The majority of NBA teams start the second half of the season on Thursday, Feb. 20, and the lines have been posted early.
Most betting markets are set into place come tipoff time, and that makes it hard to win against closing numbers, but by getting ahead of this Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers bet, you give yourself an avenue to a highly valuable bet.
NBA Pick for February 20
Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers
Ja Morant’s knee was a question entering the All-Star break, but with the shoulder issues seemingly behind him and the most recent injury being labeled as “soreness,” I’m OK with gambling on him playing, understanding that early lines put out by sportsbooks have to, at some level, take a cautious approach with their opening lines.
With me operating under the assumption that he plays, I’m comfortable projecting the Grizz to play at the break-neck pace we’ve seen them put on tape all season long. While the Pacers have been less willing to push tempo this year (sixth in pace) than last (second in 2023-24), they certainly aren’t a team that will focus on limiting the possession count.
Do they have the horses to keep up with Memphis?
Indiana is 2-6 outright in its eight fastest games this season, putting it in a tough spot should the track meet I project come to pass. Memphis has won eight of its 11 most up-tempo games and Morant sat out two of those losses.
In the lone such loss that featured an active Morant, the Grizz got pummeled by Anthony Davis, who registered 40 points on 68.2% shooting from the field and 16 rebounds. That outcome is one that I simply don’t view as likely from the Pacers, especially with an ailing Myles Turner (neck).
The pace projection is certainly something I am weighing heavily, but if you’re making a bet based on a single matchup like that, you’re going to lose over time. Even if I am wrong on that front, I have another out via another statistical edge that leans heavily in the road team’s favor.
Through the first half of the season, the Grizzlies ranked second in rebound rate, a true strength that should be on full display against the 28th-ranked Pacers.
Whether Turner plays or not, I have a hard time thinking they are competitive on the glass, and considering that they are 3-14 in their 17 worst rebounding games this season, they are in trouble if Memphis enforces its will physically upon them for 48 minutes.
Those three wins weren’t exactly impressive. They beat the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets for two of them, two teams that aren’t anywhere near as talented as the Grizzlies, with the third victory coming against the upstart Detroit Pistons.
In theory, that win over Detroit provides Indiana backers with hope, but in that game, Cade Cunningham and Malik Beasley combined to miss 23 of 31 shots from the field — do you really see that happening for a Morant/Desmond Bane tandem that has their 2-guard on a career pace in FG%?
this is a sweet move by Desmond Bane pic.twitter.com/eb6YHipj32
— eric (@EricTweetsNBA) February 13, 2025
The Pacers are a bottom-10 defense in terms of opponent FG% inside of 10 feet, a flaw that Morant’s endless athleticism figures to exploit regularly. Alternate lines will become available with time (for now, the only available one is +245 for a double-digit-point Memphis win) and I’ll post my exposure on that front as they pop up and Morant’s status comes into focus closer to game time.
I’m locking in a simple ATS bet for now, understanding that I’ll likely be firing more as more information becomes available — this looks like a mismatch to me.
We also have a betting trend at play with this pick …
Pick: Grizzlies -2 (-110, FanDuel)
