After a full schedule yesterday, we have 10 teams in action before the NBA goes on hiatus for the All-Star break. Below is where I’ve settled for my Thursday betting card; make sure to lock in these prices while you can and check back daily for updates as to where I stand!
NBA Picks for February 13
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
I think the Timberwolves are a real threat to do damage when everything is working in their favor, but with a banged-up Anthony Edwards, a break coming, and the Thunder on the other sideline with both teams coming off of a back-to-back? That’s not what I would call an ideal situation.
Oklahoma City owns the league’s top defense (1.02 points allowed per possession) and, as you might assume, Minnesota struggles in a big way when it isn’t scoring in bunches (6-15 this season when being held to 1.08 points per possession). That’s not a surprise — and those six wins? They came when holding their opponent to under 0.98 points per possession, a rate that the Thunder have been held to once since Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving 2023, that is.
Their worst showing since Dec. 1 is 1.04, and history suggests that even that level of production could be enough tonight if their always-stingy defense rounds out the first half of the season how they’ve played up to this point.
In this game, we have conflicting styles of offense. While the Thunder rank eighth in pace, the ‘Wolves rank 25th, so I naturally wanted to check on how each team performs when the pace is opposite of what they aim for.
- MIN: 7-8 in their 15 fastest games
- Includes a pair of losses in Portland and a loss to Washington
- OKC: 19-2 in their 21 slowest games
- Both losses against the Dallas Mavericks
Covering big numbers on the road, especially against talented teams, is a tough ask. I’m not saying it can’t happen – the Thunder can blow out any team in this league on any night – but I’m approaching it another way.
Jalen Williams is as good a Robin as there is in this league and he’s cleared 15 points in 14 of 15 games since being held in check against the Boston Celtics in early January (the lone exception was a 13-point effort that was the result of him playing just 26 minutes in a 31-point blowout of the Suns after he had missed consecutive games).
Skeptics will point to Minnesota holding him to 14 points on New Year’s Eve, but I’m not sweating that. SGA was having one of those games (40 points on 23 shots) and Williams, a career 37.8% three-point shooter and 80.1% free-throw shooter, went 1-of-4 both from distance and the stripe. Regress those to the mean and I think 15-20 points is more than a reasonable assumption tonight.
SGP: Jalen Williams to score 15+ points, Thunder first half, Thunder game (+101, FanDuel
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks
We are looking at a pair of teams that are operating in a world without an All-Star that headlined them for years. The Heat didn’t replace Jimmy Butler as much as they simply moved on, and while the Mavs thought they were getting Anthony Davis to supplement the Luka Doncic usage, he’s sidelined for the foreseeable future.
I have zero confidence in the stability of either of these teams and it starts on the offensive end.
Neither of these teams posts great depth and both played yesterday. In their games last night (Miami in Oklahoma City and Dallas hosting Golden State), we saw their embarrassingly low floors when it comes to putting the ball in the bucket.
- Heat: Eight points in the fourth quarter
- Mavericks: Only 111 points in a game where Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson shot 12-24 from 3
While the offenses can have holes poked in them, I thought the defenses did just fine. Dallas held Steph Curry to 25 points on 23 shots while Miami gave up just 13 two-point Shai Gilgeous-Alexander two-point shots across his 38 minutes. Neither of those teams is going to be asked to defend a star in that range tonight and that leads me to believe that we get a few stretches of ugly offensive basketball.
- Max Christie
- Naji Marshall
- Davion Mitchell
- Nikola Jovic
No disrespect to those players, but they all got double-digit shots up last night — not exactly the path to offensive upside. The stars on both of these teams went off (Bam Adebayo and Kyrie Irving combined for 69 points on 59.1% shooting) and yet, they totaled 212 points.
They are obviously in different matchups tonight, but with so much being asked of so few players on both of these teams (Irving didn’t have a single assist in his 40 minutes), there are more paths to scoring failure than success in my eyes.
Pick: Under 222 (-110, FanDuel)
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
These two teams squared off last night and twice over the past five days – Vegas has essentially used those two games to line this one. While I think that’s a logical move, if Zion Williamson suits up for his first back-to-back since October (something that is at least possible given the All-Start Break, New Orleans is off until next Friday), I think it’s wrong.
Across those two games, the Kings have had no answer for the Pelicans do-it-all forward. In 56 minutes, he’s made 24-of-37 shots, gotten to the free throw line 20 times, and posted a +17 point differential (-30 with him off the court).
There’s no one like Zion Williamson and there’s no doubt about his on-court abilities
He has elite athleticism that not many, if any, at his size possess
But he’s also incredibly skilled with great footwork, playmaking, and touch
Just stay healthy 🙏pic.twitter.com/Skqec8eNiF
— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) February 9, 2025
How has Sacramento won both of those games despite the greatness of Williamson? In the first meeting, they lost three of four quarters but got hot enough for a single period to overcome that (45 points in the third quarter) and last night saw New Orleans struggle to throw a stone into the ocean from deep (8-of-32 from three-point land, their worst shooting performance in a home game in 336 days).
Those developments will result in losses, but are they sticky?
I say no. Their inability to make Williamson uncomfortable, especially with the team giving him full reign to soak up as much usage as possible after moving on from Brandon Ingram at the trade deadline. In their most recent six games prior to last night, New Orleans had found a rhythm with the long ball (41.4%) and even more telling than that from a predictive standpoint was, again, the Kings’ struggles to pick at weaknesses.
The Pelicans turned the ball over on just 8.1% of their possessions last night. This is a 12-42 team, but, entering that game, they were 4-2 when posting a sub-9% turnover rate.
On the flip side, the Kings were saved by a 27-point outburst from Keon Ellis, a second-year player who didn’t have 27 points across a two-game stretch in the five weeks prior.
In this post-De’Aaron Fox world, the Kings are a self-creating, jump-shooting team that has a low floor despite talented pieces. Their assist rate, prior to last night, was 54.6% after the trade, down from 62.3% in their first 48 games with their offensive efficiency and pace down roughly 2%.
We don’t yet have news on Williamson. He’s played in all five of their games this month, but as mentioned, he hasn’t been asked to suit up on consecutive nights since returning to action in January. I’m approaching with caution for now and will pounce harder as we get closer to game time should we get confirmation on his status. But if he’s in there, I think we are getting some nice value with the home team.
Pick: Pelicans +8 (-110, FanDuel for 0.75 units
Pick: Pelicans moneyline (+270, FanDuel for 0.25 units)
