and Terrell Williams trio make this team competitive in the AFC East? We don’t know, but we know that what was in place was a failure, so what is there to lose? The 2023 Patriots graded ninth in our Defense+ metric, but they couldn’t produce anything close to that in 2024 (30th) and that put Drake Maye in an uncomfortable spot.
Even in a brutal situation, the rookie was able to flash at times and show off some of his raw potential. By acting swiftly, the Patriots are giving their franchise QB a chance to click with a new staff as opposed to blindly hoping that things would get better in a situation that we saw struggle.
Schrodinger’s Patriots – we don’t know if this roster is alive or dead and not knowing should be viewed as a step forward from 2024 because it comes with an upside scenario that didn’t seem to be accessible a season ago under Jerod Mayo.
Chicago Bears
Ben Johnson is a creative mind that is now in charge of getting a talented Bears offense to realize some of their potential. That’s a great place to be from a process standpoint, but it’s not what makes this a truly special move.
Even with limited help from the coaching staff, Caleb Williams was able to, by way of our custom QB+ grading system, show off the pedigree that he was drafted for as his rookie season wore on.
Williams’ QB+ Development
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- Games 1-4: 65.3 average QB+
- Games 5-9: 71.8 average QB+
- Games 10-17: 73.9 average QB+
I would have been projecting a nice step forward for Williams in Year 2 if nothing changed in terms of his circumstances – this move leads me to believe that we could be looking at the most improved signal caller in the league in 2025.
Your franchise is only as good as your quarterback allows you to be in this era of football and the Bears certainly seem to be a team to buy stock in now.
Furthering their long-term case is where Johnson came from. The most direct way to earn a spot in the postseason is to win your division and Chicago’s gain comes at the loss of Detroit. The NFC North is a loaded division and that’s not going to change, but by weakening the reigning champs, the Bears accelerated their rebuild in a significant way.
Our first run has the Bears projected for 6.5 wins and a 5.4% chance to make the playoffs – those may not sound like overwhelming numbers, but they are massive steps in the right direction all things considered as a mean expectation.
Detroit Lions
Annually, across all sports, teams prove to be a victim of their own successes. Sometimes this is evident by way of a player asking for a big payday, other times we see it in a win/loss regression as a result of a tougher schedule, and, in the case of teams like Detroit, we see it in coaching staff turnover.
The Lions won 15 games in 2024 and that fueled head coaching interest in both of their coordinators (Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn). Those shoes aren’t easy to fill and while both of those departures figure to be felt at different points in 2025, the return of Aidan Hutchinson could help mask any regression on the defensive side.
On offense, this team ran as hot as possible last season (top-3 in red zone conversion rate, touchdown percentage, and yards per drive among others), making a repeat performance nearly impossible even if nothing had changed.
But something did change. The voice inside of Jared Goff’s helmet will be different and with that comes significant risk.
- 2021 (without Johnson): 99.9 passer rating, 6.7 yards per attempt, 34.8% first down rate
- 2022-24 (with Johnson): 117.2 passer rating, 8.5 yards per attempt, 43.1% first down rate
For reference, those 2021 numbers look an awful lot like 2024 Aidan O’Connell (96.2 rating, 7.1 YPA, and 33.5% first down rate), a quarterback who lost five of seven starts in 2024.
Johnson’s schemes helped elevate Goff into the outskirts of the MVP conversation in 2024 and his departure could trend this offense closer to league average than juggernaut. With a first place schedule coming their way that will force to force them to score (the majority of their games come against Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, or Patrick Mahomes), the loss of Johnson could cost this team a handful of wins despite a very talented roster.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns went from an 11-win team in 2023 to a 14-loss one in 2024 and while this past season could be viewed as rock-bottom, things could go from bad to worse.
Myles Garrett’s resume can be stacked up with anyone during his tenure in the NFL and he’s made it clear that he’s not sold on the trajectory of this franchise.
Sack leaders since he was drafted in 2017
- T.J. Watt: 108.0
- Garrett: 102.5
- Aaron Donald: 83.0
- Danielle Hunter: 81.0
- Chris Jones: 78.5
Pressures per game over that stretch (min. 40 games played)
- Micah Parsons: 5.2
- Nick Bosa: 5.1
- Maxx Crosby: 4.5
- Josh Hines-Allen: 3.8
- Aaron Donald: 3.7
- Garrett: 3.6
“While I’ve loved calling this city my home, my desire to win and compete on the biggest stages won’t allow me to be complacent. The goal was never to go from Cleveland to Canton, it has always been to compete for and win a Super Bowl,”
The departure of Garrett would turn the one strength of this team into a weakness. We saw the Lions limp to a one-and-done playoff result following the loss of their defensive ace and that was with a historically efficient offense at their disposal, a luxury the Browns simply don’t have.
2024 Regular Season Defense+ Top Units
- Denver Broncos (10 wins)
- Philadelphia Eagles (14 wins)
- Minnesota Vikings (14 wins)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11 wins)
- Detroit Lions (15 wins)
- Seattle Seahawks (10 wins)
- Houston Texans (10 wins)
- Baltimore Ravens (12 wins)
- Cleveland Browns (3 wins)
- Green Bay Packers (11 wins)
2024 Regular Season Offense+ Bottom Units
23. Dallas Cowboys
24. Carolina Panthers
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
26. New England Patriots
27. Tennessee Titans
28. Houston Texans
29. Las Vegas Raiders
30. Chicago Bears
31. New York Giants
32. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland owned the top pressure rate a season ago and if that strength turns into a weakness, this team is going to own a top-5 pick again in 12 months. With less natural pressure comes the increased need to bring extra defenders and that was a hazardous adventure for the Browns last season.
Yards Per Blitzed Pass Vs. Browns
- 2021: 6.8 yards
- 2022: 6.2 yards
- 2023: 5.3 yards
- 2024: 7.8 yards
With the second overall pick, Cleveland has the opportunity to land a pedigree QB, but with Garrett likely out of town, this could be a one-step forward, two-step back offseason.
BOLD predictions for the upcoming NFL season … it's never too early!https://t.co/9KHk33L7DC
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) February 14, 2025
